UPDATED! HURRICANE Gert. 91L Making Many Nervous Even Tho It's So Far Away... Gert is Dancing With the Fish and Harvey is on the Horizon...As Well As Irma... Hmnnn Do You Have a Plan? Supplies? Y Not? And Fix Those Pumps in Nola and Miami

Hurricane Gert.

Done Deal. 

99L AKA TD8 Makes the Grade Finally.

2nd Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

The Hurricane That Never Saw Recon... 

..moving on. 

Cone the same.

I'll update in the AM.

You can see what they are discussing regarding the eye.

It's there but it's not still got some issues.

Model forecasts tonight show it getting stronger.

Much stronger.

And they are being conservative.

Some models show higher.

But conservative can be good.

Stay tuned..

There are 3 waves off of Africa.

The one that is rolling off now concerns me.

Besos BobbiStorm

1 - 2 - 3

Will be discussing them tomorrow.

***

Previous posts show how this progressed into Hurricane.

And why I am worried on the newest wave.

5 PM.

Compare and contrast with the 11 AM.

Intensity 70 MPH.

That's the story for Gert.

Other than some models show it going Cat 2.

For now I'd like to see the NHC bump it up to Cat 1.

Hurricane Gert... go figure.

As for figures, there is a new girl on the block.

Well it's a girl IF 91L is Harvey.

Either way a new yellow circle is on the map.

A wave that is just leaving Africa.

What worries me on this wave is...

...it's already caused problems over Sierra Leone.

Hard to keep all the waves apart as they merge together.

But this new wave came off after dumping torrential rains.

A horrible, horrendous ...terrible, tragedy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/14/world/africa/sierra-leone-floods-freetown.html

A particularly problematic concern.

For the Miami people this is the day Andrew left Africa.

We are getting knee deep into the heart of the hurricane season..

With this sort of wave train.

It only takes one or two to make landfall...

... so prepare now while you can.

If you don't use the hurricane supplies..

Donate them to a food bank.

And give thanks you didn't need them.

If you need them you will be thankful you have them.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Very very busy times in the Atlantic.

Here's a song a busy song...

Note the eye forming.

Needs to be upgraded.... 

Dvorak Image below shows this intensification.

Brightest whites in the center.

Could an eye form in Gert?

Loop below shows how Gert tightened up.

Pulled together.

Also shows Invest 91L and the wave behind it.

Waiting on the 2 PM update from NHC on 91L
8AM shown below.

Gert off the SE Coast.

91L with 60% chances of development in the 5 day.

NHC Discussion below:

And the Models.

Everyone wants to see the models.

So straight from Spaghetti Models...

...here's the pasta.

You can see Gert spinning off the SE coast.

You can also see some SAL and our waves.

Moving West in tandem as always.

Better now than before.

Wave train juicing up the atmosphere.

Upping the odds the new waves survive!

There are three things to know this morning.

1. Gert is forecast to stay out at sea.

2. Gert is forecast to be a hurricane.

3. Harvey could form from Invest 91L in several days.

This could change later today.

Everything is always subject to change.

Weather is fluid.

Gert forecast above to be a Hurricane.

Probably...

Those are the basics. 

There is some good discussion online that is based on models and climo and not meant to scare people as much as to give information. Some people believe knowledge is power and it empowers them to feel less nervous about possible tropical trouble. Here's a few voices I listen to and find worth following.

Could Irma be waiting in the wings after Harvey forms?

Again I remind you there are multiple waves as shown below.

DaBuh shows this below with the models on Twitter.

And to show you how fast models change.

This is a great view of what the models showed last night.

So if you live anywhere from Houston to Tampa...

..and you hear about the Euro today...

Remember early models dance around a lot.

Gert who is a dancing with the fish...

..was forecast to hit Miami and Boston early on.

Last night's models are shown below.

So using last night's model runs above... 

 I want to show you how fast things can change.

I do this often ...show the compare and contrast.

Where did it go below? GFS....

After being very bullish with 91L the new improved (?) GFS loses it before the Islands with no real sense of what happened to it. Perhaps it was not vertically aligned and some shear appeared out of nowhere and the GFS sniffed it out and 91L unravels fast. Perhaps next model run looks like the run above that shows it back up in the Bahamas. It's hard to think it forms and falls apart but maybe the GFS had a good tip on an Upper Level Low forming there and ripping it to shreds?

The Euro is a bit unbelievable yet no one in this field wants to discount the Euro. Previously the Euro wasn't impressed, this morning it takes it really far West into the Islands staying together across Hispaniola, Cuba and then moving up into the GOM looking like a wanna be major hurricane that's going to threaten some city in it's path. People in New Orleans should take that model run with some Absinthe and not check that model again for a day or two. And the city of Nola better get it's act together regarding the pumps as it's going to be a long season and this is just the beginning. There are more where this one came from out there across Africa. Fix the pumps, get it done! No excuses.....

Here is 91L aka Harvey maybe...

Coming off of Hispaniola over Cuba.

(It seems to like hitting land)

Then moving up into the GOM

Note the EURO also develops the wave behind it.

Takes on Hispaniola ...

Lunges West towards Cuba...

Note new storm behind it..

Continues across Cuba... Georges like...

(Georges liked hitting land too..)

Big storm behind it now.

Then BAMN scaring everyone along the GOM...

Other storm becomes a fish storm ?

Note heavy blue where SAL used to be.

I'm not saying this is impossible.

But it is implausible.

Land interaction does inhibit intensification usually.

Watch it as a possible pattern vs a finished product.

Euro is a work in progress but it's on to something.

Reminds me of a forecast made by Jim Williams.

For possible storm tracks this year.

Note his stays more to South side of Cuba.

Euro takes it over backbone of Cuba.

Speaking of SAL.

Using this image to show you the waves not SAL.

This satellite image is like using Xray vision.

It shows both waves well.

There are two areas of vorticity out there.

Sort of as the EURO implies.

Or is the EURO sniffing the bigger wave over Africa.

Hard to be 100% sure what the models are showing.

Spoiler Alert:

Models are like Millenials doing Snap.

Oh snap...they can type onto the image.

Models just spit out images.

They keep their thoughts to themselves.

We try to interpret them into a cohesive forecast.

Let's look close up at 91L

Are we 100% sure which wave is The Big One?

I don't think so.

Not yet.

Soon.

Back to Gert.

Ain't she sweet.

Finally looking good.

She can't get NHC to give it more than 45 MPH winds?

In motion.

I'd give it at least 50 MPH.

It's trying.

Wider view showing us the whole basin.

Gert... 91L and possibly 92L.

What will the NHC do?

Using Xray vision ;)

You can see this below.

Much to discuss this morning and it's not much to do about nothing. It's definitely something, but in it's vagueness there are all these intangibles and the intangibles keep rearranging. Long range models keep spitting out various long term solutions for waves off the African coast and people far away in the USA go crazy imaging their worst case scenario. In New Orleans they see Katrina coming, in Miami they see Andrew coming and in Cuba they are praying Hispaniola knocks it down before it lands on their doorstep. Everyone has a nightmare and just one run of a long term model on a strong set of tropical waves will bring out the worst fears of many who have been through a hurricane before and lived to remember it too well. For those who are new to Miami or Houston or Tampa they are trying to buy school supplies, get tickets to their favorite sporting event and going to the movies as if nothing was out there by Africa. Isn't innocence bliss ... or not.

This is the way of the world in the tropics. Once you have been burned you remember, you wonder, you worry and you prepare. It only takes one land falling strong hurricane that knocked your power out for ten days to have the hurricane season calendar engraved into your mind. Many pack up and leave town for places where cyclones from the West Indies don't threaten the stability of their lives. In 1926 the city of Miami was barely three decades old and what was previously a small rock ridge at the edge of the Everglades was populated by mostly new comers seeking their fortune and their place in the sun. After the 1926 Hurricane turned their dreams to nightmares people had two choices. Pick up the pieces, rebuild and start over or move on and get the hell out of Dade County and many did. The trains that brought in the coffins for the dead, gave free rides out of town to people who wished to head back up north fast. FPL offered jobs to anyone who needed by telling people they could hop on the trucks and get a job rebuilding the electric grid that obviously went down as the hurricane moved across the Magic City.

What would you do?

Just remember that hurricanes are one of the only "natural disasters" you can prepare for and you can be warned are coming with an extreme degree of accuracy. In LA they can tell you an earthquake is imminent.... meaning anytime over the next few years or so. In Oklahoma you can be warned that storm chasers are in town and there's a high chance of tornado activity yet even the chasers aren't sure where they will spin up other than a wide grid on a map sometimes across two or three states. Trust me as they go Hurricanes can be prepared for and if you have the money you can even leave town after having your hurricane shutters put up and saying a few prayers you have something to come home to.... If you are low on money did you know other than shutters and wood you can get almost everything you need at your local Dollar Store? Rich or poor you can prepare.

So... as annoying as they can be sometimes the people at the NHC do an incredible job giving us the best possible forecast package they can put out. Again it's a forecast not a summary of what happened looking back in time; they are trying to predict what will happen. And again, weather is fluid and things change which is why models change so often and sometimes the storms do not follow the models and then the models put that data in to the next model run and it goes on and on ....

So with regard to Invest 91L just keep watching it and consider each model run "interesting" and for "entertainment purposes only" however as they firm up and your area is under the gun order on Amazon Prime or go to the local Dollar Store and stock up on Hurricane Supplies cause 2017 is a busy season and the Cabo Verde Waves are rocking it this year. And they all seem to want to go west....  Make an executable plan and do it now. And as for Nola and Miami...get those pumps fixed please.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I will update throughout the day as things change noticeably.