Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, July 09, 2017

NHC Posts 20% Yellow Area Off of Africa For West Bound Tropical Wave. More Waves to Follow..

The much anticipated Yellow Circle 20% is up.
Yes, this is the one the models have been developing.
Long range models taking it to the Caribbean.
Some models taking it to the East Coast ..
Let's stick with the models 3 days out at first.

Mother Nature annoyed that the NHC pulled the plug on it's favored tropical wave TD4 has some more tropical trouble for the forecasters at the NHC in Miami. We have huge, red, bowling balls being rolled off the coast of Africa this time...

Okay we've all had a bit of fun with this today.
NHC said "no way" and they meant it.

Next up African Waves a plenty in July.
There is also Saharan Dust a plenty.

The battle for control of the Tropical Atlantic Basin begins.

It is worth noting that these are long range models that are more like toys with some good information that needs to be discerned carefully as to what patterns may exist down the tropical line for the new wave off of Africa. Models are good with figuring out precipitation and isobars, low pressure, high pressure but not so good with predicting blasts of SAL. Shear forecasts are iffy at best several days out. And, there is no solid center there so the models are really doing nothing more than shooting the breeze 10 days out. Look at the early part and avoid wile speculation on a week down the road. And, remember these are the same models that brought you TD4 as a closed cyclone. 

You can find these models on the top left of Spaghetti Models.
They are from Levi Cowan of

Do not see these as set in stone tracks as much as ideas tossed about at a board meeting.

First stop the Islands.

Hispaniola doesn't break it's stride...

Flirts with Florida above...
Moves North instead to Charleston area.

Of course has to see DC and NYC

The Euro below shows a Low getting into the GOM.
Large high. Doesn't see the big storm the GFS does.
No surprise there......
Most meteorologists prefer the EURO being on board.

What we know for sure...
The NHC believes it has a chance to develop.
They highlighted the area with the yellow hot dog.
And time will tell.

Links below...

The Euro plays with the remnants of X but never really develops them. And, the Euro plays with the new wave as well. However it's the GFS that goes hog wild and hell bent on slamming a hurricane into the East coast after two landfalls in the Caribbean. And it's the GFS many are extremely skeptical of despite it's recent upgrade.

Feel free to play with them and check them out often. They change often especially in the long range which should be taken more as a possible suggestion. 

As for XTD4 that has been REMOVED from the Tropical Discussion altogether it is currently flaring up again as it does often at night. Mind you one thing it IS doing is juicing up the atmosphere out ahead of the new set of waves making the Atlantic a bit more hospitable for further development. XTD4 is like that teenager you ground and send to his room and every night he sneaks out of the house and parties.

BOC remains active with convection.
Another wave is crossing the Atlantic.
In theory there is more moisture in the atmosphere this time.
Time will tell.

I'll be back Monday with updates on models and the wave itself.
Trying to keep a clear head with a sense of humor for now.
Again the GFS was not reliable with the last wave.
So remember that when reading about Destruction in 10 days.
It's a nice plot line but it's going to get edited down quite a bit..
And look at those waves over Africa still to come off...

Stay tuned.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbibstorm on Twitter.
Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.

Ps Please read the blog post on the Miami Hurricanes if you have not 
And THANK YOU all for being incredible.

And if you live in Miami please go to the Historical Museum for their new event on Hurricane Andrew 25 years later.

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