99L Invest Models, Discussion on Friday Afternoon. Remember it's Far Away. Don't Let the Models Make You Crazy. Fiona Weak a Fish Storm. Gaston May be Caribbean or Bust!

2 PM Update...

The orange circle expands further West into the Caribbean.

Yellow circle still in it's back pack.

Discussion is below.

Clear headed, well written, honest.

It's the "slow to occur" that makes this a problem.

If the hare was running this race it would end up a fish.

As the tortoise is crawling west along it could win a race of sorts.

It's been a while since we had a real hurricane to worry on ..

When I say "we" I mean along the United States coastline.

The Caribbean is in the way of whatever comes from the East.

Jim Williams from www.HurricaneCity.com is always conservative.

Not politically, but when forecasting tropical systems.

Let's make this simple.

The NHC says in 5 days 99L should be here:

IF it gets this far West in theory it would tangle with Haiti and DR.

Could wonder why it wouldn't replay Earl's track....

Not likely. At some point it should pull North.

Especially if the models are correct and make it stronger later.

So this afternoon's segment of Hurricane Model Wars..

GFS decides it might go cruising into the GOM.

With the tragedy in Louisiana any storm in the GOM is a problem.

In this image a bigger problem for the Eastern GOM.

Wide spread resolutions still with ensemble models.

Some models have different solutions hitting different cities.

AGAIN.... if you are at landfall on early models...

..you are probably safe ten days later.

The landfall point moves around.

Watch the overall pattern.

If you look closely there you will see what I mean.

And as 99L as Gaston is expected to cross the Islands.

People as far away as Texas are watching it.

Long range track depends so much on weather conditions upstream..

...and those conditions are fluid and evolving.

So you want to see the new installment of the GFS?

Goes under the High and slams into Hispaniola 

Joe Bastardi's favorite wind breaker for the USA

Doing a Georges and travels by land.

Havana Daydreaming...

Little too close for comfort for Mike in Tampa Bay area.

He's hanging on every new frame...

No peanut hummus for you!

Cold brew maybe..

Hurricane Landfall near Margaritaville Destin maybe

Mets try to figure out why the GFS and EURO don't agree.

I grew up on Shakespeare.

Cause they don't!

Hatfields and McCoys another example!

Get over it!

Happens.

Would be no model drama if they agreed....

But it's hard to let it go.

We want to be perfect.

We want to give the best advance warning we can...

In 1900 weather man Isaac Cline didn't believe til it was too late..

..ran up and down the beach telling people a hurricane was coming.

Too little, too late.

1926 Miami Weatherman Richard Gray begged people to listen.

He flew the hurricane flag on top of the building downtown.

The newspaper ran a story on a "West Indies Cyclone" coming.

After an early nothing storm and a false alarm days earlier..

..no one really paid attention.

There was no hype on TV.

There was no TV.

No Internet.

No www.spaghettimodels.com

No NHC..

..no NHC 5 Day Cone!

Seminole Indians warned settlers they were friends with...

People were basically clueless.

We try hard these days to give you all the earliest warning.

We try hard to figure out where the landfall could be.

How strong the hurricane could be at landfall.

The devil is in the details as they say.

Early warning is the key to saving lives.

So yeah, we want to get it right.

No one really believes long range models..

..especially ones that flip flop day by day.

Miami... 

No... Charleston.

No... Wilmington!!

Wait... how about Panama City?

Who gets it tomorrow??

Only time will tell..

Let the drama play out.

I'll update with more information.

The longer Gaston takes to form.

The stronger it can be later and further West.

That simple.

Then it depends on troughs and the High.

Also depends if it goes under Cuba through the Yucatan Passage ..

...or across Hispaniola or avoids land and goes up and over.

For Miami people watch the Hebert Box.

Water Vapor Loop

Keep it in perspective.

It's far away and so much can change.

Does have THAT LOOK though.

Been a while.

The big backward C look for Cape Verde Cane.

The large pocket that can fill up and become a major.

Early form in a developing storm says much.

Organized, centered vs "elongated wave"

So the bottom line is this:

Pay attention!

Go on about life this weekend.

Donate to the www.redcross.org

Louisiana Flood Victims need our help!

Love your life... 

... your friends, family.

This is a long range brain game.

Staring at any one model too much can give you a migraine.

Fiona after priming the ocean and setting up 99L to go the distance..

..remains our current named Tropical Storm.

And behind Invest 99L is another area highlighted by the NHC.

Models play with that one too.

Please read the earlier post that showed Gaston..

going the length of the East Coast as a Hurricane.

And check back to see how Invest 99L is doing now..

..and the next installment on As the Tropics Turn . . .

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter