Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, September 04, 2016

Hermine Hype, 92L Barely Spoken On .. Labor Day & Importance of Teaching Meteorology in High School..


Discussion link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/041448.shtml?


Going out to sea eventually...
...how close will it get is the problem that remains?


Sunday Morning Graphics.
Hermine is still lingering off the East Coast.
The forecast looks better now for it to go out to sea.
That can change so check back often.
NWS + Your Zip Code = Weather currently.
Includes any watches or warnings.

Down in the Caribbean is a yellow circle.
Invest 92L would be the BIG story if not for HERMINE



Before I go long with some thoughts.
Know that on September 1st I posted these thoughts.


Then as now Hermine could end up in any part of their circle.

But the media is doing Hermine doing NYC NJ etc.
Although several on TWC have pointed that out also.
Bryan Norcross circled parts of the cone yesterday often.

Keep that in mind while looking at long term models for 92L

Model spread for 92L is wide.


Not well organized but there.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Behind it is ANOTHER WAVE...

The wave behind it is fighting the same dry air others have fought this year.


I'll update in depth if the NHC ups the odds.
For now the story remains Hermine.
And in most parts of the country the weather is beautiful.

That's my Cliff Notes for this morning.

Read on if you want my longer thoughts on the hyping of Hermine.
And the importance of Meteorology vs Algebra.
Add in History and Geography.
And I don't mean one chapter in Science in 11th Grade.

One of the first things you learn in Journalism school is that it's all about location. If there is a fire in a barn out on Route 54 and it destroys the barn it's a story. If there is a small fire downtown in an office building being evacuated next to the Court House it's a story. If the barn is burning down and the office building is being evacuated and possibly the Court House next it's a bigger story than a barn that is burning down. A Post Tropical Storm coming ashore in the Canadian Maritimes is not as big a story as a Post Tropical Storm spinning off shore near NY, NJ as it's one of the biggest media markets anywhere.

That is not to say there is not a danger inherent with HERMINE being off shore and whipping up the surf. The possibility of a loop back towards NYC would be a problem and this storm has been a problem since day one. There is a difference between watching it, being aware and it being hyped. If you live in a town that is prone to flooding ... it may flood at High Tide. The same area in North Myrtle Beach flooded the other day from Hermine as it did from the "Fire Hose" floods last year during Joaquin. The same goes for those cute shops on the boardwalk in Ocean City..they are on the boardwalk in Ocean City. Better to be safe than sorry and if needed change your holiday plans from camping by the Delaware River or going to the Beach than ignoring it and going outside of the range of your phone having good service for a weather update. You need to be able to monitor the storm and that is the bottom line. BBQ at home, invite friends over and put some music on rather than going out to the tip of Long Island hiking.

I've heard many in the media joke that if there was another Sandy the ratings would be crazy. Crazy being good for advertising revenue for the station. It's just the honest truth as the bottom line with On Air News is ADVERTISING REVENUE. That goes for TWC and anyone in the broadcast business. I don't ask for money nor do I charge money for my site. I don't even have banners running from Google Ads. I do get paid to write often but this here is my hurricane harbor where I talk about hurricanes, weather and life. Sometimes life is not hurricane related but often in my world it is weather related.

I just want to make that clear. So when someone gets upset I said there is a wave out by Africa that models are doing nasty things with it is only said as people ask me to talk about the distant waves. They don't want to wait until they see hype on TV nor do they want to read the official line. Again Bryan Norcross is respected because he did NOT go with the NHC forecast on Friday before Andrew that said that Andrew was catching a weak cold front up near the Carolinas. He did not say "batten down the hatches Miami is getting a monster storm!" he winced, he groaned, he cleared his throat and looked annoyed at the forecast. He knew there were other options and one of those options was a problem for his viewers. It was a Tropical Storm in the prime time of year and it needed to be watched and people in Miami were watching because he told them to ...that simple.


He did not hype it nor did he make big predictions that it would go out to sea, to Carolina or come straight at Miami. He shared his knowledge and gave his thoughts even if they didn't agree with the NHC discussion. He never dumbed down the weather to his viewers but shared it with them explaining what an Upper Level Low could do and how weak a cold front in August could be. Before he stayed on air all night he had viewers who trusted his honesty and his knowledge. The ones watching on that Friday before Andrew did not catch the cold front had a heads up to possibly go shopping "just in case" and get whatever might be needed in case a strong Tropical Storm came to Miami. Those who were watching other channels basically got a verbal replay of the NHC discussion that is now available online to everyone reading this. Back in the old days you had to rely on either calling the Weather Station and getting their recorded message that was the same broadcast as on the old fashioned much loved Weather Radio or you could rush to your TV at 6 PM to see Bryan do his longer segment on the weather and anything happening in the tropics.

We know so much more these days and can learn online all the things we should have been taught in school. To be honest meteorology should be taught in high school as it relates every day to people's lives however they are fed algebra and geometry that will rarely be used by the average person. Geography is good to know too... even if you aren't supplying arms for the US Army at 18 years old at some point you will need to know geography, trust me I know.


And yet wherever you live you need to understand weather.
Rivers rise...the Creek rises in the town you just moved into.

Bayous flood. 
Earthquakes happen.
Hurricanes happen.
Dust Storms.
Blizzards.

Weather happens and it affects you always.
Geometry while interesting rarely is needed.
And don't tell a kid who does online games...
...he needs Algebra to learn problem solving.

So yes I will show long range models and I will share information from some of the best meteorologists I know (and I know many of the biggest personally) about what kind of winter it "might" be and I always add in "might" or "maybe" but people who have have lived through the Winter of 1978 in Chicago like to know long term winter forecasts. People who work in commodities like to know the future weather trends. People who survived Hugo, Andrew, Fran, Katrina and the ever popular Charley like to know in advance if something "might" happen and when it doesn't they are happy. After being confused by hype and model discussion in a 2 minute segment on the news they want clarity even if they have to read someone who writes long. I am aware my readers can read and they can scroll. Gotta love computers and pretty sure some of them do Control F for "african wave" ;)

So as for the ongoing storm of coverage on TWC even I have gotten tired of watching the surf moving towards the shore. I warned my kids and told them NWS + Zipcode = Weather Now. The sun is out in Raleigh and rather than drive 2 hours plus to the beach I'm going to an Artisan Street Fair and then out to eat somewhere. I'm going to get my dress hemmed for the wedding in Miami and hope the odds will work out that we will have a wedding and no hurricane on September 18th. And for my friends here they know my son who was born while we were tracking Hugo and Gabrielle and who had his 3rd birthday party (big in Orthodox Jewish circles) in the only house that had a generator after Andrew when Miami Beach was official "closed" but we partied anyway. His birthday is September 1st, he was a Labor Day baby :) Honestly. So weather and hurricanes have always been a part of his life from day 1.


He and his bride kind of like stormy seas and the wind blowing.

Let's  just hope it doesn't blow too hard.

Labor Day and Hurricanes ... 
Happens often.
Labor Day Hurricane 1935


Luckily all we are dealing with is Hermine.


I had a friend during Hurricane Andrew who had prepared a big Bar Mitzvah for her son that weekend it was canceled when the hotel called her to tell her they were going to be closed becuase of a hurricane. When he was born there was a storm, she made the party a week after Andrew (being a caterer made it easier) and she announced when he is ready to get married she's not going to send out invitations just call everyone the night before just in case.  Life in Miami in August and September you just never know.

Truth is the big story here is a financial one. The loss of revenue from no Labor Day Weekend for many beach towns is huge. Concerts, programs... tennis events all impacted. I understand The WEATHER Channel needs WEATHER but it's a bit much even for me. Sorry, true. For those of you who love watching the surf, and I know many home bound with illnesses love to watch, enjoy it. Stay informed. If the trend continues Hermine will behave and if not we will update in real time. 

And it's September and until the hurricane season is over we will have waves rolling off of Africa and tropical storms forming at the base of old cold fronts dangling in the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast of Florida. And in January it will snow in Pittsburgh. It's life and life is all about the weather.

Besos BobbiStorm 
@bobbistorm on Twitter.. updating weather thoughts and otherwise all day in real time.

Ps... more concerned about him getting back from his bachelor weekend in New Orleans with two of his brothers and a bunch of friends. The bride did Key West with her bridesmaids a few weeks back. This is my life... and ... my daughter in NY is probably annoyed she did not go camping with the hubby and baby to the Delaware River or upstate NY but pretty sure and her friends will find a way to have fun today... maybe watch a good sunset while making a BBQ. 


Not like she didn't do that all summer...
...and another daughter did Coney Island last night.


So...what are you doing this Labor Day?

;)

I did the beach as Hermine was forming.
Frothy, windy, almost empty and beautiful.
Carolina Beach that Hermine visited :)











1 Comments:

At 11:16 AM, Blogger Cheryl Connell said...

Good reading as always Bobbie,I hope you have a wonderful labor day.
As for us my husband will be working, he's a flight instructor for American flyers at pompano air center, on Friday aug 26,6pm as I was walking to my car in a publix parking lot here in coconut Creek a guy attempted to strong arm rob me, they didn't get anything but my trust..So I'll be working on that for awhile.
So I will stay close to home grill a couple burgers and be done.
Thank you again, for all you do

 

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