A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, August 28, 2016
99L Groundhog Day. 91L Fiona Remnants Lets Get Real. HURRICANE Gaston. Live Broadcasts From Mike Rock :)
Last night Mike from Spaghetti Models did a Live Broadcast.
Become a friend, check for updates often.
He doesn't post when he goes lives so stay alert!
Some great discussion between friends.
Last night's live broadcast was the best.
Awesome kick ass discussion on the tropics.
Showing sat imagery, models and talking to viewers.
People on his Facebook site were asking questions.
He was looping, scrolling, talking in real time.
Incredible and FUN.
He said 99L is beginning to remind him of Groundhog Day.
You know the movie.
You wake up every day and it's the same.
Mike Seidel said on TWC basically the same thing.
Wakes up, has to check, goes back to sleep, wakes up.
Hooked on 99L but nothing ever changes.
It could change in a few days in the Gulf of Mexico.
Or not. Stayed tuned.
Invest 99L the Reality TV Show of Summer 2016.
In truth Mike said something last night that is important.
He stressed he likes to share the information.
That could be said about me as well.
Discuss it and give as much information as he can..
We never want to scare anyone or issue forecasts.
NHC does that and they do it well.
NOTE they did NOT upgrade 99L to superstar status..
..the media did that.
They are investigating it for intensification.
I think we are more like "Weather Commentary"
We share info and make comments.
Reminding people to check with NHC or NWS.
And we enjoy having some fun with the weather.
Especially when it's just an Invest.
When it's a HURRICANE we get very serious.
That said this morning's blog is a Thank you to Mike.
To everyone out there sharing thoughts, models, loops and jokes.
And going to show morning visible loops and wind thumbprints.
My mother told me once that Luke on General Hospital reminded her of Mister Rogers. Every time he walked on a set he took of his shirt and changed it. She was observant like that.. Doesn't Mister Rogers look like an old fashioned Weather Man who just got home from work? But, yes it IS another day in the neighborhood in the world of weather. Tropical Invests in the Atlantic close in, a Hurricane Gaston further out to sea going further out to sea. Pacific busy, my gosh there are named storms EVERY WHERE but close to the US of A. Look at those named storms below and how do they get a great name like LIONROCK?
So let's break them down one by one!
In the order posted on NRL site
Anyone remember Bobby Darin?
Unless you were my mother's age or a music historian.. maybe not.
He was not Elvis or Billy Joel but a star in his day.
Much like 99L ..
"Best Invest EVER"
99L be sailing through the Florida Straits.
Old Bahama Passage...
Bahamas then along North coast of Cuba.
South of the Florida Keys.
Invest 99L on morning visible loop:
Expect heavier than normal rain over Cuba.
Florida Keys as well may get some added showers.
No watches or warnings of any kind for Florida Keys.
As always check with NWS Key West
To be fair that close to land you have to stay alert.
Sort of alert....
Someone asked me how you pronounce Hermine.
You will know if it ever forms you will hear it everywhere.
So keep watching.
Okay there is a twist there.
Models are great.
But at some point when they aren't performing well..
...there's a reason. Watch the tropical wave.
Watch tropical wave + knowing CLIMO = West bound.
As I said days ago...
...if weak it will go West over Cuba and Florida Straits.
When it affected Hispaniola it was obvious was not going..
"up and over the islands towards Florida"
This is not rocket science.
It's called Tropical Meteorology.
It's not that weather men and women on TV are not honest. They are very honest and they have to answer to many people. They are responsible for the people in their forecast area and sometimes far away who watch them on Twitter and other social media. Weathermen professional or amateur have all become social meteorologists. Some are way better than others. In a world where usually reliable models show a landfall of a huge hurricane or even a developing hurricane headed to Miami or Palm Beach or the Florida Keys with a second landfall in the GOM you can't just take it with a grain of salt. Our models are perceived to be almost perfect and yet this past week they could not even win the Bronze.
In truth the GFS model that everyone likes to make fun of was correct with Invest 99L forecast to be Hermine as soon as conditions improved a little down the road... pretty much nailed 99L after a few early killer hurricane scenarios. What did the GFS see that the EURO didn't see? Not sure but the GFS seemed more plausible and less prone as EURO looked like the CMC the last few weeks. Hurricanes everywhere. And in truth making a lot of weather men and women feel like they are losing their mind. Do you just ignore it and say "let's call the whole thing off?" or do you worry people will ignore it and in two days when it develops into a strong Tropical Storm no one takes it seriously?
Current conditions in Key West.
Wondering if TWC went down to do some segments for the future..
Spoiler Alert 91L is remnants of Fiona.
No I'm not losing my mind.
NWS out of Wilmington NC
NWS does a really good job watching their part of the world.
"remnant moisture from Fiona"
Invest 91L on morning visible loop:
Note Fiona remnant moisture looks better than 99L
But it has been ignored and renamed.
NHC never liked Fiona.
NHC liked 99L
Just being honest.
Was all about the models....
Surprisingly it has a way bigger thumbprint than 99L
It may approach the Outer Banks.
Develop a little...
Hook out as many have done before.
Small chance things could change.
But another day in the neighborhood for OBX
Can also affect Virginia coast as well.
I'll update if anything changes.
I may update live depending on what happens.
Not live broadcasts but pics from the beach.
Time will tell.
Morning Visible Loop of a Hurricane!
Note we have a real live Hurricane in the Atlantic...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm