Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Tropics Today 30% Yellow. A Week From Now Might Have Real Trouble. Models. Discussion. A Look Back at July 2012 and SAL Killing Off Waves... and Hurricane Sandy.

Going to do a quick over view of the Atlantic Tropical Basin this morning before going into any other matters. We have a yellow 30% circle over the Atlantic. It's not really important to show it as you know what it looks like ... it's a yellow long swatch. It's closer to Africa than the Islands and the NHC has added in spaced out yawns in their discussion showing their less than stellar enthusiasm. But I do feel it's a good spot to put the yellow swatch across an area that has potential to soon produce a tropical entity. When I say entity I mean something with designation. Maybe it will produce an Invest (first step in the process where we "investigate" a wave officially) or even a tropical depression. Definitely a "tropical disturbance" meaning more than a wave, but less than a tropical storm. And it's not impossible to see a Tropical Storm develop from a series of new waves that are currently rolling off of Africa. It's also likely it gives it up to SAL which is still the villain or the hero of the Atlantic depending on your perspective. Think of SAL as Sheriff Sam trying to lock up westbound waves before they can cause any real trouble.

I'm going to put up the discussion rather than the graphics as the discussion says more. So at 2 AM the discussion said this about that yellow area:

Compare and contrast that with the 8 AM discussion below:

Subtle differences.
Beven speaks on specifics in the 2 AM
Avila gives a vague view at 8 AM.

My thought on this wave is that it is moving extremely slow. Five to Ten miles per hour forward speed is slow enough for it to tweet and blog while lumbering along. There's even time to edit the blog at that slow speed. The wave behind it may come off faster and over take this wave, absorbing part of it's moisture and it's something to think on as it exists Africa and jumps into the Atlantic Ocean. You can see the trio of waves over Africa in the map below. I will say this about the models and nothing more; some models do a better job of developing the wave over Africa and keeps it alive further down the line. The models that loved this wave a few days ago have backed off so far except for the CMC that does still love this wave. The Euro develops a wave in more than a week's time. Which wave exactly of the Trio over Africa is the wave that pops is the question?

Again the map below shows the Atlantic.
The waves over Africa.
The Highs and the Lows.
All the features you need to know about.

I'm showing this map above as it always starts with a map. Once something is put onto a map it exists. It is no longer a tree in the forest that no one saw fall and no one tripped over.  This image is near the top on for a reason. It's a pirates map of possible treasure. It shows where the Lows are and the vertical lines near the ITCZ are in fact the placement of actual waves. It also shows the High pressure that the waves (areas of weak low pressure) often stay away from as they travel west. And it also shows the track any storm would take currently should it be introduced onto the map.  Notice the multiple Lows about to depart Africa. Some are a bit higher than others.

The true Cabo Verde season begins when the waves depart Africa around a beach at Dakar. Climotologically speaking that is where we want them to roll off however in June and July they come off lower. Despite how beautiful they look they are less likely to develop and if they have minimal development they will go where Bret and Don went before them. And most of the best waves crash onto the beaches of South America. To get to North America you need them to come off higher and for frontal boundaries to start moving across the higher latitudes. For example, this week a stronger than usual cold front is forecast to move down across the SE providing huge relief from the constant summer heat. A cold front in late July? It happens sometimes and it does provide relief temperature wise but after the first cold front dips you will notice the tropical waves begin to lift off the monsoon trof faster and in doing so they pick up some spin and begin to move WNW vs just west towards South America. Nuff said. I'll show some maps regarding the cold front later in this blog with regard to a Low that could form off the Carolinas.

The best way to look at the wave in the East Atlantic is really by way of the Saharan Dust Layer image as it shows up nicely trapped there somewhat surrounded on three sides by SAL.

You can see it has some low level or mid level spin.
It actually looks better than I expected.
The yawns from the NHC have been loud.
If it was snoring they'd need breathing masks.
This is actually a lower level of SAL than before.
At the end of the blog I'll post links worth reading.
SAL happens in July all the time.
Sometimes more, sometimes less.
It portends a few things for later in the season.

Still a long way to go.
The graph below shows the wind flow around the wave.

The wave behind this one is being watched closely.
Models like the next wave. Forecasters like the next wave.

Keep that in mind.


wv-animated.gif (720×480)

The spin is from an ULL in the GOM.
There is convection there but nothing expected to develop.
In the upper right is a an area of convection off FL.
There is also an ULL in the Bahamas visible on the WV Loop.
Below is the Funk Top loop.
Shows strong cells of convection better so I'm using it.
Also you can check back over time and watch the front.
Also notice the huge red blob in the Midwest.
There is flash flooding going on now.
And this problem will continue all day.

Notice this is the second front dipping down.
At the tail end of the previous front is an area of spin.
Cradled there off the coast.
Let's look at the radar image.
This is from St. Marys Georgia.
One of my favorite "safe places" to go to breathe.

This is an area that normally we would watch for some sort of development. However if that new cold front is as strong as the models say it is then it will scoop this up and take it out to sea. Stay tuned and as always watch what happens to see if the forecast verifies. On Spaghetti Models you can watch this happen on the following two grids.

The Caribbean is quiet with it's normal daily showers.
The Northern Central Atlantic has it's resident ULL 

Currently there is no pulse in the Atlantic.
Lots of convection and some lowered pressure.
But no real closed center. No pulse.

With regard to the cold front models show it on the move.

The front gets that far South.
Then it stalls out and goes Stationary.
Remember during this same time the wave is crawling west.

And note there is eventually a LOW off the Carolinas.
The image below is for August 1st.

Our wave watcher above DaBuh is closely watching that area.

Below is a Flash Flood Warning for Overland Park.
I know that area well my son did an internship there.
Nice people, good community.
Hope they know about the early morning warnings.

Lastly I want to mention the heavy rainfall in Florida so far this summer. Also the extreme high heat. Three inches of rain in an hour is nothing for Miami but in places such as inland Alabama that had flooding yesterday it can be devastating. But Miami is flat and the water flows into the ground through the coral rock into the Biscayne Aquifer below. Three inches of rain in an area with creeks and elevation can be a disaster and create Flash Flooding requiring water rescues.

Normally when you have such extreme heat (strong high) and higher than normal rain totals South Florida is being set up for a hurricane or tropical storm later in the hurricane season. Most often this occurs with a storm coming in from the South as early cold fronts can attract wandering tropical entities that moved west around a strong High into some part of the Caribbean and then gets swept up towards Florida and beyond. For example let me mention Hurricane Sandy to remind people what most people have forgotten. Hurricane Sandy affected Jamaica and Cuba way before it took aim on on New York Harbor. So check back often at Hurricane Harbor here (not the amusement part) and get your daily feed of tropical information. History tidbit here is 2012 was an extremely HOT year and the summer in many areas was unbearable. What we in Florida call Hurricane Weather....

Actually long range models did show Sandy making it to the NE but where was the question and many laughed at that idea. No one laughs when you say Hurricane Sandy anymore.

Cuban discussion of Sandy is below:

Note what I wrote about Sandy at that point in time.
"Hurricane Sandy will be Hurricane Sandy... that is the bottom line..."

Then post game discussion. Lastly I want to mention that there was a huge outbreak of SAL that summer. I talked about it in July of 2012. Storm chasers were discouraged in 2012 early on because of the strong SAL that was killing off the waves. Mother Nature had the last laugh. So remember that before writing off this particular hurricane season.

Okay so with that in mind we know what song we will play.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.
And join in the discussion.
Thanks for all the interesting hurricane memories yesterday.
What hurricane was your first hurricane?

Ps Extra credit for anyone who made it down here.
Is she adorable?
Not cause she's my granddaughter but...
...because look at that attitude!
She's in LA and ready to go swimming!!

If Victoria's Secrets had a site for children.
She'd definitely be the best model ;)
Pink beach shoes and all.
And she loves their perfume.

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