The Beat Goes On.. We Pray, We Share ONLINE, We Write, We Sing... Stay Alive By Following the Rules Stop the Spread.......Now!

Everything seems cancelled of late.

But what isn't cancelled is Spring.

That tree comes alive every day....

...in a different way. 

Today it's yellow bordering on Spring Green.

The leaves are hanging limp from rain.

Quiet, steady drizzle reminding me of Seattle.

It's so gray today and quietly gray.

In Monsey NY it snowed.

Barely snowed all winter so...

...caught everyone's attention.

Homes far apart.

Deer wandering through the woods.

Snow covered woods.

A friend in Crown Heights saw sleet.

She told me on the phone while we were talking.

My brother in Greece is a writer.

He's a singer.

Writer/Singer/Artist.

Our Mother was an Artist.

Okay she was a Writer/Artist/Singer.

Nuff said....

You get the idea.

So while watching the rain.

Listening to my brother sing.

I decided to write a blog today.

No hurricanes anywhere...

... but writing is good for me.

If it helps you some, good.

I figure we all have time to read these days.

You can watch this ten times...

..and see different things in his collage in motion.

You also order his book.

He could use the money in Greece...

(LOCKED DOWN)

And we all know what needing money is like.

Good poetry. A very good read.

And online there's no germs :)

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1980911312

So as I have been a student of history.

I wanted to look back at our history.

Not talking about ancient history.

History has been filled with plagues.

Somehow we naively thought ...

...we were past that.

Nope.

So in ways we are distancing............

.........yet we are socializing together long distance.

Estee's mother is cheerful.

She has a business online.

She and her husband make me smile and laugh.

And that's really good.

Eventually I'll buy one of those dresses..

...the dresses with pockets.

But for one minute last night.

It was as if I was there with them in Toronto.

https://www.instagram.com/esteezonline/

Now back to our regular program...

Corona Time. 

Right?

When I'm in Key West I go near this tree.

Huge poinciana tree.. one of many.

I smile realizing I'm looking up at blossoms...

..from a tree my Ancestors looked at also.

The Royal Poincianas of Key West are glorious.

My family had one outside their house on Whitehead Street.

They also had services in their home until a Synagogue was formed.

Pioneer Days in the 1880s.

A plague is a plague by any name be it a virus or some disease we thought we got rid of and thankfully we have gotten rid of quite a few. Yet somehow viruses find ways of evolving into a new disease that we have no immunity to and as our scientists race for a cure while many of us pray and try to help others and others research or write or sing songs as life goes on even in these social distancing times. My son helped a friend put on a Bas Mitzvah Party for her 12 year old daughter who had her whole Bas Mitzvah online on Zoom with famous singers coming on singing for her as well as her relatives far away unable to attend but who were together online. In her house the family dressed up, danced, sang songs and she gave her Speech to her class and relatives online and she was happy. I mean really happy... and for the first time in quite a while I smiled, laugheded and felt uplifted. There is something magical about sharing in someone's joy... even while physically we are socially distancing but our hearts are together as one. Trust me... we are way better off in 2020 than when my Great Grandparents suffered through Yellow Fever in Key West.

Growing up in Florida my Grandmother Mary explained to me endlessly with great emotion as she told the story explaining that the reason our family moved to Tampa was because Tampa had "runnin water" as in Key West they did not and her mother almost died from Malaria (that's what she said) from drinking water from the cisterns. She had been deathly ill and the Sisters at St. Mary's nursed her back to health and when she found herself pregnant with my Grandmother it seems the main nun came to their tinware store on Whitehead Street and insisted they leave immediately and go back up north if they wanted this baby to live. Grandma described it with great flourish...they swept in with their long black dresses and big white headpieces and the Mother Superior was adamant they leave. Apparently Mary's mother Ida had left the sick house to go and help deliver a baby on Aronowitz Lane across the street and had fallen sick again and they nursed her back to health again. Now once healthy and pregnant they decided to take a stand so they marched into the family store and told them War was coming and that would bring more disease and she needed to leave the Island. So they packed up their fine English pots and pans as Grandma said and took a ship up to Philadelphia and NJ where they had some property and after delivering my Grandmother safely they eventually moved to Tampa where they had "running water" and no more drinking from cisterns. Below is from a book telling their story.

Excellent book to read while you are socially distancing.

Trying to avoid CNN MSNBC and FOX...

(except when Cuomo is on ..of course)

This was always family legend until it was actually in a book written a few years ago by an author who lives in Key West who included it in his book on Yellow Fever epidemics and how they impacted the residents of Key West. Not that I didn't trust my Grandma Mary but to see it in print was crazy and I thought (last year) ... "how does someone live through 104 fever for 4 days and live?"  The footnote explains the details are from the meticulous records of the Doctor in Key West. Sadly... he didn't understand the disease had nothing to do with how anyone was living but it had been the wettest summer in years (historically so) and the mosquito population was alive and well breeding in the cisterns that was the only means of water to drink in Key West. Understand Key West has no river... the rain water was collected in the cisterns and they drank the water and Yellow Fever was a reoccurring theme known often as "tropical fever" so you'll see. 

https://www.amazon.com/JEWS-KEY-WEST-Smugglers-Revolutionaries/dp/0984331271 Really it's an awesome read about Key West history through the lives of the Jewish Pioneers who were there quite early and involved in the Cigar Business as my family was... and supporting Jose Marti's struggle to liberate Cuba ...to rum running and smuggling people in from Cuba who were stuck there escaping from Nazi Germany to the modern time that you all know when strolling down Duval Street and watching the sunset on Mallory Square .. may we be able to do that again soon!  My family was naturalized at the Government Building there as Citizens of Key West and the United States so .. I'm a Conch ;) 

So understand this was what life was like even in the paradise back before there was running water or means to get rid of the mosquitoes and before we had antibiotics and the list goes on. Yet, here we are in 2020 temporarily stumped by Covid-19 racing to find the best way to heal those who test positive and find a way to protect those from not succumbing as the author said... to this horrible disease. Yet, despite how horrible it is we are finding ways to learn together, work together and share joy even on Zoom or Twitter or Instagram or choose your way to share the joy.  A friend wants to come over later this week with her children who play musical instruments and play music to me from down below the balcony. We are all awesome, socially distant but connected with love in prayers and sharing what joy goes on.

I have a commemorative book from Key West.

It was put out by the diocese on an anniversary.

I was doing historical research in the office...

...and was able to obtain the book.

It speaks of the earlier history of Key West in the 1870s.

The times the word "YELLOW FEVER" comes up..

...are too many to count.

My family was there in the 1880s.

and the beat of "Yellow Jack" went on and on.

Years ago plagues were isolated.

Plagues were locational.

Key West and New Orleans had...

Charleston and Savannah did not.

Before my family went to England...

...they came from somewhere in Russia.

There were fires that burned the village down.

There was persecution ...

There were wars and plagues.

The other day while trying to escape a bit..

I picked a book off the bookshelf.

Opened it randomly......

It was about Rabbi Avrohom David who lived long ago.

It was a random page mind you.

In the Kherson region a plague broke out.

Early 1800s I believe.

His heroic work to help many everywhere..

..was honored when the plague was over.

Again.....he survived.

Life went on.

So it is what it is... even random history books.

Bring you back full circle. 

We just have to get through this...

...as our ancestors did.

Okay we are humbled and stumped.

But nothing new under the sun.

Mother Nature continues showing us that.

Rain, Snow, Sleet eventually Hurricane Season.

I'm friends with the Chabad Rabbi in Savannah.

His brothers are Rabbis in Athens Georgia..

..and Charleston SC.

A few months back I was speaking with his son in Savannah.

My husband and I were sitting in their living room.

The walls filled with images of their students in happy times.

I told him my Grandmother's Grandparents lived near Leeds.

He said he's ask his father...

... he obviously recognized the name.

The Abrahams family there was well known.

We wished each other a good sweet year.

Their work in Savannah is inspiring.

Though they were closed this last week...

... they sent food to those who needed.

Hard for clergy to escape this... 

.. many who nurture others were first hit.

And the list goes on and on and on.

I'm praying for so many...

...so many I know battling this disease.

So many I know trying to avoid it.

So what can you do?

I write so I wrote.

I'm here today and thankful.

I'm saying prayers TOGETHER with friends on WhatsApp.

I'm remembering my family's history...

... rejoicing in people who are trying to celebrate today.

Birthdays are celebrated online ...

... my grandchildren in Coconut Grove say prayers online

Chabad School there on Zoom.

An article from Chabad of Beijing.

On FOLLOWING ADVICE FROM DOCTORS.

They did and many did not get the disease.

Just follow the rules. Please.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/china-rabbi-says-synagogue

-shutdowns-shielded-congregants-from-coronavirus/

Yes, life must go on...

Life evolves.

I pray we come out of this better, wiser, kinder people.

We are a global world.

People travel.

The virus traveled... all around the world.

Now may the world heal!

May the message and the cure travel as fast.

Do your part.

Apparently Neil Diamond is...

He wrote a song (like my brother)

About ..washing your hands.

So rather than reach out... 

..reach out online or on the phone.

Wash your hands!

With prayers for your health!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Reach out with your heart...

.....reach out with your words and songs.

Updated! FRANKLIN and Discussion on 99L Models ... Eye Like Area Trying To Form. Convection Wrapping Around the Center. What's Holding It Back? Will It Pull Together & Do the RI Dance? Hurricane? Needs to Better Align First. Oh and 99L... and the ULL. The ULL is the Big Player Here!

Little late night update here.

First off not much has changed with Franklin.

Nice form, beautiful bands but pressure isn't dropping.

The wind arrival time is shown above.

Note this relates as to when it gets into the BOC.

Where it is forecast to strengthen.

NHC is talking on possible hurricane strength in BOC.

And we are watching as the center  moves towards land.

Parts of the whole package, Franklin's weather is over the Yucatan.

Understand that as the NHC talks on landfall of the center.

Parts of Franklin are already entering the BOC.

It's a big round system ...

We track the center.

But there is weather in the whole envelope.

I promised some discussion on 99L

It's really not important today what the NHC shows regarding it's chances in the next two or five days of developing. It's a mute point in ways and sometimes it's good not to get lost in the details. 99L is a wave that was large and stayed together longer than most. 90L was a wave that didn't develop and then became Franklin. So keep that in mind while worrying the NHC might drop it for a day or so.. or not.  

Originally the GFS was in love with this wave and gave it high odds in the short term for development. All the money was on this wave to become Franklin. The EURO however never liked it and barely showed any shred of evidence that it would even last this long. The EURO from day one was all over the Yucatan Solution for Franklin. And, as often happens, the EURO won that shoot out with the GFS.

The GFS slowly began to back away from the let's cream the East Coast scenario and eventually dropped 90L altogether from developing. You could see the convection that was left from 99L in the models and the NHC began dropping the odds. Not because the GFS ignored it as much as it did not develop and looked worse by the day. But it stayed there, it hung in as SAL ate away at it's huge pouch of moisture. And then the EURO noticed it and ever since the EURO has developed it and brought it close to the East Coast. We are talking long range models outside the five day NHC map I said to ignore.

The GFS develops a Low around Jacksonville exactly where Julia formed (it must have liked her) and takes it up along the coast but off shore. It's worth noting it is slower than the Euro.  The image below is for August 17th and again models change in real time so nothing is set in stone ever.

On August 14th the EURO has a closed system below.

Off the Florida coast East of Jax and Daytona.

And it moves up the coast very close to OBX.

Carolina bound sort of..

So now what does the NHC do?

Ignore the golden child from Europe?

Ignore the whole thing for a few days?

Lower odds, raise odds?

Or just leave a 10% yellow circle?

A wave that does not die from adverse conditions and makes it across the ocean needs to be watched. Especially coming off of last year when storms refused to form until they crawled up onto the beaches of Florida. Upper Level Lows have been vicious this year as they were last year and this could be a similar set up as last year and either way... you just gotta watch. Time will tell. But do not get lost in the colors the NHC Is showing for the next 2 to 5 days, because the big concern may be in a week's time. If the EURO continues to show 99L developing it's something we will have to think seriously on in a few days. As always watch the system as much as you watch the models. Go to www.spaghettimodels.com anytime you want to see the models fast. But please watch the set up, the loops and the discussion put out by NHC.  Every six hours they update their tropical discussion for the Atlantic. It's worth reading while looking at a satellite image of the Tropical Atlantic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/080000_MIATWDAT.shtml?

For the next few days Franklin is center stage. The nicest looking Tropical Storm this year. 

AGAIN... a good part of Franklin..

is over the Yucatan.

But the winds, the core is not.

Nicely wound system.

Below you can see the winds.

Tight, compact...

..and far away 99L shows up for a change.

Been hard to even find it.

Still has a pulse...

Keep watching.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

Updated image of Franklin you can compare and contrast.

An eye like feature is trying to pop out.

More so the banding had kicked up tremendously.

This has the shape and should make hurricane.

It's a wait and see situation. 

Recon is what we are waiting for.

And recon is in on it's way and in the storm.

What looks like an eye popping out is not officially a center or an eye. The shear has lessened and the convection is beginning to wrap around the center. The eye like feature is a bit to the NE of the actual center. Unless recon gets in there and decides that the center has relocated under the stronger convection which sometimes happens. For now it's a watch and wait. When shear lessens and you have a beautifully formed system properly aligned watch out things happen fast. I'll be back shortly with the next update soon.

Tropical Storm Franklin.

Sitting on the ledge of Honduras.

Aimed at the Yucatan.

Looks good.

Note the convection is displaced to the East of the Center.

Put Franklin in motion and you can see what it going on.

The greens in it's rain shield are showing nice.

You can see how wrapped up it is on most sides.

Beginning to pump.

So what is the problem?

Why does it only have 60 MPH winds?

Looks like an eye should be popping out soon...

...still a 60 MPH TS.

Because it has an inner problem that needs to be fixed.

Shear has been there.

Shear is expected to lessen.

So I want to explain a few things here briefly as I will update later in the day. Shear is expected to be less closer to the coast. I don't need to put up lots of shear charts either you believe me or you don't and if not I guess you're here for the music :) Seriously the NHC starts off their 5 AM discussion with a long, defense of why they upgraded this system despite having a poorly formed center or a center that is there but very shallow and not easily discerned. They went with the upgrade at 11 PM when there was no signature  on Earthnull and I didn't go there as really Earthnull does not replace a dropsonde dropped into the system. It's a tool we use and a good one, but nothing more. You can see below the discussion that the Earthnull signature looks much better this morning. I asked last night if there was a west wind and again remember the REAL center of Franklin is VERY close to land. The bright red swirling ball is off to the right of the center. Please read the discussion below I highlighted in blue from the NHC. Note I'm putting both discussions here. The 10 AM first and the earlier one below. It's good to see how things progress with regard to forecasting a tropical storm. Again note the discussion on the possibility of Franklin getting set up for possible intensification... maybe even rapid intensification.

Note in the newest discussion they talk on recon.

Obviously they need to find the west wind.

Pin point the exact center that's been hard to find.

The convection is easy to find.

Below they defend the 11 PM call on Franklin.

Note my tweet from earlier on Twitter.

This is why they went long with the discussion on the center. There's a question on the center.  This has happened since time began with systems near the Yucatan. Of late the NHC has erred on the side of caution by wanting to issue advisories for an area rather than wait for them to hit that forecast sweet spot and have them suddenly form and eye and go through rapid intensification just before landfall. The whole purpose here is to give the public the most lead time with a reliable forecast. At the same time we don't upgrade to even a tropical depression without a closed center. 

Next I'm posting the second part of the discussion as it relates to Franklin but also another wave in the Caribbean and whatever is left of 99L in a day or so. There is a large Upper Level Low that is parked near Puerto Rico and if it's there any longer PR should start taxing it. It's location with regard to Franklin has helped it breathe, given it that beautiful curvature you will see below and may aid in a more rapid intensification down the road. The same ULL is killing off the waves to the SE of it by shearing them. Seems the ULL can't do two things at the same time and is actually ingesting some of the moisture from the wave to the SE of it. Go figure.  Again watch the trend as the newer forecast shows Franklin being 70 MPH again and again the NHC is conservative usually.

Forecast to be 70 MPH in 12 Hours.

5 MPH more and it's a hurricane. 

Can TS Franklin do it?

10 AM they are back to 70 MPH as they were last night.

You can see the 5 AM below.

Earlier at 5 AM they pulled back on that.

Now they put it back in.

Confidence is not strong.

But the potential is there.

5 AM is shown below with it topping out at 65 MPH.

Always watch the trend in forecasting.

There is more confidence at 10 AM than at 5 AM.

Again it's worth understanding that Franklin could become a hurricane easy enough. Won't take much as the set up is there with warm water and low shear, but it's near the coast so it may run out of room. Should Franklin do the deed and become the first hurricane of the 2017 Hurricane Season than winds will be a problem so stay tuned.  Rob from www.crownweather.com does feel it will become a hurricane as many others out there. But the NHC tends to be conservative but after they get recon in there ... their discussion and package may change. Quote from Rob highlighted below.

Here is Franklin on the WV imagery. Looking beautiful. Looking like an eye might pop out. All the shape, form, curvature and some banding trying to happen. So close to land.

Zooming in 

Again remember the center is to the LEFT.

The deep convection is NOT over the center.

If they align better watch out.

The current cone is shown below:

Not much has changed.

10 AM Cone

It's worth noting it is crossing the Yucatan at the widest part.

The Yucatan is flat so that helps it.

Often they reform as soon as they hit BOC.

And shear is forecast to be light there.

So the chance for Hurricane Franklin exists.

Again at 5 AM they pulled back on long range forecast topping it out at 65 MPH. At 10 AM they went back to the 11 PM advisory from last night when they showed it topping out at 70 MPH. I'm going to leave them both here up above so you can compare. At the top I will update with the 1 PM later. It may seem like only a five mph difference but it shows the confidence (or not) that the NHC has in whether Franklin remains weak or intensifies close to hurricane strength. When I was sitting in my living room living in Miami Beach and John Hope was excited that Andrew had dropped 5 mph and was no longer a Cat 5 he was really excited. To me living 3 blocks from the ocean I wasn't too excited about a 5 mph wind reduction. But when they put it into their forecast for the long term it shows what they are thinking and their confidence or lack there of with regard to the future intensity of Franklin. It's worth noting what they do not say and that is the rain is already happening across Central American and Mexico as I type this and yet we are always focused on landfall with regard to the NHC product. The reason I didn't show the graphic for when the highest winds will arrive is because at this point the issue with Frankin is from flooding, heavy rain not wind. Again look at the convection to the right of it's center shown above. It is a very wet, huge tropical storm. And, again it formed from a tropical wave that did not form due to SAL and then it did. Remember that with regard to 99L and the waves behind it.

Bottom Line:

The trend is important to watch.

Going wide with the loop above. You can see the ULL. It looks like a black inverted tropical storm. Moisture has gotten trapped inside. 

If you are on the friendly side of an ULL it is well...your friend. It helps you develop. But if you are on the unfriendly side of an ULL it tries to kill you off. And that semi permanent ULL has been killing off the waves all season so far. 

I don't want to go deep with regard to 99L now.

But I'll discuss it later today in depth.

More the various waves moving West.

For now the show is Franklin.

Truth is stranger than fiction it seems.

We have a Tropical Storm ....

...but we can't be sure there's a west wind.

But what do they got to lose?

Give warning to an area in it's path.

And with some forecasts of rapid intensification.

Why the things we do?

It is what it is.

This is what we do.

We like to give a heads up and warning.

Note the models are up at Spaghetti Models.

I'll go longer on 99L later.

And the wave behind 99L

Again remember Franklin formed from a wave...

..that formed later rather than sooner.

Close in.

Til then enjoy the words and the music.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps...Again I'll be updating throughout the day so check back in.

Remember when waves have problems forming...

..and storms cannot align it looks like a "crappy season"

BUT...things change fast in the tropics.

And a crappy season becomes...

...a hurricane season from hell real fast.

A memory you never forget...