UPDATED AT 5 PM - Moving West FAST at 23 MPH. TD4 A Strong Tropical Depression Moving WNW in the Danger Zone from Shear and Then What? It Fought off SAL so Can it Fight OFF Shear too? And Where Does It End Up and HOW Close to SE US Will It Get in the LONG RUN

What's changed since 11 AM?

11 AM on LEFT.. 5 PM on Right.

First off it didn't follow the forecast.

TD4 sped up and went due West.

Actually small drop S of due West.

But that's splitting hairs.

As many have predicted....

..as a weak TD it would go West. 

Duh....

By doing so "it" stays South of previous forecast points.

13.1 N

Lost most of it's show off convection from last night.

Still there following the area of moisture I pointed out earlier.

Moving West with the flow... 

Small systems often do their own thing.

As I said it was running into a Danger Zone.

Advisory below.

Cone below. 

IF TD4 is there at 11 PM the cone may go further South.

Just some squally weather for now.

Models oddly kill it off and yet....

...show intensifying possibilities after 110 hours.

Which is it?

Keep watching.

The fact that you are following advisories in early July is BIG.

So keep that in mind as we have become used to it this year.

Good solid discussion on TD4

"updated track forecast is nudged southward"

Bugs me a little that people on line see this as a black and white drama. They are looking for headlines and click bait on Twitter and ways to keep people interested. It's not so black and white. For one TD4 should not have survived past the huge blasts of SAL it was hit with days ago. It came off Africa with mediocre spin and not a huge moisture envelope yet models latched onto it and did a good job actually of sniffing out it's ability to stay alive. To stay alive for a CV Wave in late June is almost laughable. To have a TD before 40 West in the 1st week of July is a big indication that the waves behind TD4 are viable in the same way Bret was able to get across the pond. More to come, news at 11 as they say and they will be saying a lot about the next few waves. Rumors of the return of the MJO are out there already. TWC teased everyone with very long range models for the next wave. They didn't show the whole loop as that would scare the daylight out of most people in South Florida so let's not scare everyone just yet. Remember the GFS wanted to scare South Florida before and it will do it again and again before November of 2017.

I don't like to get into long range models other than to give you a heads up that they develop a wave coming off of Africa. Some keep it low and take it into the Islands... which is logical. Often they show Lows popping up, fading away and showing up again. Too inconsistent and not worth talking about other than to say the pattern is set and waves leaving Africa we would normally laugh at in July are being taken seriously. 

TD4 is in danger of being written off the soap opera...

It's got dry air to the N, E and West. 

It's pushing the dry air to it's West to the West.

To the South if has a pocket of moisture.

That's what's keeping it going...

The ULL has been there way too long...

...is still there creating shear.

The convection in front of TD4 is trying to block for it.

In football terms, it's acting like a blocker.

Probably too little too late but good try!

Good running backs work in teams.

1972 Dolphins were a once in a life time team.

Much like Andrew and 1926 Cane take their place in history.

No one expected this wave to get this far... 

...every storm runs out of rain.

It's existence will be remembered.

Looks like it can't win but it's trying...

So keep watching.

And be appreciative that there IS something to watch in July.

Keep it in perspective.

THIS IS THE STORY... 2017 is a season forecast to be busier than usual. 

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20170706/NEWS06/912314316/Colorado-State-University-forecasters-up-Atlantic-hurricane-prediction

I find it fascinating.

Not in what it does but what it didn't do.

This is pretty much Pre Season in the Tropics.

Expect August to be very busy.

That's the take away today!

If you'd like some good reading here's the newest update on the 2017 Hurricane Season from CSU continuing the legacy of Bill Gray who passed away and is very missed. Incredible man really.

http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/07/2017-07.pdf

The difference between me and many online?

I never expected this to be a FISH storm ..

..I wasn't sure it would get designation.

But I did expect it to keep moving West.

Staying low and weak.

In doing so it still could be a problem later.

I just didn't expect it to move sooo slow!

And then speed up SO fast!!

But I'm not surprised they had to pull the cone South.

Keep reading if you did not do so earlier.

I'll update as needed.

@BobbiStorm on Twitter for thoughts in real time.

* * * 

NHC is issuing advisories on TD 4

Please refer to the NRL visible image below.

Many believe it is at TS status currently.

Nice structure and outflow.

Bit of bands there coming out of an intense CDO ish center.

Going to the site below found on www.spaghettimodels.com

We see strong winds on the NE side of the center of TD4

Winds far higher than the advisory states.

It has a closed circulation.

Therefore logically it could become TS Don.

Even being a TD in July is impressive.

But it is not. NHC makes that call not me.

From far away it's hard to see TD4

So we zoom in and "Oh there it is!"

Stronger than 30 MPH and just below TS status.

And that's a rough point the mouse result I showed.

Even closer we see it's center.

Now let's loop a bit.

Long loops show the progression of the storm.

They also show evolution of steering currents.

ULL is not only teasing TD4

It's stimulating convection West of TD4 near the islands.

Oh and TD4 looks to have outflow.

Before and After comparison below:

Current image on the right is very different from before on left.

Somethings going on there.

We can see the sun rising over TD4

Look what it reveals.

Not simply a dot nor a blob.

Let's go even wider once again.

Bottom Line without recon going in there is no upgrade.

Well unless an eye pops out and that's not likely.

Note the convection that blows up WSW of TD4

Shear being shot down at it as we speak.

Real life weather game in progress

So going to discuss this a bit using other news stories currently trending. Amelia Earhart is in the news again way after she crashed and died. Talk about coming back to life in a way... as the History Channel has a special on her showing new evidence (imagery) of her existence after her plane crashed to prove the story many of us have always learned. Speculation was always there and back when I was in AP History  we spent hours discussing every possibility in history and the general belief was always that she crashed in a dangerous part of the Pacific and was either held prisoner, executed as a spy or simply died from her wounds. It was always a possibility .... but now a new found image has surfaced leading many to believe this is proof she survived the crash. It's not proof positive but it can be used to prove the speculation. It's a mystery still and people love historical mysteries.  As she flew out of Miami it has always been a "Miami story" of sorts by way of linkage and civic pride. TWC is advertising the History Channel episode with all the details while covering TD4. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amelia_Earhart#Speculation_on_disappearance

More than the hugeness of her trip was the dangerous time she lived in. It was a different world. There was no satellite imagery nor the various forms of search and rescue then as there is now and to be frank there was a war beginning and she was in the wrong spot at the wrong time.  Hurricane Recon actually emerged out of WW2 when more troops were dying from Typhoons than actual combat. To combat this problem planes began to do recon of storms so that they could stay one step ahead of the storms and be informed. Sort of like being #HurricaneStrong. 

When a strong tropical depression is way out at sea in the middle of nowhere with no islands in it's path and only ships at sea the NHC can afford to wait and see if it survives the battle with shear. If they think it might they can introduce the possibility and then six hours later if it has survived and thrived they can upgrade to Tropical Storm Don and blame it on the ever changing weather and it's associated steering currents. Add in ever changing models that often change from run to run in real time. You can find the shear maps above and the current model image and well we might just go Spaghetti Models with this one if it stays alive but weak and ends up further SW of it's earlier forecast position. 

If it stays alive and gets past say 55 West the NHC can send recon into TD4 and see whether or not it's Don or not. We can also send the Gulfstream Jet in to see how strong the shear is or not. It may not survive the battle with shear ... as always time will tell.

Til then we watch and wait and as Mike says ...it sure sounds like it's quacking. Maybe it's a decoy pretend duck? Whatever it is or isn't it's far from the Gulf of Mexico and it looks way better than Tropical Storm Cindy did when it was named. It's kind of like Real Estate and often all about location. Out in the middle of the ocean not threatening anything and being monitored vs having to hoist watches and warnings for highly populated centers. I get it. A look back at Tropical Storm Cindy below. I really hope in post game analysis Cindy is labeled a Subtropical but I digress.

TS Cindy above as shown on my blog weeks ago.

TD4 below this morning.

Yeah and add in the wide view below of TD4

I get it ...far from watches and warnings.

Far from recon though moving closer.

Watches and warnings posted for TS Cindy below.

So since we are talking location.

As Jim said to me yesterday around lunchtime.

A weaker system stays South.

And that's the point.

THIS is the problem with TD4.

It's not about whether it's Don now or just a TD now.

It's about LATER and where it's going.

As a strong TS or small Cat 1 Cane it would get pulled North.

Fish Storm is in it's future if it was a hurricane.

Might still be a fish, time will tell.

If it stays weak battling shear as it limps WNW or NW.

The location becomes a bigger problem.

My thoughts in purple writing.

I'd rather have a TS Don at 45 West...

...than an Invest at 73 West heading WNW.

Stay tuned.

I'll update later today as needed.

The NHC makes the call.

It's really not about what it is now...

...but where it is later.

And we've seen it's tenacity so far..

If SAL didn't kill it off maybe shear will.

But unless it's killed off completely.

As in dead and buried.

It can be a problem later on ...

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm for faster updates.

Ps And I appreciate everyone's thoughts from Mike at www.spaghettimodels.com to everyone else who kept me up last night way after we said we were going to bed because it was intriguing to watch a Tropical Depression form in the first week in July. 2017 IS a busy season so we can drop the pretense on that one. Will it be a season filled with wishy washy hurricanes or huge Category 4 Storms? Will it be a year where storms form... fall apart and regenerate? Time will tell. I'm here and I'll be updating in real time so follow me here or give me your thoughts on Twitter. As always the NHC makes the call even when we give our thoughts as we shoot the tropical breeze.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/?fref=nf

PS... SMALL systems are prone to their own unique pros and cons.

They spin up fast, fall apart and spin up fast again.

Satellite imagery has a problem grasping them well.

Models don't handle them well.

They sometimes can battle shear better than a BIG storm.

Don't get lost in the name game.

The real drama may be down the tropical road.

Either way a strong TD in early JULY is impressive.

And there are more waves where that one came from..

As my friend DaDaBuh likes to sing.. Boom Boom Boom.

Boom Chicka Boom .... 

https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh

Waves over Africa moving West going where Bret and TD 4 went before

Will TD 4 survive the Danger Zone?