50% in the 2 Day
70% in the 5 Day
The ante has been upped for the South Florida area.
Before it has a chance to get there ....
...there are Islands in the way.
It also has to form!
Currently Invest 99L is approaching the Islands.
The GFS and the EURO have come into a bit of agreement.
The GFS sees a weaker system staying lower.
Lower means there is more interaction with land.
Approaches South Florida as a weak closed system.
Barely a system... weather.
The Euro model shows a stronger system coming in stronger.
Euro = stronger.
Less interaction with Hispaniola.
More of a problem for South Florida on that last run.
By the time you read this there may have been another run.
The NHC is taking it serious enough to up it to Red status.
And to up the odds to 70% in the 5 day.
I'm going to write a bit here rather than post images of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane hovering over South Beach or West Palm Beach. Being honest with you all it has many variables and it has not yet organized into a named entity. Years ago we would track these Invests across the ocean more privately and study their chances for development. Now they have been raised to high advertising status by many media outlets complete with graphics and tag lines warning of impending doom. Many Invests do not make it and many do become Tropical Storms. Let the forecasters do their thing and evaluate data from recon and review the various models while studying the actual presentation of the tropical wave. Again, tonight it is merely a tropical wave with potential to be a Hurricane down the road.
As I said earlier today you should always be on top of your hurricane preparation plans if you live in the tropics. Miami is a great place to live but do it like a native which means stocking up on non perishable foods while they are on sale at Publix. Keep water stocked just in case. Make sure your medication is filled and not running low. The list goes on and on. It's not just about enjoying our beautiful sunsets and balmy breezes in the winter. Search #hurricanestrong on Twitter.
If you see this symbol at Publix it's usually important.
What are the chances South Florida will get a Hurricane?
This is a chart put together by HurricaneTracker App.
They are not the NHC.
They are good.
I'm using South Florida as a starting point here.
Many possibilities out there.
Currently Invest 99L is down approaching the Islands
This is an image from the link below.
Note there is no hurricane. Just a tropical wave. Weather.
A good link to use.
You can point to a spot it give you exact details.
What do the models show?
Wunderground shows it going low through the Straits.
Please concentrate on short term discussion.
Do not peak at the last page in the novel.
The novel is written...
...the final track of Hermine is not set.
It's not even Hermine tonight.
Last good visible image showed a stronger system.
That may be the center.
We will see what the morning visible looks like.
Worth knowing there are drones sending back info from the Invest now.
Isn't it wonderful how the NHC stays on top of every trick in the book?
Recon goes in tomorrow again.
One thing I do want to say is important.
Before counting on your landfalls...
...before boarding up your house and panic sets in.
It may tangle with Hispaniola if the center is to the South.
If it follows the Euro it most likely won't.
Invest 99L has a problem in that it is "tilted.
There is an axis of sorts.
Runs from one area to another.
Levi Cowan explains this in his video tonight.
There is a smaller center down to the South.
The larger one we have been tracking is to the North.
Does GFS feel the Southern center ..
..and the Euro feel the Northern center?
Time will tell.
They are not yet closed off centers.
From NW to SE very visible above.
In 2000 Debby was a weak, tilted system.
Predictions for it to become a huge hurricane were made.
So much so that the Florida Keys were put on alert to evacuate.
Hype, panic and Miami was in Hurricane Mode.
Turned out that Debby was tilted.
Not vertically aligned.
Hit Hispaniola and basically tipped over and died.
That is a common problem with weak, poorly formed storms have...
All the graphics and discussion were just that.
And then being honest sometimes a storm pulls it together.
I don't have to show you images of Katrina, Andrew and Betsy.
Some very memorable storms pull it together and go the distance.
I'll update in the morning after the first morning visible.
For tonight this is the bottom line.
Thanks for all the friendly comments and interaction.
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps Truth is only time will tell.
And when the NHC finds a center they will make a cone.