Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Invest 95L Forms in Carib but is this the Earl the Models Been Talking On? Most likely no... Danielle Remake? Surprise Invest Forms

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Introducing Invest 95L
20% chances of developing.

Yes there is a floater.

Okay we go today from laying low on the models and possibilities in the Caribbean to "WOW LOOK AT THAT!!! GIVE IT AN INVEST AND FLOATER!!!"  Happens often and that bugs me with the 5 day that never seems to verify but we won't go on a rant right now on that. The models show a similar track for now. That brings us to a question. The long range GFS model has been showing us a system that goes up into the Gulf of Mexico. IF that model is correct than this Invest is not that storm.

The regular clues are messy.
Oh and there's a purple splotch by Africa suddenly ;)

Oddly the sudden yellow X is not where the purple splotch in SW Carib is..

Following the beautiful ULL in the BOC ...
..this system could do Danielle.

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Or it could pull a bit to the right at the end game.

Either way this is not what the models have been advertising 

 Note that though this does look like the same system the set up is different and yet some models do take this to Tampico. The models for the late June storm do not go to Mexico, no, no, no... so did the  models miss this system? Did the NHC ignore it as the models were pointing to something else? So many questions in this tropical drama.

Sorry I wasn't here earlier but I was out shopping for gowns as I have a wedding in September in Miami for one of my kids... if no Hurricane Hermine doesn't show up to mess up the party. Who picks prime time in the tropics for a wedding in Miami? I guess the son who was born during Hurricane Hugo season and whose 3rd birthday was held at a house where we had a generator on Miami Beach while there was a curfew and Miami Beach was closed after Hurricane Andrew. Yeah...that said I'm sure it will be fine. So while I was looking at gowns the NHC puts up a yellow X. By the way... the theme for the wedding is Vintage Garden as in NO YELLOW ;) I know I'm digressing. Annoyed cause the NHC poo pooed the convection by the Yucatan but today with a Yellow X and 20% chance they go hog wild on Invests and Floaters. A lot of politics there but they do their best to keep us informed. I do have a life beyond weather ;)

There's a stronger chance that something will form...
...than I wear this dress .... but I might.

 Convection is back again by the Yucatan

Kind of interesting to have a low 20% yellow X and an Invest.
Again not going on a rant so let's move on...

And there's the roll trying to get going in the Caribbean...
.. moving towards the Yucatan

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Looks familiar doesn't it.
Reminds me of that old song.. 
Sung by Peter Someone

Except there is one difference here... 
...this Invest could have it's eyes set on the US coastline.

Let me say this about the Invest.
It's sort of a crap shoot what will happen.
The high to the North is not as strong.
Danielle set up did not feature a beautiful ULL..
Well the ULL actually made landfall ..
Danielle should have looked as good as the ULL

I almost blogged on this Upper Level Low to show..'s only an Upper Level Low.
But they do become steering factors...

Ye Olde 7 Day Loop.
Still shows the High doing the Slide East.
Moisture creeps in from the BOC.

Note Rob from Crown Weather tries to explain the possibilities.
He's analytical and he does a good job.

There's a lot of discussion online. is a good place to learn a lot.

Sort of an eeny meany miney moe...
...this doesn't seem to be Earl.

Earl may form nearby and move towards the North more.

Lastly worth noting this was a weak, westbound Tropical Wave.

Do not turn your back this year on that wave train.
Don't buy the farm in Jamaica because you heard SAL was around.
Saharan Dust is always around in June.
That's why June is too soon for Cape Verde Storms.

Note the wave train is getting higher.
Closer where it needs to be.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm onTwitter

Ps... I'll update the Invest in real time.
In real time we have strong storms moving towards the Carolinas.

Everyone is talking about the noise suddenly noticed in the Caribbean.
Mike on Facebook had discussion on it late night.
And... it showed up in an article in my Keys Mail Box yesterday.

Hmnnnn ....
Inquiring minds want to know..

Wrong color... 
Victorian Garden theme September in Miami during Hurricane Season.


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