Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 01, 2016

6 People Dead in Dominican Republic From 97L .. Moving Towards Jamaica. Forecast to Strengthen

6 people have died in Dominican Republic.
This No Name Storm is a real killer.
And it is headed tomorrow to Jamaica.
Not a lot of difference between Tropical Disturbance...
...with 40 plus mph winds and squalls.
And a barely there Tropical Storm.
So semantics and recon with "maintenance issues" that left.
Will define the perception of this system.
It is forecast to become a Tropical Storm at any time.
The upgrade should be to TS as it has TS winds.
Officially it's a red circle with 90% chances of development.
It has a 100% chance of more misery and possibly death.

Something about mid level and low level not aligned. 
I'm sure it's interaction with Dominican Republic was negative.
Negative for Invest 97L as well as the people who died.

It may not be perfect, however other Tropical Storms looked worse.

Note language in the report above. 
Post game report.

"The tropical depression became Tropical Storm Earl while centered about 500 n mi south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana near 1800 UTC 31 August based on aircraft reconnaissance data. The center remained difficult to locate by satellite, and, in fact, multiple centers were reported by aircraft reconnaissance for the next couple of days. Occasionally, a new center would appear to form which made tracking extremely difficult."

So we have a very strong Tropical ...Disturbance.
Responsible for 6 deaths in Dominican Republic.
Headed towards Jamaica.
It has model support for intensification to near Hurricane strength.
It's a small storm infamous for hard to read centers.
And has consistently marched West since near Cape Verde Islands.
A few passes showed no closed center.
Again it is a SMALL systems with poor alignment.
Been there before haven't we?

Let's move on, name the storm.
Tropical Storm Earl gets more attention than "Invest 97L"
And as it is moving towards Jamaica where flooding happens.
Poorly built homes can wash away down hillsides.
I think its responsible to name it.
Issue advisories, watches, warnings, etc.
Rather than pretend it's just a tropical wave.
It may not be a strong tropical storm.
But it is one very dangerous Tropical Wave...
...with winds of over 40 mph.

Just my thoughts.
Will see if they upgrade it later tonight or tomorrow.
Hate to think they are waiting to send another plane..
..down from Louisiana.

At least name it a Tropical Depression.

TCHP.jpg (666×375)

Whatever it is hits that deep red water.
It needs to be properly aligned to properly utilize it.

It's a small system.
Small systems can spin up fast.
If they suddenly align themselves... models insist it will do.
Time will tell.

Still open wave or worthy of TD status?
NHC says "not yet"
They also have been mum on what happened to their plane today.
New recon goes in tomorrow.

A Tropical Depression it possibly is.... 
...headed towards a very populated island.

Hope they are prepared.
Are you prepared?

A model this afternoon develops a hurricane in the GOM.
Long term, long range, fantasy like more than 5 days.
But it's time to take this season seriously!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter


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