Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Euro Wakes Up and Blesses the New African Wave. Possible Yucatan Trouble. GOM BLOB. Models Wake Up While I Play at the Beach

Wednesday Evening..
Midweek Look at the Tropics.
You can compare and contrast in a few days.
See how consistent the models will be with the new wave.

Satellite imagery of the the wave the Euro likes.

X marks the spot it's not off of Africa yet.

You see we are wave watchers this time of year.
Note the site below.
Just for watching and studying waves.

I like waves too... even ones at the beach.

Wrightsville Beach. 

I went to the beach today.
Daughter in town. 
We love the beach.
Went for the day.
Ignored the pot.
It boiled.

I came back to discussion on models.
The EURO seems to have burped up storms.
Several to be exact.

And it seems to be totally ignoring the SAL.
Maybe not totally. Doesn't roll a hurricane off the coast of Africa.
Note SAL below.
King SAL.

It covers part of Europe and the Mediterranean.
And it is giving everyone great sunsets in the Caribbean.
South Florida... 

Speaking of South FL
The EURO forms an Emily2 in the same spot.
You know when you are hot you are hot!

Pretty sure NHC isn't biting this time.
But stay tuned.
Crosses Florida and does the coastal dance.
Yes... more rain for Florida. 

Mike refers to this correctly on Spaghetti Models.
Gulf Blob Watch. True Enough...

Meanwhile the EURO delivers a storm.
From the wave rolling off of Africa soon.

WHOAH it develops another one.
Forms by the Yucatan and moves West.
You know the sacrificial BOC rite of the Hurricane Season.
Oh it's whatever wave/storm moves into the Islands.

And slams directly into Hispaniola!

Stay tuned to tomorrow's run of ...
How the world turns according to the EURO.
Apparently the EURO was programmed to wake up on 8/2

The GFS below
Also shows the GOM low.

And also shows a developed storm MDR
Headed for the Islands.
Maybe a bit North of the Islands.
Hint of something in BOC 

Oh eventually the GFS hits Long Island....

All these images are from
And they can also be viewed on

Understand that long range modeling and forecasting of development can often be garbage in ...garbage out. Each model run shows something different usually, but we watch the patterns. Convection is shown, low pressure forms, the high builds, the high contracts and sometimes a low closes off. It's a game of sorts or a way to try to understand the tropical universe. Much like a day at the beach. You go and stare at the view ...the blue sky, the blue ocean and the white cap waves in between. People setting up for the day. Some sit, some suntan and some go swimming. Some walk along the beach pretending to be sandpipers following the shoreline. Others watch from the pier up above looking down below. Watching waves, thinking on life and feeling the breeze. Usually in Carolina the beach delivers the breeze, even on a warm day there's a cool breeze and the sense of total happiness. 

Each day a new wave rolls off of Africa with a little more support from the models than the ones that went before. The models know climo and have more data programmed into them than you can imagine. And with all of that programming they still get it wrong more often than not this time of year. But, the big money is on consistency and if continual model runs show development than the ante is upped by the NHC that prefers the Euro to the GFS ....though it does give some credit to the GFS obviously. Oh ...the CMC shows a storm headed up and over the islands on it's way to you know where. A beach Canadians love in Florida. But then it can miss Florida and cruise up the coast or...

So many possibilities out there today. 

I didn't make them up. The EURO woke up. Sort of that simple. So while you sleep know the EURO is contemplating the tropics and watching the waves for you. And, I'll be here trying to make some sense of it all. As always once you have a closed low with recon information put into the computers the models are more like healthy food in... better product out!

For now there is another yellow area off of Africa and again do not shoot the messenger if this wave fizzles out like the ones before it. I'm just showing you what all the fuss is about and why there is something to talk about again in the tropics. Note Miami will get more rain tomorrow from the GOM Blob as it moves towards Florida. If you don't have a hurricane plan... seems like you aren't gonna get one. If the flood on Tuesday didn't convince you nothing will. 

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The Wave below over Africa still....

Yeah time to start playing that song...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
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