Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

UPDATED!! Watches May Be Posted Later Today For Florida. Cantore A Coffee Nut. Someone Get That Man Some M&Ms & NOTE TO NHC PLEASE UPGRADE A TD

Afternoon Update.

We are moving towards a Tropical Storm Watch.
Forecast for TD 9 is that it IS going to be a TS ...

This is why they are going to post watches.

The drone from the NHC did find tropical storm force winds.
Hasn't been upgraded they are evaluating their data.
Watching it on satellite imagery.

Tampa Bay Bucs changed their Thursday Game.

You don't do that unless you have good info.

And most of Florida along with Tampa Bay are watching.

Good news is that models are coming into agreement.

A kink in this set up might be a stall.
Or a loop.
Watch how strong the steering currents are down the road.

Also I'm worrying on tornadoes in it's path.

Storms like this at this angle to bring tornadoes often.

Josephine in 1996 brought a problem inland with Twisters.
Ocala, Gainesville and other inland cities could get TS weather.
Rain remains the big problem.
Again it's left sided so much of the coastline should be under the gun.
Under the gun for wicked weather.
Approaching Hurricane force maybe...
...if models nailed it.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

We're not there yet Virginia and Carolina.
Close but no cigar as of 2 PM.

Will see.
I'll update later.
Keep reading..
Good discussion below:

My take on the models.

Front center stage Hurricane Gaston.
You see that one right?

Far to the left is an area of tropical weather near Texas.
Some how that got lost in the TD9 shuffle.
Convection of TD 9 down near the Yucatan.
It's center is the red dot further to the North.
Close to Carolina is a cluster of convection known as TD 8
And off of Africa is a huge, big new wave.

Those are our Atlantic suspects in the tropics.

In motion

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Front heading down to pick up Gaston.
That's the forecast.
The spin over Georgia is an ULL
ULL = Upper Level Low
It's forecast to draw TD 9 up to the NE
Lows follow lows.
Basic rule of meteorology.
Gaston may do a brief tour of the Azores.

Now let's look briefly at the Pacific

sat_wv_west_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Those are two cyclonic storms.
Hurricanes headed West 
Hawaii is in their way.
Hawaii is in the US of A so...
..USA is getting tropical trouble.

Continental US getting NADA right now.
Safe for now for Labor Day Weekend

Great wind map.
Use it.. play with it.
It was done by an art student who had to make a map.
She worked with meteorology, computer friends.
My son worked on it.
Not supposed to say that but ...oh well.
It's awesome in that after they made that.
Then every one made them but bigger.

Again don't need no hurricane hunters to find the hurricane.

TD 9 remains ELONGATED
Weather will be on the East of this system.
So Tampa, Naples...
Every city along the West Coast of FL will get weather.
No matter where it makes landfall as a ???

Carolina Depression (my girl) is closed tighter.
There is some sense of the wave off of Africa.

Stay tuned.

This is where we are at...
..waiting on upgrade.

If you are a Tropical Depression 9 Junkie

All of us are in ways weather junkies whether we have a degree, multiple letters after our names or mentions in the Wall Street Journal and Washington Post like me. Whether we live on Hurricane City or eat a steady diet of Spaghetti Models we are all weather junkies. I woke up briefly at 5 AM looked down at my phone like someone who knows they shouldn't have that last beer.. my stomach got tight, I debated... I put it down in hopes that by ignoring it I'd wake up to another named storm. Abrams called Cantore a "wishcaster"as he knows the planes are still out there it could get upgraded (8 not 9) and that's one of our oldest jokes. Yes, I know Cantore he thinks.. when he talks he says things I'm just about to write and it's annoying as I'm afraid if I write it people will think I am typing what he says word for word. I'm not. I have the same tape playing i my head. And yes a new Invest is a Christmas in July often or a new flavor of M & Ms (what's with that? what's next biscuit and gravy M&Ms ??) 

People are obsessed on this...

It's not just Mike and Jim and Jim and Mike ..
...arguing over TD 8 or TD 9 deserving the name.
(biggest name for weather guys ...don't know why)
Somewhere two guys are arguing over iPhone or Android.
And my best friend Sharon is waiting on Facebook for me.
To argue about the Upper Level Low thing...

So stay tuned.
I'll update when there is something to say....
(that's a horse of another color)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps .. Cantor e is the Candy Man ;)
Someone at TWC get him some M&M Coffee


I'll be back soon... as soon as something changes.
Note I do update thoughts in real time on Twitter.


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