Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

99L Recon Could Not Find a Closed Low. Watching & Waiting. NHC Lowers 2 Day to 50% Keeps 80% for 5 Day.

8 PM

VS 8 AM below

Obviously the red circle of possible development has changed.
Just a little a it bulges N in one part and further W in another part.

In truth the visual presentation of 99L has changed.
It doesn't look very good.
Good call by recon earlier today.
They could not find a strong West wind.
High winds yes but not a closed center.

Our invest can be seen by a orange dot tonight at 10 PM.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Close up.

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

You can see the bright dot in the middle of the large area.
It looks as if a circulation has tried to form to the NW of that.
And an area spinning below.
Messy. Really.
Sometimes before they come together..
...they look like they are falling apart.
It's not always a pretty process.


GFS shows a weak storm hugging the coast of Florida.
Some members of the ensemble stay off shore..
Some move in over land further to the North.
Some slide along the coast paralleling the coastline.
In truth there is a plausibility to this scenario...
...if it develops and there is a weakness in the ridge.

Forecasters in the Carolinas are hedging their bets now on the ridge.
Seems it is a shallow ridge with places where a storm might break through.
Time will tell.

The Euro sees a stronger storm moving under a stronger ridge West.
Across Florida somewhere...
South Florida?
Florida Straits?
West Palm Beach?
Pick a spot...
And takes it into the GOM.
However it aims it closer to FL/AL line tonight.
The track has pulled right away from the TX/LA coastline.

I have a problem with both scenarios. And I will preface my thoughts with a center must form and become vertically aligned for us to have a better handle on the end game. Currently it's a large, elongated tropical wave with some cyclonic spin and hard to find center. This happens often in waves that were unable to pull it together early on. 99L has tried twice to pull it together and every time it gets close it falls apart. Shear appears... or multiple centers vie to be the main center. When it pulls together we will have a better idea where it will go. Until then continue to go over your hurricane plans and revise them as needed and make sure you have what you have in case a named storm forms close in and South Florida goes under some sort of Tropical Storm Watch. Know as always waves sometimes stay waves and are unable to pull it together and save the plan for the next waves that work their way WNW to this spot again. A new wave is about to depart Africa as I type this.

The reason I don't like either scenario is they do not make a lot of sense in that normally a stronger system wants to go more to the North and break through a ridge if possible. And a weak system moves more the West under a strong ridge. It is as if the models have flipped the normal preference and find a stronger storm going West across Florida and a weaker storm crawling NNW along the coast of Florida.  

Neither scenario sits right with me and until this wave has a defined center I'm going to watch the wave on various satellite loops and let the wave work out it's inner problems. The next model run may or may not clear this picture up.

Let's look at one of my favorite loops.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Note 99L really doesn't have a "roll" going.
It does on the last frame seem to connect with remains of Fiona.
Note Gaston is rolling along behind 99L

Here's a look at 99L tonight.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

A green dot appears in the center of the red dot.
That could be the developing center.
Keep watching.

Chasing tornadoes often is boring.
You can drive and drive and nada.. nothing happens.
You can spend days driving around chasing possibilities.
Watching a tropical entity is enthralling.
You watch on satellite imagery.
You read information coming in from recon.
You watch and discuss it with friends online.
You compare notes.
And then when the storm forms..
You have time to warn people in it's path.
Knowledge is power.
Being able to give people the power to protect themselves is good.

So look over those Hurricane Plans.

I cannot count out an escape to the North.
I cannot promise the ridge will hold.
I cannot say for sure South Florida will have a named storm.

But I am pretty sure that the NHC can and will make that call.
But that call may come sometime in the next 24 hours.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. There is a dot directly North of PR.
IF that dot grows and convection continues.
We may be closer to a named storm.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)


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