Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

TD 9 Meandering ..Consolidating. Watches, Warnings UP.

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From far away Tampa Bay is getting slammed this morning.
Banding forming along the SW coast of Florida.
Pumping, evacuating energy well.
Can it maintain this development?
Funky green this morning on Funktop.
That's what it's called.
I didn't make it up!

TD 9 has slowly meandered into the Gulf of Mexico.
NHC used the word "meandering" so quoting them.
Temporarily steering currents pretty much collapsed.
That is forecast to change.
Pay attention to the NHC watches and warnings.
But remember TD 9 has not been a team player.
Moves slower and usually to the left of forecast.
At some point............. will get picked up by a front.

Below is TD 9 up close.

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Our storm of the hour. 
TD 9
Waiting on upgrade to Tropical Storm.
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are already posted.

Personally believe it will come in left of the cone.
Weather will be everywhere especially on the right side.
High tides on the right of landfall.
Worried up the coast on inland flooding.
More on that later today

I show this to keep in perspective the rest of the tropics.
Hurricane Gaston with a large eye.
They say you could fit the state of Connecticut inside it's eye.

That's an eye of a hurricane!

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Sticking here with the same loop.
That's bizarrely beautiful.
Compelling. Mesmerizing.

Okay got more to say today so will stare later.

A little frustrating to watch the painfully slow evolution of TD9 as it's hard to see continuity at times in upgrades. Joe Bastardi writes long on this, you can Google it. He's right in ways though he likes to rant on it and I won't. It's enough to say Colin was named and yet Colin looked worse than this system. Why? They said it met parameters. As I was not in the room when they made the decision .. can't argue that. But models were in love with Colin and last few years we have become very model driven. Example being the hoopla over Invest 92 as it rolled off the coast of Africa as models oohed and aahed about it getting a 50% orange circle before it hit the water. A mediocre wave I thought, yet there were dire warning of East Coast landfalls possible while over the Congo. Yesterday they quietly pulled the plug on it..for now. Yeah... okay... and they complain the local weather stations hype the storm? 

Compare and contrast to Tropical Depression 7

Colin with a misplaced center often.
Misplaced convection.
Models loved it.
Never lived up to models.

Hit the same general area so interesting compare and contrast.
It is typical for patterns to exist and have similar tracks in same year.

So it's a TD and it should be upgraded in an hour or less.
If not at 8 the package should be out at 11 AM.

Either way there are watches and warnings up.
They need to be taken seriously.
At some point steering currents will change.
It will move faster than a meander.

I'll be back later with an update.
I'll most likely be updating throughout the day.
Thanks for your patience yesterday.
I took the day off to play.
Sometimes you got to.
This slow motion 10 days worth of tracking...
"we are expecting conditions to improve" 
...has seemed like a month.

Went out with my husband to some event.
Dressed up, drank, laughed.
Had a BIG margarita!
Ignored the storm.
(except for looping on my phone ...)

Fun to have fun sometimes.
I had a really good night.
Expect to be busy next few online.
So thanks for your patience yesterday.. 

Cantore is having a really good morning.
By the beautiful Gulf of Mexico.
Going to compare and contrast different days.
So you can see how the water changes before a storm.

Again this storm is forecast to ride up the coast.
From one Southern city to off shore NE.

Jacksonsville, Savannah
Charleston, Wilmington

Check for your city in the link below.
Know those are minimal percentages.
When they hit 50% or more pay attention.

And this is forecast to possibly be a Hurricane.
Hard to believe but wouldn't bet against it.
It's come a long, long way to get here.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter where I live... lol

Ps Wondering how many Margaritavilles it can affect?

Fun place, one of my favorites!


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