Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

updated...Remnants of TD4 Drench South Florida....Why Are the Tropical Models Doing A Poor Job? Where Did TD4 Go and Who Is Getting It's Leftovers This Week? Mean Season Is July, Lean Days in the Tropics. Only Hurricane is in the News.. Thank You Washington Post


Brief update this morning.
Short for time and will write long later.
But this blog post below is important and timely.

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Above is one view of the enhanced rainfall over FL
WV Loop below

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Much rain in Miami yesterday.
More rain on the way.
But it's just another day... a tropical paradise.
Briefly in the flow of tropical moisture.
A lot of moisture.

Totals posted by Phil Ferro of WSVN Miami.
He's covering this mess well.

Check him out it's in his backyard.

It is from the remnants.

There is an area being watched in Atlantic.
But the SAL is there as we know... so...
Yeah, let' keep watching the SAL for now.

Circulation Remnants down in the Florida Straits
More a sort of disturbance in the force...
Ill update later.
Please keep reading.
I've got things I must do this morning ...
..Be back later, 

* * *

NHC says nothing devleoping.
New wave watches old low riding wave approaching Trinidad again.
No model support, no yellow circle from NHC.
Convection in BOC without model support so nada there.
What looks like a wave in the Atlantic is an ULL .

As for XTD4 and it's remnants moving towards Miami.
More rain is on the way. Enhanced rain let's say.

SAL has got Mike from Spaghetti Models singing the blues :(

This song reminds me a bit of the tropics in July. The milk's gone sour....  And, you really got to wonder what the A Team of models are doing when they show hurricanes forming and making landfalls everywhere and then nothing happens. Something makes no sense. Either the models are doing a bad job or they are missing something that happened that didn't seem like it would happen. Maybe there is too much model reliance in forecasting tropical development these days. Yes, I use them and as a friend said online it's kind of unpatriotic to ignore the GFS (American Model) but the Euro isn't doing all that well either. That leaves us with two questions.

What is wrong with the models?
Why do we rely on them so much?

Short of conspiracy weather theories the models believed the set up was there for tropical development. They were wrong on forward speed of the wave that crawled across the Atlantic after putting anchor down midway battling shear and SAL and it didn't develop. Neither did the wave behind it develop as early modeling showed two storms in the Atlantic. Actually the second wave was shown to go barreling through the Caribbean. I don't see any hurricane down there though a tropical wave is flaring up and being ignored by NHC. (It's in the same spot some models put it but then models stopped showing it so NHC dropped it)  Remnants of XTD4 are crawling still towards Florida and Cuba and may make it into the Gulf of Mexico. The huge Upper Level Low with it's adjacent wind shear and dry air is still harassing it looking more like a Great Black Hurricane than an ULL. The ULL has more moisture wrapped in it than does XTD4.

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And where will the face in the ULL go next?
Or will it simply disappear exhausted like XTD4?

Remember the old movie Fahrenheit 451?
Well it was a book first but I digress.

Perhaps the models should be tracking Upper Level Lows?
Add in some better SAL forecasts might help.
What are the models missing?

So let's flip this to explain this that thought above.

Pretend the tropical wave has dust in it and pretend Saharan Dust and the ULL are actually now vacuum cleaners that suck up moisture from the tropical waves rather than sucking up dust. They do the opposite in a homeopathic way such as vaccines. They are the moisture suckers of the tropics winning the war against tropical development.



And what SAL doesn't get the ULL finishes up.

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Bottom line here is yes I show the models. People ask me to show the models and they ask what I think on the models. The models are out there in the public domain so everyone can see the models. I don't want to be all BREXIT like and say we need to get rid of the GFS (which is on borrowed time as we turn to the Para GFS) but it's been worse now than it was before. The Euro is usually Top Gun here and yet even the Euro has been off. Viva El Euro! 

I'm the original water vapor loop girl and I'd rather watch a wave on the water vapor loop than stare at models that change drastically so fast that if they were in a class I taught they'd be in detention often. Will the new upgrade do a better job? Stay tuned. 

Again the tropical world has flipped and we spend more time running models and watching model forecasts than we do watching the actual state of the tropics via satellite imagery. And the better the imagery gets (and it's getting really good) the less people watch what is here today while trying to see what the computers say might be in ten days time. And, maybe if meteorologists were paid what they should be paid then computer genius types would go into meteorology vs taking jobs at Amazon where they can pay their bills, pay off college and watch the tropics from far away in Seattle. 

You get what you pay for in this world. Garbage in and you get garbage out. Just saying.

In truth it's just another day in Paradise and people like Jim Williams (the world's largest skeptic ..he's probably going to disagree with that one) only expects real development once August begins. July is the Dog Days of Tropical Meteorology usually when mets so bored from watching "nothing in the tropics" they spend their time writing articles on the possible sale of the Miami Marlins. It's a Miami thing...  July is usually the "Mean Season" not prime time as the models have been forecasting without much luck. And it's wrong and silly to totally count out the models but they aren't doing a great job. And, let's not say the validation of Cindy by the NHC didn't really make it the great tropical event it was forecast to be by the models. 

These days the only usage of the word Hurricane is in political headlines....

Washington Post knows the word Hurricane sells.

Why do we use the models? We paid a lot of money for them. We are still way better off with them than without them. But, it's worth remembering that the models are at their best when there is a verified, closed low pressure system and they have information obtained from Recon to put into each model run. Then the models shine, however we have a long way to go before we can rely on them totally for forecasting of tropical development. And, if they get the forward speed wrong they blow the timing and when they blow the timing the output is wrong. Timing is intricately related to intensity forecasting so gotta fix that before we can really bet the farm on the models. 

It's July, it's hot and the models are not! Stay tuned August will be here soon and July may have a surprise ending that wasn't originally in the script. Especially if we can lock up the Upper Level Low in the Atlantic and find some home grown action that sneaks in under the radar.

Til then the only good weather scenes will be in the movies.

Keep watching, keep reading.
Besos BobbiStorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Good explanation as to what happened to TD4

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