A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, August 21, 2016
3 Tropical Systems. Model Wars. Discussion on Social Media and Why People Look on Social Media for Weather Info
Where our players are on the maps.
Going to start with strict Tropical Discussion as we have 3 tropical systems of varying strength and potential on the maps. I'll talk about the past, present and future possibilities. At the end of that I'll go long on thoughts shared on line in what we call social media. Social Media is an odd word as it's meant to imply it only happens online with people who could be strangers or family who doesn't really want to come for a visit but who likes our posts on Facebook. Some people do share privately in email groups sharing loops, models and tropical analysis, others do it old school style on message boards and some do it in real time on Twitter. So stay tuned for my thoughts on that if you are interested in knowing what the GFS and EURO are cooking up for supper. As always, thanks for reading and your shared thoughts on various social media.
The track for Invest 99L and 90L closer to the African coast:
Note the locations of projected track for the Invests is consistent.
The track remains the same.
Whether 90L steals the name Gaston from 99L is up for grabs.
If you think back to Earl you will remember...
We were watching one Invest expected to become Earl...
..and a new Invest sprang up further West and got the name Earl.
Things like this happen in the tropics.
The unpredictability of tropical systems makes them so compelling.
Bottom line on the Hurricane Model Wars.
$ and ingenuity.
The budget for forecasters in NWS and NHC is below par.
The Euro itself uses many parameters the GFS does not.
As Marshall Shepherd put it well..it all comes down to $
I sat in a car years ago with 3 forecasters.
1 Past Director a Deputy Director and Lead Forecaster.
They talked endlessly about one thing.
Lack of money to fund better models, forecasts, etc.
I won't name names... but telling you honestly.
It all comes down to money.
Or often the lack of money given to the NHC.
So the GFS aka American Model rarely wins in the Atlantic.
In the Pacific it oddly does a better job.
Dynamics in the Pacific are different than the Atlantic obviously.
But similar enough to think after being tweaked GFS would score higher.
The EURO aka European Model tends to be better.
The Euro tends to sniff out tropical formation better.
GFS much like the much aligned CMC cries wolf too much.
Google it and this battle goes back for years.
What is really going on today?
Let's look at the visible image below.
Fiona is very visible for a weak, dying Tropical Storm.
On a long leash to the South is the big Invest 99L
It has the bones of a circulation with no meat on them.
Meat = Convection.
Go figure, looks better than she did days ago...
NHC says Fiona is a goner...
She doesn't really look so fine..
...but in a Miami mood this morning so ...
....listening to this song as I write this:
What do you do with a problem like Invest 99L?
You keep watching..
Looking at water temperatures it's clear that it needs warmer water.
It had interference yesterday with a dry slot.
Water Vapor Imagery showed problems with an ULL edging down.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm