Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

UPDATED! WNW Tropical Storm Fiona. Forecast to Stay a TS Moving NW. How Good Are the Models? Small Storms are Harder to Forecast. Gaston Coming Soon? Lady Gaga Gives $$ Have You?

At 11 PM Fiona is barely maintaining TS status.
After a period today with little convection around it's core.
Fiona had a burst of convection ... sort of pulsed up.

NHC Keeps Fiona as a Minimal Tropical Storm.
Pulls the track for now to the WNW.

FIONA TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


Relevant discussion from 11 PM is as follows:


What is obvious is Fiona is struggling to stay alive.
The cone below IS the 5 day.
Except for the GFDL that makes Fiona a Hurricane.
Most models "lose it" after a few days...
My concern is it could be downgraded...
...get further West and pulse up again.
But that's a long shot for a system barely alive tonight.

You can see this drama play out yourself

wv_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Going wide you can barely find Fiona.
Again it's a small system.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Personally I think it's more likely a Tropical Depression...
...with some strong squalls in there somewhere.
Closed system yes... 
..very meager Tropical Storm.

Keep watching.

Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter







FIONA
Moving her way across the Atlantic Ocean.
Not a deep signature there but it is a Tropical Storm.
Note waves coming off Africa behind Fiona.



Fiona was upgraded because of a better satellite presentation...
...and better ASCAT pass.


When a storm is out East of 55 West we rely on ASCAT often.

Current discussion explains what we have been saying.
A lot of meteorological mumbo jumbo...
..well written but you if you have any ADD I'd stay away.


Cliff Notes:

Warm water + low shear - VERY DUSTY DRY AIR = TS

Fiona not forecast to become a Hurricane at this time.

Cone:


Understand if Fiona stays weak she takes the bottom part of the cone.
IF she intensifies she takes the top part of the cone.
Wide cone on the 5th Day.

Does it end up at 28 N 
Or down near 23 N
Extrapolated makes a huge difference...

Odds are she stays out to sea...
Odds are she dies out at sea...
But I can't rule it out that it gets further South and West than expected.
When I can rule that out without a shadow of a doubt...
I'll be glad to laugh this storm off...
Again a storm behind this one will be forming as well.
Typically the lead storm goes more to the North...
...the next one stays more to the South.
The more to the South any storm gets the further West it gets!

Fiona has a long, long, long way to go..
With more negatives than positives.
Hard to even find it below:

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

If I was a betting person I'd breathe a sigh of relief..
Yet when you have a tropical system to the SE of you...
Pay attention, check back often.
We never want to hear the line Mark Twain made famous..


And don't get sucked into wild rumors online...


Models for Fiona are shown below:


I do want to point out something interesting though...
Note to the SW of Fiona there is a small wave like feature...
...that looks at times stronger than Fiona.


That swirl has stronger squalls than Fiona
What is it and how does it help Fiona?


Fiona has a center and it's a small Tropical Storm.
Fiona has some bands that are sucking up tropical moisture.
Sort of like bulking up to fight Uncle SAL
The wave to the SW has stronger convection..

That's a lot of SAL.
SAL is sneaking steroids it seems....
... wonder where he's getting them from?


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html

I have problems seeing how small Fiona busts NW into the Atlantic.
Rarely happens unless a system is larger and much stronger.

See the weakness in the double barreled High?
See the LOW far to it's NNW


IF it cannot bust through the high...
...if it gives up due to the dry dust..
It will ...could...wander West as a weak remnant wave.

That is NOT the main game right now.
Main game has Fiona hitting the road NW into the Atlantic.
That's the forecast package put out by the NHC!

Local weather person who is good in NC said it well.
Fiona is a small system and that makes it harder to forecast.


He also feels there is a wide spread in the models...

Stay tuned.

Oh and there's a yellow circle off of Africa..
Gaston is in the wings waiting.
Very long range models show Gaston getting closer to the US coastline.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Ps... Lady Gaga has announced she will send donations to Louisiana.
How much is not know but for every celebrity who does so it reminds people..
..to donate to www.redcross.org



For those who remember Hurricane Hugo...
Oprah's support after Hugo helped raise much needed money.


A close friend of mine for years and years is Lanny Smith AKA Earthman
He made a great song after Hurricane Andrew.
It was on the air often back in those days....
...in response to all the love and charity people gave after Andrew


Peace out..
Love ya Lanny..












3 Comments:

At 5:19 PM, Blogger Houston lurker said...

Really enjoy your blog. Thanks for the updates! Keeping an eye from Houston

 
At 8:42 PM, Blogger michael m said...

Great work Bobbi! I live on Long Island, so am always concerned. I appreciate your scholarship and sense of humor!

 
At 11:38 AM, Blogger BobbiStorm said...

Thanks!

Keeping an eye on everyone from Brownsville to Maine.. it's a big coastline.

A sense of humor a good thing to have during Hurricane Season.. and or always :)

 

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