Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 15, 2016

98L Odds Up to Be Fiona But Models Sniffing out Gaston & a Hurricane Threat For Labor Day.. Possibly? Long Range Models Are For Entertainment Only

20% in 2 Days
30% in 5 Days

NHC playing hard ball with Invest 98L
Conservative for now.

Why? Look at what's to the North of 98L

You got a real strong High.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Invest 98L moving so fast...
Escaped the NHC Floater.
15 mph west NOT...

Lots of SAL still.
You'd think it's a no go.
Yet Invest 98L is not giving up.
NHC is not listening to the models...
...for good reason.
Too early to trust models.
And next wave hasn't shown it's face yet.
That red dot on the edge of the left of floater...
...was Invest 98L
moved on..

Conservative is good.
Ridiculous to scream shark when a wave is near Africa.
But mets in Carolinas watching this wave and...
...the wave behind it.
Time will tell.

For now enter stage right...

Truth each wave that develops is a player for the ... wave.
Waves work together sometimes.
Battling the negatives.
Stronger together.

A lead wave can block...
..or steer the one behind to the South.. West bound.

Either way models past a week are... thrills.
Yet we all watch 

Remember it's really early here in the process.
This wave is far away and to be honest...
.. most meteorologists are salivating over the wave behind it.
The wave the models see with their Xray eyes...

It's very likely we will be tracking Fiona and Gaston soon.
Invest 98L in theory becomes Fiona.
Fiona is forecast to be a Fish storm for now.
That's 4 F words if you are keeping track...
And Gaston rolls off and is pushed further South.
Gets further West.

My problem with this is that it's too soon to make that call.
The pattern is there for a named hurricane to get far to the West.
Again when you have multiple viable waves the odds go up.
The shear can only battle so many waves at one time.
SAL gets distracted (if this was a movie)
One gets through.
Labor Day?

For the Florida Folks...

Stronger image than Cuban Coffee huh?
Mind you with this strong high you would think this would be a ..
Cuban Hurricane.

Wait a few frames... 

Hello Carolina!!

Really the fine people of Georgia must feel either lucky...
...or unloved.

With a High that is so strong it practically destroyed Louisiana ...
...without even a named storm.
The High has been the HUGE player here.
At this point hard to believe the High allows this to get by.

IF the models, the very long range models, verify..
The East Coast could have a Hurricane to worry on as...
Labor Day approaches.

Note if the current trend continues...
It has a problem forming, gets further West.
Models pull to the left a bit.

Again the NHC floater satellite can't keep up with it.
As it was moving way faster than the forecast 15 MPH W
That bugs me as they did not forecast it to move that fast.
Problem perhaps?

The Invest from NRL ... 
... left behind in the wake of a fast moving wave.
And moving that fast can lose it's center.
Same as image on the top of this blog.
They will adjust it in real time.
And that is how this goes.. in REAL time.

Still way too many variables for what could become Fiona start worrying on Gaston.

But putting it out there.

A good long range model to watch.
Posted on the top left of Spaghetti Models

What about SAL you ask?
It's there. 
Slight slot for 98L to take advantage of...

While watching the High, SAL and Invest 98L
Read up on old storms from the past.

October storm. October 15th.
Made landfall at seasonal high tide.

IF anything gets into the Bahamas..
..over the Gulf Stream.
Watch out.

For those of you who are not surfers.
Advice from the Big Kahuna

So let's just watch Invest 98L ...
...see what it's got.
How the models play out.
And keep watching those loops... 
...model animations.
Back later.

Keep dancing 98L

Besos BobbiStorm
Ps Only in the movies does Gidget marry Moondoggie ;)

But that's entertainment 

I know Fishing... breathe ;)
After I see the movie... 
...we'll see if I'm giggling or what..
California kids haha... Luau...
Miami Beach kids got the Fountainebleu and Eden Roc


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