Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 07, 2017

Updated! FRANKLIN and Discussion on 99L Models ... Eye Like Area Trying To Form. Convection Wrapping Around the Center. What's Holding It Back? Will It Pull Together & Do the RI Dance? Hurricane? Needs to Better Align First. Oh and 99L... and the ULL. The ULL is the Big Player Here!

Little late night update here.
First off not much has changed with Franklin.
Nice form, beautiful bands but pressure isn't dropping.

The wind arrival time is shown above.
Note this relates as to when it gets into the BOC.
Where it is forecast to strengthen.

NHC is talking on possible hurricane strength in BOC.
And we are watching as the center  moves towards land.
Parts of the whole package, Franklin's weather is over the Yucatan.
Understand that as the NHC talks on landfall of the center.
Parts of Franklin are already entering the BOC.
It's a big round system ...

We track the center.
But there is weather in the whole envelope.

I promised some discussion on 99L

It's really not important today what the NHC shows regarding it's chances in the next two or five days of developing. It's a mute point in ways and sometimes it's good not to get lost in the details. 99L is a wave that was large and stayed together longer than most. 90L was a wave that didn't develop and then became Franklin. So keep that in mind while worrying the NHC might drop it for a day or so.. or not.  

Originally the GFS was in love with this wave and gave it high odds in the short term for development. All the money was on this wave to become Franklin. The EURO however never liked it and barely showed any shred of evidence that it would even last this long. The EURO from day one was all over the Yucatan Solution for Franklin. And, as often happens, the EURO won that shoot out with the GFS.

The GFS slowly began to back away from the let's cream the East Coast scenario and eventually dropped 90L altogether from developing. You could see the convection that was left from 99L in the models and the NHC began dropping the odds. Not because the GFS ignored it as much as it did not develop and looked worse by the day. But it stayed there, it hung in as SAL ate away at it's huge pouch of moisture. And then the EURO noticed it and ever since the EURO has developed it and brought it close to the East Coast. We are talking long range models outside the five day NHC map I said to ignore.

The GFS develops a Low around Jacksonville exactly where Julia formed (it must have liked her) and takes it up along the coast but off shore. It's worth noting it is slower than the Euro.  The image below is for August 17th and again models change in real time so nothing is set in stone ever.

On August 14th the EURO has a closed system below.
Off the Florida coast East of Jax and Daytona.

And it moves up the coast very close to OBX.
Carolina bound sort of..

So now what does the NHC do?
Ignore the golden child from Europe?
Ignore the whole thing for a few days?
Lower odds, raise odds?
Or just leave a 10% yellow circle?

A wave that does not die from adverse conditions and makes it across the ocean needs to be watched. Especially coming off of last year when storms refused to form until they crawled up onto the beaches of Florida. Upper Level Lows have been vicious this year as they were last year and this could be a similar set up as last year and either way... you just gotta watch. Time will tell. But do not get lost in the colors the NHC Is showing for the next 2 to 5 days, because the big concern may be in a week's time. If the EURO continues to show 99L developing it's something we will have to think seriously on in a few days. As always watch the system as much as you watch the models. Go to anytime you want to see the models fast. But please watch the set up, the loops and the discussion put out by NHC.  Every six hours they update their tropical discussion for the Atlantic. It's worth reading while looking at a satellite image of the Tropical Atlantic.

For the next few days Franklin is center stage. The nicest looking Tropical Storm this year. 

AGAIN... a good part of Franklin..
is over the Yucatan.
But the winds, the core is not.
Nicely wound system.

Below you can see the winds.
Tight, compact...
..and far away 99L shows up for a change.
Been hard to even find it.
Still has a pulse...
Keep watching.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

Updated image of Franklin you can compare and contrast.
An eye like feature is trying to pop out.
More so the banding had kicked up tremendously.
This has the shape and should make hurricane.
It's a wait and see situation. 
Recon is what we are waiting for.
And recon is in on it's way and in the storm.

What looks like an eye popping out is not officially a center or an eye. The shear has lessened and the convection is beginning to wrap around the center. The eye like feature is a bit to the NE of the actual center. Unless recon gets in there and decides that the center has relocated under the stronger convection which sometimes happens. For now it's a watch and wait. When shear lessens and you have a beautifully formed system properly aligned watch out things happen fast. I'll be back shortly with the next update soon.

Tropical Storm Franklin.
Sitting on the ledge of Honduras.
Aimed at the Yucatan.
Looks good.
Note the convection is displaced to the East of the Center.

Put Franklin in motion and you can see what it going on.
The greens in it's rain shield are showing nice.
You can see how wrapped up it is on most sides.
Beginning to pump.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

So what is the problem?
Why does it only have 60 MPH winds?
Looks like an eye should be popping out soon...
...still a 60 MPH TS.
Because it has an inner problem that needs to be fixed.
Shear has been there.
Shear is expected to lessen.

So I want to explain a few things here briefly as I will update later in the day. Shear is expected to be less closer to the coast. I don't need to put up lots of shear charts either you believe me or you don't and if not I guess you're here for the music :) Seriously the NHC starts off their 5 AM discussion with a long, defense of why they upgraded this system despite having a poorly formed center or a center that is there but very shallow and not easily discerned. They went with the upgrade at 11 PM when there was no signature  on Earthnull and I didn't go there as really Earthnull does not replace a dropsonde dropped into the system. It's a tool we use and a good one, but nothing more. You can see below the discussion that the Earthnull signature looks much better this morning. I asked last night if there was a west wind and again remember the REAL center of Franklin is VERY close to land. The bright red swirling ball is off to the right of the center. Please read the discussion below I highlighted in blue from the NHC. Note I'm putting both discussions here. The 10 AM first and the earlier one below. It's good to see how things progress with regard to forecasting a tropical storm. Again note the discussion on the possibility of Franklin getting set up for possible intensification... maybe even rapid intensification.

Note in the newest discussion they talk on recon.
Obviously they need to find the west wind.
Pin point the exact center that's been hard to find.
The convection is easy to find.

Below they defend the 11 PM call on Franklin.

Note my tweet from earlier on Twitter.

This is why they went long with the discussion on the center. There's a question on the center.  This has happened since time began with systems near the Yucatan. Of late the NHC has erred on the side of caution by wanting to issue advisories for an area rather than wait for them to hit that forecast sweet spot and have them suddenly form and eye and go through rapid intensification just before landfall. The whole purpose here is to give the public the most lead time with a reliable forecast. At the same time we don't upgrade to even a tropical depression without a closed center. 

Next I'm posting the second part of the discussion as it relates to Franklin but also another wave in the Caribbean and whatever is left of 99L in a day or so. There is a large Upper Level Low that is parked near Puerto Rico and if it's there any longer PR should start taxing it. It's location with regard to Franklin has helped it breathe, given it that beautiful curvature you will see below and may aid in a more rapid intensification down the road. The same ULL is killing off the waves to the SE of it by shearing them. Seems the ULL can't do two things at the same time and is actually ingesting some of the moisture from the wave to the SE of it. Go figure.  Again watch the trend as the newer forecast shows Franklin being 70 MPH again and again the NHC is conservative usually.

Forecast to be 70 MPH in 12 Hours.
5 MPH more and it's a hurricane. 
Can TS Franklin do it?

10 AM they are back to 70 MPH as they were last night.
You can see the 5 AM below.
Earlier at 5 AM they pulled back on that.
Now they put it back in.
Confidence is not strong.
But the potential is there.

5 AM is shown below with it topping out at 65 MPH.

Always watch the trend in forecasting.
There is more confidence at 10 AM than at 5 AM.

Again it's worth understanding that Franklin could become a hurricane easy enough. Won't take much as the set up is there with warm water and low shear, but it's near the coast so it may run out of room. Should Franklin do the deed and become the first hurricane of the 2017 Hurricane Season than winds will be a problem so stay tuned.  Rob from does feel it will become a hurricane as many others out there. But the NHC tends to be conservative but after they get recon in there ... their discussion and package may change. Quote from Rob highlighted below.

Here is Franklin on the WV imagery. Looking beautiful. Looking like an eye might pop out. All the shape, form, curvature and some banding trying to happen. So close to land.

Zooming in 

Again remember the center is to the LEFT.
The deep convection is NOT over the center.
If they align better watch out.

The current cone is shown below:
Not much has changed.
10 AM Cone

It's worth noting it is crossing the Yucatan at the widest part.
The Yucatan is flat so that helps it.
Often they reform as soon as they hit BOC.
And shear is forecast to be light there.
So the chance for Hurricane Franklin exists.

Again at 5 AM they pulled back on long range forecast topping it out at 65 MPH. At 10 AM they went back to the 11 PM advisory from last night when they showed it topping out at 70 MPH. I'm going to leave them both here up above so you can compare. At the top I will update with the 1 PM later. It may seem like only a five mph difference but it shows the confidence (or not) that the NHC has in whether Franklin remains weak or intensifies close to hurricane strength. When I was sitting in my living room living in Miami Beach and John Hope was excited that Andrew had dropped 5 mph and was no longer a Cat 5 he was really excited. To me living 3 blocks from the ocean I wasn't too excited about a 5 mph wind reduction. But when they put it into their forecast for the long term it shows what they are thinking and their confidence or lack there of with regard to the future intensity of Franklin. It's worth noting what they do not say and that is the rain is already happening across Central American and Mexico as I type this and yet we are always focused on landfall with regard to the NHC product. The reason I didn't show the graphic for when the highest winds will arrive is because at this point the issue with Frankin is from flooding, heavy rain not wind. Again look at the convection to the right of it's center shown above. It is a very wet, huge tropical storm. And, again it formed from a tropical wave that did not form due to SAL and then it did. Remember that with regard to 99L and the waves behind it.

Bottom Line:
The trend is important to watch.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Going wide with the loop above. You can see the ULL. It looks like a black inverted tropical storm. Moisture has gotten trapped inside. 

If you are on the friendly side of an ULL it is well...your friend. It helps you develop. But if you are on the unfriendly side of an ULL it tries to kill you off. And that semi permanent ULL has been killing off the waves all season so far. 

I don't want to go deep with regard to 99L now.
But I'll discuss it later today in depth.
More the various waves moving West.
For now the show is Franklin.

Truth is stranger than fiction it seems.
We have a Tropical Storm ....
...but we can't be sure there's a west wind.
But what do they got to lose?
Give warning to an area in it's path.
And with some forecasts of rapid intensification.

Why the things we do?
It is what it is.
This is what we do.
We like to give a heads up and warning.

Note the models are up at Spaghetti Models.
I'll go longer on 99L later.
And the wave behind 99L

Again remember Franklin formed from a wave...
..that formed later rather than sooner.
Close in.

Til then enjoy the words and the music.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps...Again I'll be updating throughout the day so check back in.
Remember when waves have problems forming...
..and storms cannot align it looks like a "crappy season"
BUT...things change fast in the tropics.
And a crappy season becomes...
...a hurricane season from hell real fast.

A memory you never forget...

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


At 4:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, the update I just got on Franklin is.....its about to peter out when it hits the land, and will struggle big time to even touch becoming a himicane on the other side! In vest 99 is hitting dry air AND wind shear, and will be completely downgraded to 0% of development shortly! So that means why don't we just speculate on the next wave coming off the African coast and have some REAL fun! I say it plows through the dry air and windshear and develops into a category 5 hurricane that slams directly into either Savannah, Beaufort or Charleston causing MASSIVE devastation and destruction! In fact, I'm going to evacuate RIGHT NOW to Minnesota so my house, which is 10 miles inland, won't have me in it when it falls into the Atlantic Ocean!

At 6:06 AM, Blogger BobbiStorm said...

It didn't Peter out. Just saying. Franklin actually bulked up. Possibly took some sort of illegal supplements that they sell down there in Mexico and well go figure. Looking good and NHC forecasts it to become a hurricane. I like Savannah so really hope 99L catches the front and takes a trip out of town so to speak. I think you are pretty safe in Minnesota! Have a good day!!


Post a Comment

<< Home