Florida Trof.. Invest 99L & the ULL ... Caribbean Wave Flaring Up Near Where Franklin Began...Franklin Over Mexico Out of the Picture.

Today is a day to wait and watch.

A lot going on but much of it is subtle.

First off you can see Franklin exiting our world and moving rapidly towards the Eastern Pacific. The GOM is free of action today, although the Northern Gulf of Mexico coast shows continued convection creating localized flooding problems. To the immediate East of South Florida is a trough of low pressure that is moving NW along the coast of Florida and it needs to be watched for a few reasons. ESE of the Florida blob is the ongoing saga of Invest 99L and the ULL that is stuck like glue to it. And, lastly worth mentioning a wave that has moved into the Eastern Caribbean is flaring up and traveling the same back roads that 90L did before it became Franklin. Looking back at where Franklin began you can see why I watch any area that shows increased convection in that part of the Caribbean with the current set up. The recent past is often prologue to the near term future weather wise. Spoiler alert the yellow area became Franklin. The red area did not become Franklin.

Moving on to a color water vapor loop below that shows a different perspective.

The wonderful water vapor loop above takes us deeper into the structure of the moist atmosphere as well as showing the Upper Level Lows and the dry high regions. Note the wave in the Eastern Carib is followed by another wave from our 2017 Cabo Verde Wave Train. Going back to August 3rd when we were given a bright red area off the coast of Africa and yellow area appeared in the Caribbean as a possible area of formation.  You can also see the Upper Level Low really well in this loop. It twists, enhancing rainfall in 99L and then it chokes if off again. 

And surprises have been common this year and last year so I see no reason to ignore the possibility of more popping up close in creating home grown systems. Home grown from waves that traveled far but couldn't get it together until they got closer to land. That's problematic as the closer they get to land the harder it is for them to become fish storms. Yesterday the NHC posted a yellow circle off the coast of Florida in the Bahamas. Art imitates life as a weak area of vorticity spun up near the Bahamas and made a face at the forecasters in South Florida at the NHC. You can see below and judge for yourself. Is that a wink, a smile or is it gritting it's teeth there below?

For South Florida this enhances the rainfall totals and may cause some locally heavy flooding, but it's just another day in a tropical paradise where it rains often this time of year; especially this particular year. Despite a strong high Miami has been in the flow for monsoonal type of rainstorms way past the usual prime time for Miami Monsoons in May, June and early July. August begins normally to dry out but time will tell this year. 

The NWS last night in Miami talked on it with the sound of "yeah whatever, we are used to this" and that's probably true. This discussion is shown above, though this morning they did warn on rip tides and pop up strong storms. As this area it is moving WNW to NW it could cause problems up the way. And Chick Jacobs knows up the way as in Carolina weather as in specifically the Sandhills. Google it unless you play golf in which case I'm sure you know where it is... 

A good link to use for anything Florida is below. It has a great radar site and I suggest you hold onto that link as it's valuable during the Hurricane Season or any time of year if you live in Florida. And before it affects the Carolina's weather let's look at South Florida. Picture it sliding up the coast much like the system that Julia formed from last year.

Rain forecast for today in Florida.

Messy... very messy.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Speaking of links and Tropical Storm Julia. In September of 2016 the NHC put up an Invest for an area just off the coast of South Florida and added a circle on their map highlighting concern. Then they pulled the Invest. Then they put it back up and eventually it evolved into Tropical Storm Julia. It had low odds and they pretty much kept saying "yeah we see it" and everyone was as always looking beyond out into the Atlantic at a westbound tropical wave. I was pretty sure something would form and decided to go down to Florida for my son's wedding at a time we could intercept it and see some tropical weather along the way. I wasn't disappointed. The drive through Georgia into Florida was intense and in Jacksonville tropical storm conditions definitely existed, the hotel we stayed in on Ormond Beach had some flooding in the oceanfront rooms. The little yellow circle off of Florida last year was ignored for waves that had better model support until Julia crawled onto the beaches of North Florida and the NHC called it a Tropical Storm over land. The end result might be different with this area, but the set up is similar. See below.

September 2016 below.

Old post concerning Florida rain and tropical waves.

Link below:

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/09/tropical-rains-florida-discussion.html

Fast forward to today.

Yellow X in the same spot as last year.

Low chances... a nod to it's presence.

Weak sign of vorticity.

Close up view of the area 

It does have a definitive twist on radar.

Below you can see the whole wide picture.

As the sunrises over the world

So let's go back to the beginning.

I said at the top today is a day to wait and watch.

But expect surprises as this has been the trend this year.

And to some degree last year.

Struggling waves, close in surprises.

99L is indeed dancing with the ULL.

The ULL won't let go.

If 99L can get away from the ULL.

The ULL will oddly help it breathe.

But until then they are entwined.

Again more worried on down the road than now.

At some point the road ends. 

Where an when?

Models below.

It is now where we thought it needed to be to do something.

Most believe now that this double entity known as 99L...

Will get caught up in the frontal boundary up the way.

Sort of a three some now and as usual the front wins out.

Time will tell.

Stay tuned.

Watch and wait.

If you are in the Carolinas enjoy the cool temps.

Mid 60s in Raleigh this morning.

Going up to mid 80s :)

Keep watching 99L and the ULL...

And don't ignore the area off of Florida.

As this year is the year of surprises close in..

..again.

AGAIN watch them dance in the loop below.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I know you want to know what's over Africa. Kind of quiet. Will tropical weather affect watching the eclipse on the 21st of August? Stay tuned. And watch waves that flare up later rather than sooner.