Invest 97L now has 60% chances of development in 5 days.
Note the track for these Invests above has been consistent.
Each update an extrapolation of the previous one.
Note Invest 97L is moving rapidly West across the basin.
Invest 96L lags behind following in it's moist wake.
There is every reason to believe that Invest 97L could develop.
It would need to SLOW DOWN and hit a sweet spot.
Sweet Spot = Low Shear + HOT Water.
The sheer speed of 97L is inhibiting it's organization.
As it tries to wrap it outruns it's premature circulation.
At times you can see it and then it rushes off to the West.
Too fast to let the circulation totally wrap.
We've had a few fast movers like this in years with a strong high.
And sometimes they develop in the Caribbean.
If it gets that far watch out Mexico and possibly Texas.
The oceanic heat map shows how that could be a problem.
These push me pull me attempts at development can be seen below.
Also you can see Invest 96L left far behind.
The Salient information is below.
Note some models show Cat 3 Status.
Do I have your attention now?
Again this is down the road.
Long term vs short term.
See how easy they are to define now vs the other day.
Round, rolling along too fast to develop.
If and when it slows down...
Note as it reaches the end of the High's strength...
...it hits hotter water temps.
Might be a lethal combination...
...should it get that far.
And at this point it may indeed.
I'll go into depth tomorrow on this.
And discuss Invest 96L behind it.
Also viable according to some models.
In truth tonight it's hard to think on much.
The passing of Dave Schwartz today has eclipsed the waves.
Everyone knew that Dave was ill, battling cancer with courage.
And everyone knew Dave had beat cancer before.
Everyone hoped he would do so again.
Today he passed on.
The man had so much life.
So much humor, wit and creativity.
He made weather fun.
He made weather easy.
And he made people feel good.
An older woman years back told me he practically saved her life.
I asked, "How?"
She said she had been ill, confined to bed for months.
She was in pain, she could not sleep.
She would watch Dave late at night.
He made her smile, he made her laugh.
He made her forget the pain.
She felt he helped save her life.
Or at least her sanity and emotional health.
In truth that was Dave.
He spoke fast and cheerfully explained the weather.
He brought life to far away places.
He educated many on how to read satellite imagery.
From old women recuperating to young kids watching TWC..
He was loved.
Mike from Spaghettimodels.com said it all:
Over the years so many people have told me that.
One of the best teams at TWC was Jim Cantore and Dave Schwartz.
At times they worked side by side.
It was the greatest times.
In his own words this was Dave Schwartz
Witty and playful to the end.
This was Dave talking fast doing the Tropical Update
Check it out...
2007... Dave doing shtick.
Like only Dave could.
Dave was like your favorite teacher in high school.
He made boring classes fun and interesting.
He was your favorite uncle at Thanksgiving dinner.
Dave was a big smile mixed with passion.
We remember him fondly.
Hard to think on his passing.
We wish his loved ones prayers.
We were all made to feel like he was our family.
Just so sad.
Dave was an Icon.
Plain, simple and true.
A good soul.
Ps... once Dave danced and spun on air..
Singing a song, cracking up the crew..
Couldn't find that video.. it's there somewhere.
Miss you Dave-O