Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 09, 2017

UPDATED ... HURRICANE FRANKLIN 1st of 2017 ---New Yellow Circle Off of Florida...Invest 99L Hanging In Tough... Will It Become GERT?

Hurricane Franklin.
1st of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

5 PM makes it official!
You can see this happening without recon going in..
..tho recon will confirm it.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Notice the white spot in the center pop out.
Mexico will deal with heavy rain and hurricane force winds.

99L has 50/50 odds.
And what will they say at 8 PM re: Bahama Blob?

Hello Wednesday Surprise
I have said several times recently to worry on home grown.
This is a good example.
Nothing might really form...
...but it would aid in steering currents for 99L to it's ESE

Getting really crowded isn't it?

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Notice the swirly area East of Florida?
The NHC just introduced a yellow circle there.
This an example of how modeling is not there yet.

I'm starting with this is it is close in.
First rule of journalism is small local is bigger...
...that big system far away.

Meanwhile we are still watching 99L.
I'll update with a new post after the 5 PM advisory.
Still waiting on Franklin to go Hurricane

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Look at that swirling green....
Trying to close off an eye like area.
So far Franklin hasn't blinked.
Stay tuned.

So I went out this morning. I decided I needed a bit of a break from the computer and worrying on kids traveling (someone is always traveling in my family) and rest my eyes as I get summertime headaches. My back hurts if I sit way too long so I walked and talked and shopped. Teavana is having a really good sale. Blood Orange Sherbert something Iced Tea. Came home and news is breaking everywhere. I have tons of messages online and I missed seeing the yellow circle pop up out of nowhere. I'm not a big Drudge fan, though I love looking at his site for the pictures, but that's seriously BIG BLACK LETTERS... but you know me I'm going to go loop and loop and look at the models. I'll update later today around dinner time. Waiting to see if we get a hurricane out of Franklin. Wouldn't it be funny if the name Gert gets used for something other than 99L? Will Franklin live up to his expectations? Will 99L disappoint and will a tropical system form off shore Miami in the Bahamas before 99L even gets there.


Close to Hurricane Strength ...
..forecast to become Hurricane Franklin

ir4-animated.gif (720×480)

Franklin cradled in the Bay of Campeche  aka BOC
Spinning over very warn water...
...with some light shear to the North.
I used this image so you can see the whole picture.
The trof that is creating flooding problems.

Now look at the Water Vapor Loop

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Note the extreme heavy moisture in that Southern band that has been lashing some of the coastal cities in Mexico far ahead of the arrival of the eye making landfall. This set up increases the flooding threat in those coastal towns. A map of that area being affected by Franklin is shown below.

Forecast Discussion is written well at 5 AM.
They have forecast it to be a 80 MPH Hurricane.
So it's pretty much a done deal.


So here are the players above. 
Franklin in BOC
99L in the Atlantic. 

Note explanation for upping winds to 70 MPH.
Setting the table for upgrade to Hurricane later today.

Good discussion.

Below discussion on types of intensification.
The door is left open in case it gets stronger .
Also the size has expanded.
Franklin has bulked up.
So watches and warnings are expended.
Sort of in tandem as size does matter.

One last look at Franklin.
Really most photogenic storm of the year.
It's still early but it's impressive.
Stay tuned for later in August, September.
Maybe Labor Day...

Nice neat, tight center shown below:

Moving on let's take a look at Invest 99L
99L is an example of the many things.
Being focused .. mind, body and soul.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

You can click on the link below and watch the slow progression of 99L over the last five days. Picture a peddler of some sort making his way across a trade route, day by day to his destination. Those early spice traders perhaps that traveled East to find pepper and spices to bring back to Europe. You couldn't just order it on Amazon and have them deliver it for you in less than an hour. Waves like 99L are slow travelers that sometimes have an end game and the plan is to get where it is going and avoid getting killed off along the way. Remember... maybe of those spice traders never made it to India..

You can actually go back a week or so in time and watch as 99L left Africa amidst a great deal of hype and model support. 

And it began it's slow journey. Part of the problem early on was that it was a huge wave and there were multiple centers across a wide area. One great wave suddenly became an odd mess that stayed together yet didn't accomplish much. Ever know someone when they were young and they had this awesome brain, high IQ off the chart and a GPA way above 4.0 (yeah that was possible in my world) and you figure they will go out into the world and do great things. Sometimes they are interested in different things, they are left brain and right brain all in one and they blow you away. Maybe they will create some life saving new drug or make a fortune or run for office and save the State of Florida or even the whole USA. And, yet over time nothing much really happened. They went to college, they partied, they belonged to clubs and they got lost somewhere along the way. Now ...sometimes you never hear from them again unless you go looking on Classmates and are surprised they are living a quiet life somewhere with a nice enough looking wife, two children and a cat and a dog. Other times they fall off the grid almost completely except for a rare sighting at a public event somewhere and then they show up again late in life. They become what is known as a "late bloomer" and you can see the potential realized that you saw when they were young. Not everyone develops the same way and life can be cruel sometimes, but sometimes potential is realized late. Gert may be that sort of girl. So keep watching Invest 99L that is wearing orange this morning at the NHC and has a 40% chance of developing in five days. I spelled out five just for the NHC as they are into that these days. Okay that was low, but eventually I'll give my thoughts on PTC Seven but now is not that day.

Models show 99L moving WNW into our part of the world and ending up near the Bahamas somewhere East of Florida. We are hoping a cold front moves towards the South and eventually picks up 99L (Gert?) and scoops it up and out to sea. Again it is August and that's hoping for a lot. Then again it's August 2017 and we have had a few fronts. Then again the last front moved down, cleared Carolina and then went flat and backed up a bit again. So hoping for a cold front in August is something I do, however I wouldn't say where or when 99L will meet the cold front just yet. So stay tubed. Models shown below are by Levi Cowan from Tropical Tidbits and posted by Mike on Spaghetti Models. And as always the caveat is that without a closed center and information from recon models are often messy from run to run and have what is called junk runs even. You remember that saying "don't fire until you see the white of their eyes" ?? It's kind of like that with models, only rely on them when you can see a real center and even better an eye in a hurricane. And, even then they fall short sometimes and off the pedestal we put them on in search of perfection in tropical forecasting.

Sounds confusing isn't it? Not really, it's very simplistic actually. There are a few possibilities every time a wave rolls off of Africa.

a) It forms fast and gets a name and a cone and often goes out to sea as a fish storm.
b) It struggles along and after falling apart fast it bounces back and gets a name. WNW to....
c) It starts to form then falls apart, fights SAL, barely is there and then bounces back aka Andrew.
d) Despite all the hype and pretty selfies shown online it slowly fades away.

It's that simple and no I am not saying this could be Andrew, I'm pointing out Andrew formed late as did Camille that didn't form until it got to near where Invest 90L formed and Katrina formed off the Florida coast. Some very famous hurricanes have been late bloomers. Oh add in the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

You can see the curl forming by 99L
Look at the deep tropical moisture Franklin has available. 

Will Invest 99L become Gert? Or will 99L just simply fade and drift away? 

Stay tuned. Later I will talk on updated models. The GFS and the EURO have been sent to a counselor to see if they can work out their many differences. Will they come together and produce a reliable forecast for the forecasters who would like more consistency? Only time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm for faster updates and interactive discussion.

Ps 2 thoughts. 
Last year's memorable, long tracking couldn't get it together Invest 99L became Hermine.
And if you get too much pepper near you ... you sneeze, yet people still love it!

Hermine link from last year for those of you still here...

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


At 11:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, unless these boys are getting there weather instruments out of a Cracker Jack Box, it seems to me that every model has invest 99 getting picked up and pushed out to sea with NO threat whatsoever to USA soil!


Post a Comment

<< Home