Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

UPDATED! 98L 90% Red Circle Needs to Beat SAL... Being Squished Today. Needs to Pull It Together to Make the Models Get the Gold. New Wave Forecast to be GASTON Departs Africa

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After looking like it was flat lining all day.
Invest 98L wrapped itself up into a ball.
If it can maintain that red ball of convection ... will be upgraded to Tropical Depression Status.

8 PM has it at 90% chances.
That's as good as it gets with the NHC
Sort of go for lift off... if....
...if it maintains current signs intensification.

Without sending Recon into the disturbance they can still make that call.

Numerous tools are used and the models have consistently agreed.

This is NOT a Pokemon.
It's from the NRL site that allows meteorologists to study the Invest.
An INVEST means the area is being... investigated.
You know for signs of life...
Looks a bit like a blue Martian no?

98L looked incredible earlier...
...then assaulted by SAL it looked MEH
But tonight it's putting up a fight.
Looking better.
Note some models up it to named status...
..and then lose it down the road.
Keep watching...

You can see it creeping along below

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Models mostly take it out to sea...
A few take it more to the West.
The consensus takes it NW.

Nice link on Spaghetti Models.

Stay tuned.
Not much has changed other than it's holding it's own.
Forecast to become a named system very soon.
Far, far away and models insist on this being a Fish.

Further East...........
....departing Africa is another wave.
Next wave will be Invest 99L
Next wave may come much closer to the US.
It may come much closer to the Islands.
A lot of discussion on that in time...

Not going to lie to you.
Invest 98L looks paltry all in all.

But it's there.
And NHC is taking it ..seriously.

You may need a magnifying glass.
See the yellow dot in the middle of the white area?
Here I'll make it larger for you...

Naked swirl with one bright dot of convection...
NHC makes the call so waiting to see what they say...
Personally I'd wait a day or so.. 
..see what it looks like in the morning light.
(That's a saying, we know what it looks like now)

Note the new wave departing Africa...
... see bigger wave behind that one.
That's 1 - 2 -3 waves.

More if you look across Africa as a whole.

I don't want to smash anyone's fortune cookie here but...
Invest 98L soon to be Fiona (maybe) or at least a TD.. not expected to do much else but gain the name.
Hostile conditions, cooler water temperatures.
Dry air and shear await it in a few days.

But one of those waves will develop into a Hurricane.
I do believe so.

Stay tuned.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. most likely an upgrade to Tropical Depression in the near term.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...
...if you haven't continue reading earlier discussion 

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Tuesday Morning and back at square one watching loops of Invest 98L trying to stay alive and maintain that coveted prize name of Fiona. Worried it won't make the bronze right now, but conditions may improve. Models like it enough and even see it forming, lifting NW into the Atlantic as GASTON moves onto the map in a few days. I'm not feeling it ...  I can see where it's possible but by all rules of meteorology 98L has to be strong enough to develop a clear center and only that center would sniff out the weakness in the huge High and lunge for it like a good athlete. This is where we are today, Tuesday morning, watching an elongated but strong wave move West underneath a strong, heavy High. Tropical development, like life itself, is all about timing.

The bright yellow and blue is our hero.
The 50 shades of gray in the top left corner... our antagonist.
Well if you hate tropical storms you could flip that...

You can barely make out our Invest below.
You can see the High hovering over it.
Strangling it's structure.
Making it hard to breathe.
Breathing to a tropical system is ventilating. 

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You can see the faint weakness developing in the High...

Remember when you were a child and you learned to ride a bike?

A lot of parents today record everything and put it online.

Watch Marcus trying to use his bike with the training wheels.

Got to watch out for those bumps....

And then one day you get TALL ENOUGH...
to reach the pedals and try it without the training wheels.
Note a wave needs to develop.
A Tropical Storm needs Hot Towers.
Vertical intensification 
Needs to reach up into the atmosphere...
...or it goes more to the West.
And sometimes misses it's door way to fame...
..or fame is delayed as it gets further West.

Time will tell...

Riding with out training wheels....

There is still the question of dust.
Invests are allergic to dust.
SAL strangling 98L 
Could change.

A close up #SELFIE of 98L

Shows SAL wrapped all the way into 98L

So if 98L intensifies as the models forecast.
It can reach up on it's tippy toes...
..and sneak through the weakness in the high that is forecast to open.

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GFS shows a stronger Fiona.
GFS makes a sharp left turn.
EURO... a bit skeptical.
EURO keeps it more to the west, a weaker storm.

I hate to choose Veronica over Betty here...

At the moment I'm with the EURO.

Message to 98L:
Prove me wrong. 
I'll be glad to go with the GFS...

Right now all I see is Squishy vs Fiona.
Note models that break go West...
The rest go North West.

Stay tuned.

NHC gives this a red velvet cake walk to be Fiona


As for all the rest of the soon to be storms....
...I'm trying to focus on Invest 98L
Deal with them once they are here.
Sort of like that weakness in the high...

It's a buy one get one half price for sushi on Tuesday at Muras ;)
The satellite image  below shows 3 possible named storms.

Nice pocket that "GASTON" has now ... 
Let's see what it does once it swims in the ocean.
As 98L moves to around 45 W in theory...
...if the models are right.
Something changes.

Stay tuned.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Ps A song from back in 1995 when we had a parade of named storms.


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