Tropics Tuesday. Caribbean Wave that was X96L Playing Peek a Boo... NHC says Nothing Gonna Form NADA for 5 days. Okay.. Watch Off Coast of Carolinas Down the Road. Weak Waves Wander West into the Caribbean.
I want to point out two things.
While models "agree" nothing is forming soon.
Both GFS and the EURO show the same thing.
Increased moisture in the Caribbean down the road.
Rare to see agreement with them.
Always worth watching waves in that area.
Waves that do not develop end up there.
More on that later.
What is not open for business in early August.
Is open for business in late August!
Note Rob from www.crownweather.com below.
He offers suggestions.
His site is a paid for service site.
But he posts on Twitter and you can follow along.
Now let's look at the tropics today.
Love this loop Mike has on his main page.
An interesting loop.
Allows you to see our part of the world.
The front moving off of the East Coast.
Kind of hanging out off the coast of Carolina.
That happens often.
Will that next fast moving feature give it a shove?
Or what?
An old wave is flaring up near PR.
This keeps happening do you notice that?
Early August it doesn't develop.
What happens in September?
Just leaving that thought in your head.
Then we have X96L.
An interesting tropical wave.
Yes it IS a tropical wave.
It was downgraded from Invest status.
And yet it keeps rolling west.
It's a tropical wave.
Weak tropical waves move West.
Sometimes.......
Sometimes they find a friendlier environment.
Sometimes they just drift into the EPAC
Or get blown apart by shear.
This is where we are today with 96L
OLD GRAPHIC
Model Fail
Models showed it developing.
Models implied it would lift WNW.
As it stayed weak it went West.
Yesterday X96L looked like a player.
It was literally spinning on some loops.
One image doesn't really tell the whole story.
But it was an impressive image.
Then it went poof.
Nice naked wave.
Nice bones.
But looked like a goner.
Going back to the original blue red images.
Almost hard to find last night ....
This morning like the proverbial cat...
... the cat came back.
The cat that was supposed to be Chantal.
In the Caribbean now... South of Hispaniola.
Still moving West.
Moving W through dry air.
Yet finding ways to maintain convection.
Go figure.
I point this out not because it's becoming Chantal...
But I'm saying Chantal is the next name.
The name everyone thought 96L would get.
What I am saying is should it survive...
Where does it go?
Always worth watching these sort of waves.
Many times Invests and TDs that died away.
Then they come back closer to shore.
I don't want to offer a few examples.
Because I'm just saying it's fun to watch.
Not screaming shark.
Let's look at Earthnull.
It's a wave.
You see not closed.
But a kink.. a "wave" in the wind.
A small reflection where X96L is now.
Another kink for the wave that's behind it...
Note the graphics below.
We are in Tropical Wave Season.
Dabuh loves waves.
Dabuh is smart.
Waves that don't die completely can become problems.
Another area to wonder on is off the SE coast.
There is a small chance of a set up coming.
A weak set up and most likely too weak to get a status.
But the pattern continues so over the next 3 weeks.
This pattern begs you to keep watching there.
Good loop to use often.
Especially when there is nothing going on.
It's an official loop so valuable.
On the last day...
...a small low forms off of the Carolinas.
Maybe just a low.
Nontropical but interesting.
Also interesting is the 5 day rain projections.
That's a lot of rain just off the E Coast.
Special Extra Credit...
Extrapolate this persistent pattern into September.
We could have serious hurricane problems.
Remember what I said yesterday?
Mike used my graphic today.
So please read yesterday's blog if you have not.
Mike is so smart.
Few realize how smart Mike is.
I've always know Mike was smart.
If you didn't read yesterday's blog.
Please do...
...it shows how climo works.
You know the average times hurricanes form.
Every year is unique.
But it's a good guide in the slow times.
Because click bait online will say otherwise.
They will say so sooo slow.
Maybe nothing going to form?
"What's wrong with the tropics?"
Nothing is "wrong" we are right on schedule.
For an old fashioned, scary hurricane season.
With waves becoming named storms.
With hurricanes forming.
Moving WNW around the high pressure.
And then... taking aim at a city on our coast.
Aim at the islands in the way.
Everyone could be in it to quote a song.
And NOTE for Florida.
When we have a wet summer.
We often end up with a storm in October.
Out of the SW catching a front.
We have fronts still so worried.
As it's been an extremely wet summer there.
So stay tuned.
Shop online or offline.
Buy hurricane supplies.
Go to the Dollar Store...
...money is tight.
Or if you shop there often.
Look for hurricane supplies.
So much there it's unreal.
For a dollar!
Every trip pick up one supply.
Many teachers live at the Dollar Store.
They stock teacher's supplies :)
Buy water.
Buy batteries.
By canned food.
Buy paper products.
As for the tropics.
Fun to watch X96L put on a show.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for up to date discussion ...
Ps...a wonderful Jimmy Buffet song.
I'm not saying Jamaica is getting a hurricane.
I'm saying sometimes mistakes are made.
Models made a big mistake with 96L before.
Only following models is like...
...throwing caution to the wind.
If they don't make sense you have to wonder.
Labels: Caribbean, dollarstores, hurricane, hurricanepreparation, music, season, spaghettimodels, tropics, vacation, Waves, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:48 AM
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