Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, July 23, 2017

Atlantic Slow. Tropical Rant In Search of Extraordinary VS Mediocre Pseudo Tropical Storms.

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The lesson learned from today's blog is the following.
We need cold fronts.

You have to get some fronts dipping down...
The set up needs to change.
Otherwise Africa's best waves keep making Epac Storms.
And Epac storms are fish storms mostly.
Let's not pretend FERNANDA is hitting HAWAII as a CANE.
Just saying.
You can't have a good tango without a dip.
I'm also a dancer... remember 

42 seconds in if you are impatient.
Lord knows I'm impatient.
I'm not into mediocre.
And to be honest Cindy and Don were mediocre.
Mother Nature did save us from having Hilary and Don tho... thank you Mother Nature.

As for the discussion on ACE.
I'm not into it.
I don't care about the ACE numbers.
Obviously the four named storms in the Atlantic were crap storms.
We call them crap storms when they didn't do much.
Well they did validate the NHC use of models.
And the models did call for "development" 
If you can call Don or Cindy "development"
Fine we had four storms.
A friend called Don a  "pseudo storm" I like that.

I want a real hurricane.
Bottom line.
Everyone wants something.
I want a real hurricane in the Atlantic.

Yes the EPAC is smoking hot. That will end soon. And again they got some of our best CV waves. About a month ago everyone was whining it was slow there. People were waxing academic on the slow start to the EPAC season and how the Atlantic was way ahead of the EPAC as if this was some sort of game. I'm not into numbers 10/7/4 because numbers can be manipulated. Obviously we had Cindy and that was manipulation of numbers and over reliance on models of a system forming close in. Don was not much more than a dot westbound. TD4 looked way better than Don the Dot but TD4 was not knocking at the door to the islands so it remained TD4 even though it looked way better than Cindy ever did. I'm not even talking on the A storm way back when. 

Loop this loop and watch the process that allows African waves to seed the EPAC with named storms. The lost to SAL was a win in the long run as the EPAC has no SAL.

Larry Cosgrove is a friend and one of the best meteorologists I know and I know the best. He's been brutally honest in his forecast on the lack of tropical development in the Atlantic.  He's a voice I cannot ignore as much as I would love to... And I'll add in it my own thoughts it ispossible something close in develops if it gets into the right spot. Something better than Cindy but not Don the Dot. And he is being more harsh than Jim from Hurricane City (another really close friend who I have learned much from and I'm not just talking tropics) in that Larry can't even say we will have anything real to track through August. You can subscribe to his forecasts online. Years back, oh my gosh decades back Larry would call for cyclogenesis and other mets would make fun of him only to see it play out just as Larry said it would. And what I love about Larry most (besides his music) is his understanding of how the globe works weather wise. Geographic knowledge combined with meteorological and well just on all levels .. Larry knows his stuff. Part of his stuff is music and y'all know how much I love music.

I'm posting a sample below of what he recently wrote. Note the reason we should worry on this is not because 1992 was a slow hurricane season, but because the large, huge ridge allowed for the Katrina, Betsy and Andrew sort of double landfall scenario set up. Throw in Hurricane Georges that kept moving WNW despite every NHC discussion that it would soon make the turn...

This is the mean season gang.
It's hot and only getting hotter.
It was 85 degrees at 1 AM last night.

Only a weather person uses Snapchat as a thermometer

Heat index was off the charts as well last night.

The mean season brings out the meanies in people.
In Miami .. okay Hialeah someone shot at FPL trucks.
He was upset they were parked so long in front of his house.
So he shot out the tires.
As my daughter said "that ain't gonna help his situation"

His excuse was he went bananas.
My brother gets that way when he goes to the Subway in Hialeah.
But I digress.
Because Miami...


Enjoying this ramble?
Hope so cause if not now when?

One day it's hot...
..and soon it will not be hot.
Seasons... First EPAC
Then Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As for the EPAC feed more by African Waves than Columbian monsoonal convection it was a slow start and then it went bonkers as if it was on steroids. And this too shall pass. Everything has it's season. In Miami we have tourist seasons, mango season, football season and hurricane season. Those are our four seasons. In Raleigh we have Pumpkin Spice Latte Season, It's never gonna snow season, hot as hell season and "wow the dogwood is in bloom" season. What are your seasons? The EPAC it lit up today like the sun when it's busy and then the sun goes quiet. This is my "I"m impatient sick of stupid, pseudo tropical storms and football is too far away for my liking and it's way too hot to go outside and I can't find a good bold, gel 1.6 pen the way I used to be able to do and yes it makes a difference season. This is my blog and I can do long run on sentences and be brutally honest because if not now when? As an old friend on AOL used to say "I don't give a rat's ass" unless it's a real hurricane with an eye.

I want a hurricane.
A real hurricane.
Don't go all "hurricanes are bad" on me.
It can swerve away fast if you are peace loving.
I'm an Earth Science person.
I like hurricanes.
It's why my blog is not called:
"Growing tomatoes in my backyard in Raleigh"
It's called Hurricane Harbor for a reason.

So what is the answer here?
We need frontal boundaries dipping down.
Not racing East as the Epac races West.
We need to mix it up for many meteorological reasons.

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Dip stupid front DIP!
As for the ULL situation I am so over that!

So what's the answer?

1. To put a halt to the heat ridge creating misery across the Eastern Half of the country.
2. To flip the switch on the tropics into "ON" to have something to track, study and chase.
3. If you hate hurricanes carry on and root for the ridge..go for it. Enjoy the heat.
4. Go back up and read what Larry said on 1992 and think twice on loving that ridge.
5. If you are doing futures know the crops are taking a beating from the heat. 
6. Today's blog post is brought to you from someone who has had enough of nothing.
7. I didn't trash my friends at the NHC because I'm respectful and holding back (for now).
8. I need a 500 MB heights obviously.......  Larry gets that. :(

Extra credit points for why #7 above.
Nice tropical waves get no mention w/o model support.
And so far the models have sucked if you ask me.
Despite mention here the NHC won't mention them.
Except on the discussion no one reads.
Well i do but you know that don't you?

I've never been a real summer girl in retrospect. I don't tan, I just burn and then the burn fades away. I did get serious sun poisoning once with my cousin at a hotel on Miami Beach when we eluded my grandmother and spent the whole day in the pool and the ocean. After the invention of AC most Miami kids hibernate in malls, movie theaters and take trips up to the mountains of NC to evade the summer heat. Even long summer trips to relatives in NY is worth getting out of town. We wear shorts and sandals all the time so waiting for the summer to put on "summer clothes" is not something we care about and pool parties at friends houses usually involved throwing each other into the pool and then going into the Florida Room inside to stay cool. Note FPL makes a fricking fortune from the electric bill it takes to live on life support in Miami in July and August. And not to beat a dead horse but rather than fix their poles they wait til the poles fall down in relatively minor hurricanes and then raise the rates because it cost so much to fix them. Sorry FPL friends but being honest, I'm in a mood. 

In NC summer means you can go barefoot outside, if you want to go outside. Everything is green again as all the flowers have died from the heat. If you slept late your tomatoes have died on your backyard plants which is why it's worth the extra money to shop at Whole Foods. Also I may add Whole Foods keeps the AC really COLD so you can lower yours while away some money and enjoy the quality coffee and let them clean up after you eat lunch. I'm not much of a farmer. I grew up in LA in the 80s according to Facebook (probably true in ways) and I've been an actor, a dancer and worked on political campaigns since I was five and I'm a writer who refuses to spell check this morning and refuses to lie to you.

1. We have good waves that in the old days would at least be mentioned on tropical updates. Especially as they have made it intact across the dry, Atlantic and washed up onto the shores of South America and then went into the Carib only to form in the EPAC where SAL does not exist.

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But this year clusters of convection are named TS..
..rather than Subtropical Cyclones.
I'm being kind.

But the day will come when the EPAC gets quiet.
( i know upwelling......rolling eyes)

And the Atlantic will come to life.
If the SAL is gone...
..and the High is not gone.
The huge double barreled high.....
1992 might indeed be something to worry on.

Fronts will form just enough to pull the waves WNW.
And you know what that means.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps will leave this here for Jim W.
If he is still reading and grinning.

One of the best...  he was truly extraordinary and left a legacy of video online.

Must be something about the name Jim ;)

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