Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 01, 2016

UPDATED!! EYE?? Hermine Intensifying. Forecast by NHC to be Hurricane. Stays TS Up the Coast... Monitor It Carefully. Update As NHC Updates or Info Comes In..

Sure looks like an eye.
Spins like an eye too

Check it out on spaghetti models

But can't upgrade til 5 PM?

So this is what NHC just said:

2 PM 70 MPH
Barometer dropping some

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Watch Hermine wind up and take shape.

TWC saying an eye wall is developing.
NHC Update:

Location: 27.8°N 85.6°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Pushing towards landfall in Florida 
Current problem.

Then down the road.........

 That's long range concerns above.

Hermine wanting to do the beaches on Labor Day...

11 AM Track for Hermine remains the same.

Presentation did not remain the same.
Getting more organized finally.


Not a blob:

Convection wrapping around the center.
Outflow look
Less blobby...

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See the center has convection wrapping.
Convection wrapping around to N.
Note for NW Florida this needs to be taken seriously.
West Florida gets wet.....
...and possibly tornadoes.

Tail forming.

That will suck up more tropical moisture.
Give it fuel.

I say that as the threat of INLAND FLOODING up the way

Cities in the path trying to warn people.
Get the message out.

Every NWS along the track of Hermine doing the same.
If you live in the path of Hermine.
Check the NWS site for your location.

Discussion shows the problem down the road.
At some point Hermine may stall or slow down.
Where and when is the question.

Love the way the NHC does now what I did for years.
Salient points.
Key points.
Good idea...

Hurricane forecast in discussion.

Great link on NHC site

Zoom in....tells the tale.

Please use that link.
Great link... 


Rain forecast: 

Okay going long here with my own discussion. Important to remember the impacts differ according to different regions. The coast of NW Florida has beaches that are very prone to flooding from storm surge. Little bays and inlets fill up with no where for the water to go. Cities along the West Coast such as St. Pete, Tampa, FMB, etc will have coastal flooding, some inland flooding and the threat of tornadoes. Inland tornadoes and depending on the strength of intensifying Hermine may have stronger winds than you originally thought. Some storms wrap up and intensify on landfall so beware and don't count it out as it seemed like a mess back when it was 99L it's knocking on Hurricane Door now. Respect it.

Further up the coast by JAX you have flooding problems on the beaches and barrier islands with water pushing out not in sort of reverse of storm surge normally. For Savannah this is how Savannah usually gets tropical storms from the SW. BIG HUGE TREES that may have damage, a big oak branch coming down can take out cars, buildings and people. This goes all along the South even in places like Augusta not really in it as much... Tallahassee ... Raleigh.. Wilmington. Do NOT park under a big oak tree!! Obviously up the coast too....

Surf effects along the beaches, some erosion and surfers can check here as well as people concerned on .. well beaches

Depending on the track in REAL TIME the cone may stay the same or be pulled West or East so stay tuned every 6 hours. I will update as NHC updates. Regardless of if you are at the edge of the cone or the center you may very well be in it. And at some point the storm is forecast to slow. IF tracks further to the West... and slows it can cause immense inland flooding in the Carolinas. IF it slows out further to the East more beach erosion. Don't forget those ships at sea.

As it moves up the coast the NHC has it currently staying strong.. if not a normal Tropical Storm so South facing beaches on Long Island could have problems. What if it stalls off Del Marva? Or races past. So many intangibles. You are in the cone so you know to PAY ATTENTION. Cone is never set in stone but sometimes changes as the storm does.

Hermine is really wrapping up and if this trend continues it could be a Hurricane. Leaving you with a loop and a song. Stay tuned and as always I update thoughts on Twitter in real time. 

If you have a boat on the coast.
Check with NWS.
Secure it if need be.

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See how Hermine's moisture is bulging N into the dry air.
Feeling the pull of the trof.

rb_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Convection wrapping around the center now.. finally.


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