11PM 60 MPH UPDATED ....EARL. 60 MPH Moving Towards Hurricane Status. Blossoming. More African Waves.

You can see the strong High pushing Earl West on the loop above.

You can also see the rain over South Florida.

Look at that Darth Vader sort of swirl in the Atlantic.

11 PM

Salient points here....

Winds 60 MPH

West at 16 mph

996 mb

1. 60 MPH. From Killer Wave to 60 MPH TS in 12 hours...

2. Moving West but at a slower speed as it nears land.

3. Some discussion on lower barometric pressure found by recon.

Seems they found a lower pressure but it is being discounted.

Or at least not figured in though mentioned in discussion.

Note it says they found it at 996 OR LOWER... 

Mid-tropospheric high is centered bullseye over Earl.

Continue reading...

Note people keep asking me if the rain is from Earl.

The rain over South Florida is from a trough that is located over the State.

No it's not.

There was some talk earlier this week ...

..of enhanced rain because of a forecasted storm in the Caribbean.

Not saying it doesn't help to juice up the atmosphere on it's N side.

But Earl is way down there and its not directly connected.

Lots of lightening.

Direct TV here is out.

Luckily electric came back on.

Localized flooding.

Just another day in South Florida in Summer.

Water close in is hot.

Upper air conditions favor continued intensification.

You never know for sure with storms like this but...

...models indicate this could be a Hurricane briefly.

So odd... 9 AM NHC insists it doesn't have a closed low.

9 PM they find 60 MPH winds.

What next?

Stay tuned.

I'll update after morning visible.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

***

Okay back from the Mall... 

...Crazy thunderstorm in Hollywood Florida.

Actually at Aventura Mall the lightning was so strong...

Someone asked me nervously if this was from "the tropical storm"

No... a bit yes ... there is some added instability in the air here.

That red dot is directly over my house.

Okay I do shop at Belk and purple is my color.

I digress.

Earl is popping right now down in the Caribbean.

Shear is lighter.

High has less influence.

Moving slower.

Water is warm.

Conditions are basically good for short term development.

Short term as in before it runs into Belize.

Some models continue to see Earl getting into the BOC.

Other models see it dying slowly in the mountains of Mexico.

We'll see.

Note shear is not such a big problem just now.

This is the Sweet Spot the models have been showing..

Prime Real Estate for fast development.

Sort of like Condos on Miami Beach.

I want to point out that there are more systems out there.

Not much discussion on them but entering Stage Right.

A rolling wave much like 97L and 96L before that.

You can also see how Earl is blossoming.

So is the wave no one is discussion highlighted in purple below

I guess they want to take them one system at a time..

Models have shown a storm getting up into our part of the world.

GOM in play but then again some models showed that for Earl.

There are plenty more where Earl came from...

Stay tuned.

I'll be back.

Earl deserved the upgrade.

It does have a closed circulation.

It might not be pretty but most minimal Tropical Storms...

...don't look pretty. 

Honestly.

If the ASCAT doesn't hit it exactly right...

...it can miss a small closed center.

And, after being stronger than expected in the Islands..

..it had some interaction with Hispaniola that did not kill it.

When that does not kill it after traveling thru SAL in Atlantic..

...and tangling with mountains in the Dominican Republic.

There is something there holding it together even if we can't see it.

The wind imagery doesn't always work with small storms.

Dropsondes work best.

As far as we have come we have so far to go.

African Waves may be the things meteorologists dream of this year.

This video always reminds me of stories Bill Gray told me about ...

...seeding clouds in Africa with Joanne Simpson.

A true pioneer in our field.

Hint... She's the woman in the group ;)

Nothing lasts forever... and Earl will go into history soon.

Fiona is out there waiting to be born.

Sweet Tropical Dreams..

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps...

That's dedicated to my daughter Rivky who.. sings a lot of Taylor Swift.

* * * 

Post from earlier today..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/155812.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Will upgrade in detail this afternoon after data from recon is processed.

Tropical Storm Earl already responsible for at least 6 deaths is moving towards Jamaica and Belize down the road.

Please check back and follow www.spaghettimodels.com while I'm out having lunch with my son Levi.

Actually as he was checking his mail... 

... I checked up on Earl :)

Stay tuned.

Good call NHC

Besos Bobbistorm