Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, August 12, 2017

99L to Become Gert Anytime Now ... Whenever Circulation Closes Off... African Waves & GFS VS EURO Again...

Saturday Night with Invest 99L
80% odds ... anytime now.
If only it closes off a circulation.
The loop below shows a nice circular system.
It's circular and its' spinning.
Worth noting forecast keeps this out to sea.
If the forecast is correct it's a Fish Storm.

So close to being upgraded.
Perhaps in the morning if the visible is impressive enough.
And someone finds a closed system.

Looks a bit like Antarctica doesn't it?

A close up look below.
Still making faces......

But the view below shows circulation not closed off.
Getting there. But circulation still a bit broad.

Wind shear where it is is low.
There is wind shear nearby that will keep it in check.
Well if it forms and it is forecast to be Gert.

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

The frontal boundary is nearby to the NW.
It's in a safe zone now to develop.
Can it do it?
Moisture in SW Carib.
ULL in GOM...

There's a field of tropical waves over Africa.
Looks like red and gold flowers.
Red sun flowers almost. 
All moving westbound.

The new improved GFS picks one to develop in under 7 days.
The Euro does not see what the GFS sees.
So this is the test of the upgrade.
We are curious to see how well the upgraded GFS does...
Basically a replay of 99L
Euro keeps it weak in the short term.
GFS ramps it up and develops it.
Worth noting both models.

Note both models for 8/21 below.
Very different scenarios.

New improved GFS...

Euro sees nothing.

Images are for same day in history.
Today... there are the players.
99L waiting on upgrade to Gert.
African Wave.
Some convection in SW Carib.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... IF only... a picture could tell a thousand words.
We are just looking for one right now.

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