Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, August 04, 2017

UPDATED! Invests 90L 99L and the Models. What to Believe? What to Think? People Like Clarity. Words Matter..

Not much to update. 
NHC kept chances the same at 2 PM.

99L Models came in lower today.

It's worth noting the GFS is no longer taking it to New England.
It took it recently into the GOM towards Nola.
Seems it can't make up it's mind where to go ...
Really pathetic ... GFS upgraded doesn't seem any better.

The Caribbean area favored by the EURO 
90L is shown below.

The one common thread is a trend to the left.
Further South...further West.

Maybe tomorrow they will pull further North.
Long range models are just daily shots in the dark.

Hard to understand how our two best models can come to such different conclusions in that one develops 99L and the other develops 90L. 

I mean in theory one is really off this time and with all the money and energy put into these models it's a total disconnect that they won't disagree on anything. I guess much like our political situation in that there is a lot of diversity in opinion on politics. Two camps, a nation kind of divided. Okay perhaps the CMC is like the Libertarian party, but I digress. Just hard to wrap my head around the fact that they cannot even agree on which wave is the way most likely to develop into something. Be warned on Twitter and online there is a lot of FAKE WEATHER NEWS ;)

 99L is far out there and it's a big system with multiple centers vying for control over it's convective complex. 90L is forecast to develop down the road and if it does develop it will hit someone some where eventually as it's landlocked in the Caribbean. What is most odd is some models split 99L and take part of it North and take the other part into the GOM. If that don't beat all...  

Again garbage in get garbage out. And if the new GFS isn't much better than the old one we should change the way we do things and give it less weight. Time will tell on this one. 

IF 99L forms later, as indicated by the EURO, it may go into the Islands. In fact it's not beyond the realm of possibility that it won't follow the path of 90L in the Caribbean towards Central America or the Yucatan. IF it does develop faster than it could avoid the Islands and be of a concern for the Bahamas and Florida down the tropical road. Stay tuned... check back in often and mostly have a great weekend. Do not worry or obsess on models for a system that has not even formed. My bottom line.

I'm pretty sure today's blog is going to be a moving target as we watch westbound waves  moving across the tropical basin while weather people wait and watch each new model run. So let's look at Invest 90L and 99L on satellite imagery below.

Invest 99L can be seen above.
Also can be seen is another strong wave over Africa.

Above you can see a weak, broad wave in the Caribbean.
There are no hurricanes today.
There are no tropical storms today.

Up close and personal.

rb_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

The area that later over the Yucatan could be a problem.
It could be a problem sooner ...
...but the Yucatan was the goal line til recently.

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

99L seems to be moving faster than 15 MPH I believe.
Outrunning it's "floater"
They will move the "floater" to where they need it.
A well developed wave for now.

Mostly we have an Invest with confusing discussion.

This is one of the most confusing text explanations of what you see on the main NHC screen. I do have a degree in English (one of a few degrees) and despite my rare use or proper grammar here on the blog I try hard to convey clarity to my readers.

Let's take this apart. 

"A broad low pressure system" = not organized just broad low pressure.
"producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms" = convection in the tropics
"several hundred miles south and southwest of Cabo Verde" = so far away

Now watch this carefully:

"Environmental conditions are conducive for this system to consolidate and develop during the next few days"  =  holding pattern as it has a chance for development to come together (hasn't so far)

"and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while moving WNW at 15 mph" =

"early next week" = Sunday, Monday, Tuesday would be "early next week"

Here's the kicker
"Formation chances through 48 hours... medium...50%"

That would mean there are equal odds something can form in the next 48 hours as they would not much later or not at all. So according to the NHC there are 50% odds of something forming at 11 AM today or 5 PM or 5 AM tomorrow or maybe before I finish writing this morning's post. HOWEVER....the sentence before that said something is likely to form by early next week.

There is no clarity in that discussion, but they have definitively have covered their bases in case something changes and it forms. But it's really far, far away so stay tuned. 

I know you think I'm on a grammar rant but words matter. Words are important. And as for numbers and colors people forget that a named system can and has formed this year in an area under an orange circle with lower odds. 


Because how we convey things is important. And when there is so little clarity from the powers that be then people go online looking for more information. Some people online post and share possible long range solutions to Twitter or Facebook to discuss with their friends. Others post as "click bait" which means it's a teaser like "DRAMATIC FOOTAGE OF BLAZING FIRE ...LIVE AT FIVE..." to us older folks though trust me I get "click bait" really well. Possibly because I have younger kids that I had when I was a bit older and they have kept me young. I can't eat a really good meal without snapping a picture and sharing it with my younger son who is a huge foodie on Snapchat. If you see a link online that says to click and see what Marilyn Monroe would have looked like if she was alive today... do not click it's "click bait" 

The GFS long term coastal solutions are usually click bait in certain ways. They are for entertainment purposes only. And, I show them with my thoughts as they are out there in the public being passed about online. Just because the EURO is KING does not mean sometimes he might be wrong and it could temporarily lose his crown. 

The models are shown below. Again they are from and posted on the upper left of If you live in the Islands or in Florida or up in the Carolinas (that does include Georgia geographically) then you should be paying attention to the tropics in August. And, long term possible solutions bring 90L into either Central America or the GOM where it would make landfall anywhere from Mexico to __________________.

And IF the EURO is correct on 99L than it is just as possible that it will stay weak, move further west and it be where Invest 90L is today down the tropical road. 

The models do NOT make or KILL OFF storms. The models predict formation. Think Cleo telling your future on late night TV with a crystal ball and a turban. Sometimes she got it right... "you may be going through a difficult time in the near future" (APPLIES TO MOST OF US) however "good days are down the road" (ALSO APPLIES) and so the GFS is just predicting based on a computer program that 99L will develop. The EURO is predicting something may form NEAR THE YUCATAN from the wave now in the Caribbean known as Invest 90L.  Why they can't disagree is beyond me and shows how far we have to go before we get this whole modeling process down to perfection.

However there is low confidence this season in the way things are being done. As Emily developed in a few hours and was crowned with the name after being an orange circle that was placed over a cold front that dropped dramatically down into Florida. 

People are looking for clarity. People are getting model images online of landfalling storms in Charleston, Savannah, NY and New England. And the images change in real time. If you snooze you lose and if you shop too early the wave dies out and you are disgusted and you don't know what to believe next time.

People don't know what to believe is the problem here. They no longer trust anyone or they totally ignore everything until they hear their neighbor went shopping for Hurricane Harvey. As Bill Read, Ex Director of the NHC, once said to me with a smile at a program we were attending ...people are like sheep.  No one prepares until they see their neighbors prepare.  No one evacuates until they see their neighbor packing up the van to leave the neighborhood. 

I'll update this blog at the top later today to discuss the newest models and to see what 90L and 99L look like in real time. 

Thanks for reading and for your thoughts online.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Look at that house up above... can you imagine watching the rain from inside that house ;)

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At 7:22 AM, Anonymous aquak9 said...

(lurking) Thank you for today's blog; waiting (im)patiently for an update. Carry on-

At 4:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Glad you're continuing to expose the "fake" news perpetrated by the Weather channel geeks who are already trying to scare the "bageebees" out of everyone!


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