Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, September 02, 2016

UPDATED!! 92L Back ...Hermine Does SE Debates ON Where to Stall on Trip NE .. 1 Possible Death from FL. Power Outages. Trees Down. Staying Inland So Far...


Position of Hermine today.


Approximate position of Hermine.....
Well according to NHC  ...
We can watch it in real time below.

Loop:

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

This is the battle field.
Storm moving NE
Dry Air pushing down trying to block it.

50 MPH Moving NE at 20 MPH


See how the NHC works.
They make the cone tighter and tighter.
And then... it gets wide again.
Watches go North to Brooklyn, NY
Up through parts of NE

There are some crazy models....
.... intangibles down the road.


That is why the cone is so wide.
There is much disagreement among the models.
Mediators had to be called in but they got nowhere.
Hermine never does what you think it will.
Didn't form for days when it was forecast.
Looked like it was splitting in two ...
...and then came together into a Hurricane.
We be tracking Hermine into October at this rate...
Seriously, crazy models out there.
You got to "feel" for the forecasters.
So many people under the gun and models messy.
Such a big responsibility...
..and they got a trickster Tropical Storm.


Follow that green line... it come back!!

Garbage in .. garbage out.
Next model run maybe will have more agreement.
But I doubt it.

This happens often. 
A storm moves North.
Gets blocked from going further.
Rather than going out to sea..
..a ridge builds and locks it in a bit.
Then it goes out to sea...
Loops
Or.. 
Retrogrades back a bit towards land.
It's early September.
The cold front's aren't all that...

http://dabuh.com/2016/09/02/update-hermeen-extended-forecast/

You might want to check out Dabuh.Com for his update.
It's long range.... educational and fun.

Everyone wants to know about 92L 
He discusses it.

As for the long, drawn out Soap Opera of Hermine.
As the Tropical World Turns..
Bryan Norcross wrote an explanation on possibilities..
..of how this is like Sandy but NOT like Sandy.

And the NHC is going to stay with it til it's over.

https://www.facebook.com/TWCBryanNorcross/posts/1166971430007537

Going to tell you something.
It's awesome I go outside in the rain in Raleigh.
This rain.. this system.. came from Africa.
Really... amazing.
Hurricanes move energy around the planet.
From the equator to the poles.
Sometimes they take the long route.

They don't all take the easy track.


So stay tuned. Keep reading below.
I'll be back Saturday late in day.
We'll see where Hermine is by then.

Stay tuned.
Do not panic... 
..but stay informed.
Again

NWS + Your Zipcode = Knowledge
Knowledge is power.

Woke up this morning.
Stared at the clock.
Reached down and opened my Chromebook.
One of my many toys but opens fast.
Read update on Facebook from Mike.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

It's a new world and it's always been a new world
Always changing..
AOL MySpace Facebook
Twitter Snapschat
We all be evolving.

I think I'm LoisCane on Snapchat.
Have to start using that.
But we are as always working together..
...to share the information and get it out there.
Knowledge is power.

Til later...
www.spaghettimodels.com 
..use it!!

And thanks for all the great comments!
Love you all too!!

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* * *



Some great images of Hermine on Twitter.

Last night this was an awesome one.


Great part about Twitter is you get a variety of views.
Visually a cornucopia of satellite imagery.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Current loop shows Hermine pulling up moisture across Florida still.
My kids drove through it earlier and said was a regular Miami rain storm.
But important to stay alert.
Note that spin in the Atlantic. 
92L is back again.


So don't say I didn't warn ya...
Staying with Hermine for now though.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Hermine is trying to push North but...
...she's bucking a wall of high pressure.
How far Hermine gets is the big story today.
I'm not convinced it gets that far North before the big stall.


Ryan knows weather. He's good.
This is one image of what might happen.
Note it could stall further S or N.
But it will stall.

Current color WV image:


Losing energy inland.
And I want to say Hermine has always liked land.
Hugged Hispaniola, Cuba and now inland still.
Savannah did not get as much as they expected.
Yet in Georgia inland trees down.


That person is Tweeting from Albany, Georgia.


Florida Georgia Line took a strong hit.
If a boat lands on your street it's a big storm!

Hermine may lunge under the High for the water.
But where? But when? 
Flooding rains moving North.
I'm getting light rain in Raleigh.
And many in NC inland want rain.


Good visual signature on radar.


That rain shield is pushing North.
Embedded in the rain are stronger cells.

It's one of those laws of nature.. 
..a matter of perspective.

If a big tree falls on your car...
...Hermine made a HUGE impact.
If there was no damage on your street it was nothing.

So since this is such a localized drama over a large area.
I am begging you if you are near the cone to do this

Go to your favorite web browser.
Type in NWS + your zipcode

You get this:


Do not rely on what someone told you...
...don't panic over a headline on the paper on the streets of NY.
Don't rely on hype on the TV for LIVE AT 5.
Don't even rely on me or anyone online.

Take control.
Zipcode and NWS
You can do zipcode and weather.. 


It's THAT easy.

This cone is meant to educate and warn.
It scares people who went through Sandy.
But it is what it is..
Could end up far out at sea...
...or over New Jersey.
Honestly.
Narrow cone in short term.
WIDE cone in long term.


Good website:
http://dabuh.com/forecast/

That's a friend's link.
He does surf updates and weather.
Surfers are always looking ahead for good waves.
This current track affects a lot of beaches so good site to use.

Look at that first image of what would become Hermine!
He posted this again today on Twitter.


Fiona top left.. big wave is wave that became Hermine.

Hermine today and future waves.



Back on August 18th he gave a heads up on a new wave.
Wild video really. 
As he said "just one run" of the models.
But models were right on most of the track.
Ended up near the current cone.
Go figure.
So looking forward .. 
..look who is back!
Invest 92L


Hermine now with NRL map.


Invest 92 is the next wave to watch.


Stay tuned.

I'll be back with another update today.

See the high pushing down.
See Hermine moving along?

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

The NHC discussion at 11 said...
... they are uncertain on long term track

This is the problem:


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/021455.shtml?

Check back http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ often.

Stay informed. 
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Again check your local weather.
Where ever Hermine goes there is the threat of tornadoes.
And the threat of localized flooding.
This is how we roll...

NWS + your zipcode

Check back here for updates or on Twitter Live.


Best site and covers everything you can think of..
..no I didn't buy THAT dress ;)
Find your info here easily. 
Especially if you are a visual person ..






1 Comments:

At 11:24 AM, Blogger David Roberts said...

NWS+Zip Code works GR8, Bobbi!! What are your thoughts on 92L??

 

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