At 8PM 2 Yellow Circles with 10% chances exist.
Low as it goes I know.
Red Circle with 90% Chance
(expect an upgrade there soon)
Understand the NHC puts out formation circles
Really areas of possible formation zones.
Zones of influence tropically speaking.
WHERE within those zones they develop is important.
People don't understand this and confuse it with a cone.
If it forms far to the North the track will be different...
...than if it forms far to the South.
Generally speaking tropical weather exists within those cones.
Not with a name but it the general direction the wave will move.
The tropical wave possesses weather over a wide area.
Tropical Weather sometimes with high winds..
..sometimes those winds can have tropical storm force speeds.
Usually the wave axis travels WNW...
but it is oriented North to South ...
Mucho messy weather everywhere moving WNW or West!!
A closed off tropical wave becomes a TD.
A TD has a CENTER.
A Tropical Wave has tropical weather.
So we watch them even without a designated name.
Okay Zones VS Cones 101 Over ;)
Looking below we see
Nothing 92L, Nothing 93L and SOMETHING BIG 94L
In motion we can really see what 94L is all about
Big huge area but looks messy still.
Below we watch the moisture train...
Showing y'all that the roll is on regarding 94L
However 94L is a long ways away.
And models ordering fish fry.
So let's start close in.
One set of models up on Spaghetti Models
(yes spaghetti is hard to spell Mike you are right)
You see what we have with 92L is low potential ...
...but potential for trouble.
A decent named system IF it forms.
So it's important to watch it...
... either they take it away or up it's % a bit.
In the Gulf of Mexico any tropical system is a problem.
Why? Because the weather makes landfall somewhere.
Really the one to watch currently.
There's one of the A Team Models that shows it coming to Florida.
Obviously it's not worried on Zika...
Understand currently it only has 10% chances.
But location makes it more important.
And chance of development closer in down the road..
...ups it to importance even if it's just weather.
As we have had a few close in storms forming...
...we be watching it carefully.
Currently it's playing around with an Upper Level Low.
Upper Level Lows are the way to go this year it seems.
Remember months ago I said there was an ULL in Florida Straits?
And I said down the road we'd have tropical systems there...
...where the Upper Level Low was going?
And that happened indeed.
Yet the Upper Level Lows don't want to go away this year.
Which is good because basically ....
.....they be keeping the hurricanes away.
While they sometimes enhance convection..
..they also put the kabosh on development.
Go Upper Level Lows!
All those dark swirly things are Upper Level Lows.
When they dip down and tickle a wave..
..the wave flares up.
When they get too close the wave gets zapped.
It's an interesting meteorological ballet of sorts.
Hey I'm bored I'll take any action I can get...
As for 94L out there somewhere...
...large and tagged with 90% red chances.
So far 94L is forecast to be the next Gaston.
Out to sea, maybe beautiful to watch.
Not bothering anyone but ships at sea.
Do you ever wonder if someone on the weekend...
...thinks on playing Tic Tac Toe with that map?
Thinking who is really looking at me?
In the world of Apps...
But we do love it.
There's a wild debate going on in quiet circles...
...about comments Bryan Norcross made about naming hurricanes.
You know Post Tropical Hurricane, Post Tropical Storm
Doesn't it sound like Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome?
Some people don't like when you make suggestions...
...or think out loud.
But Bryan Norcross was never one to hold his tongue.
If he thought it was useful to speak up.
Well...he spoke up.
I suggest you read it and maybe you can give your thoughts.
Note the part the government agencies better get is this:
It's true today people do not get their news on TV.
They do not get their news from the Internet.
They check their smart phone fast.
They look at an App or read a title in social media.
Sorry to break that to all of you in Atlanta.
Hey I watch TWC....
I am not a Millenial.
But I do think like one as I have several.
They go on social media sites and read fast.
Post Tropical Storm Hermine aka Subtropical, Extratropical..
Doesn't play well on social media.
A little long for a MEME.
And if our job is to EDUCATE and WARN the public.
We need to rethink how we use names or titles.
Weather is weather.
Hurricane Force Wind is Hurricane Force Wind.
Storm surge from a post tropical storm is storm surge...
...not a regular high tide.
Few read the discussion explaining why tropical storm force winds..
...exist within an elongated area merging with a cold front..
How and why it might become extratropical.
Get the message out and get it out right.
That is the bottom line.
That said NHC does a great job.
The problem in real time is how they get the word out.
We live in a fast changing world.
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
I'll update tomorrow as events unfold.
... Hurricane History Lesson for the Day
Hurricane Donna and video from when...
...all the news anchors looked like Clark Kent ;)