NHC Says Tropics Are Quiet Both in Atlantic & EPAC. Sometimes Though... Things Do Pop Up So... Never Say Never. Shavous Vacation Til Monday Evening. Eat Ice Cream or Cheesecake ;)

This graphic good as of late Friday.

Official image showing nothing happening.

NHC says for 5 days.

Let's see how that verifies in 5 days :)

But seriously not expecting anything to develop.

June is usually too soon....

...but often things pop up suddenly*

Let's look at the loop below.

Note the flow.

West to East 

Up above and down below.

Frontal boundaries are draped across the US.

Frontal boundaries over the South are stalled out.

In the Caribbean the typical Easterly Shear Zone reigns

Always watch old fronts especially off the East Coast...

....or in the Gulf of Mexico.

They are like dangling participles.

Hard to lose totally.

Sometimes they spin up fast.

A wider look shows us a few things.

How wide did you think I was gonna go...

Fronts up above....

Fronts down below.

Different types of fronts.

And an Inter Tropical Convergence Zone in between.

Note that white line that runs across the middle ...

The ITCZ as it used to be called.

It still is but often other names are used.

It's where our waves roll across and off of Africa.

It's where moisture off South America forms it's own in the EPAC.

Later in the season as this becomes more solid....

...we worry on the real storms... 

Hurricanes.

Not Invests.

Not Depressions.

Not Subtropical Storms.

Not even Tropical Storms.

As the waters warm we worry on hurricanes.

Cape Verde Hurricanes.

Africa up close.

It's worth noting everything has a season.

Indian Ocean is wet...

Tropical Waves are identifiable over Africa.

And each wave gets a bit higher in latitude.

This is a process as old as time.

That's why we have a rhyme.

June too soon.

July too stand by.

August you must.......

September Remember.

It's a cute rhyme we all learn growing up in Florida.

It really applies to Cape Verde Hurricanes.

Remember that asterisk?

* Much like old age things seem to pop up out of nowhere in June. My brother in Greece who is an author and musician uses that phrase when dealing with age related aches and pains. We suddenly remember all too well when our father gave up playing softball and Jai Alai and tennis and or anything that involved using his shoulder too much or too hard. He loved sports, but at some age he became more a spectator unless he was attempting to do catch with my brothers. Spoiler Alert: He was better at Jai Alai and tennis than he was catch...   My brother is getting to that age where things pop up and shift around in his body. It doesn't help that he fell out of a huge Tarzan like Ficus tree in Middle School breaking both his legs and an arm; maybe it was two arms and a leg but pretty sure it was both legs. I was living in California getting a play by play from my traumatized mother. Any time we got hurt or in trouble she was traumatized. It was truly traumatizing to realize you were the one that made her traumatized . . . 

The tropics in June when it's officially too soon are like old age... things pop up. Or maybe like a toddler you allow to play with your new CD and he throws it across the room and it breaks into a million pieces. Okay that didn't happen. We didn't have CDs then and we both think my mother broke it as she didn't like the song. Ouch...this has become a real mean fest over my mother. I loved my mother, I miss my mother... she passed on a few years ago and we remember her fondly with jokes. My father told jokes better than he played catch. I digress....  The point is just like ANDREA popped up suddenly out of nowhere.... so can some system at the tail end of a front and in the Gulf of Mexico from the remnants of the remnants of Invest 91L or who knows. Things pop up sometimes and things happen fast and form in the 4th day after the NHC says nothing will form over the next 5 days. I have digressed enough, back to weather ....

Below is the weather in motion.

For anyone who is new here....

Green means rain.

Dark green means heavy rain.

Red blobs are never good...

White means you have "fair" weather.

I've never been sure what "fair" weather means.

I suppose it's politically correct.

Good weather to me is a storm.

Good weather to you means you can sunbathe...

Flooding as I said earlier a few months back...

....will still be the big problem this Spring.

Going into this Summer as the rains continue.

Dabuh is watching waves.

I'm watching waves with him.

Mike is out on a big boat riding through the waves.

There is nothing currently brewing.

I'll be off until Monday evening.

It's Shavous a Jewish holiday my mother loved.

My father loved them all.

My mother loved blintzes and cheesecake.

Shavous is a Spring holiday.

You can read up about it if you wish.

Spring in the sense that it is Spring and...

...Spring fruits abound everywhere.

The tropics are dead but .....

.....there are berries galore in the store.

Making Blintzes Souffle.

Mac and Cheese.

Pimento Cheese.

Fruit Salads.

Lox and Cream Cheese on Onion Rolls.

Dips from Brooklyn bought in Baltimore.

The meat meals include Shake and Bake Chicken.

Sweet and Sour Meat Balls.

Chicken Soup my daughter is making as I type this...

... making French Onion Soup on Sunday.

Different meals for different days.

But those are the usual suspects.

Oh and cheese cake........

Lots of different toppings... 

Chocolate Cheesecake. Strawberry Cheesecake.

Okay I bought the one with different slices ;)

Trying to rest and keep it simple here.

I know it doesn't sound simple.

It is... compared to things I did in previous years.

https://www.busyinbrooklyn.com/tag/shavuot/

A good link to see what some people make.

Good recipes.

Oh did I mention there's an Ice Cream Bar at the Temple?

www.chabad.org

Feel free to Google it or find a Chabad House near you.

The Ice Cream Party is on Sunday after services.

So that's it.

Please refer to my usual friends online ....

www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

www.crownweather.com

https://dabuh.com/

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e060719.htm

There's a few other people but sadly....

...someone's not talking to me.

Maybe I got too silly.

(I'm really sorry)

Or maybe I wasn't sorry enough :(

Anyways...........

I'll be back Monday evening.

Have a good weekend.

If you are at the beach use sunscreen!

If you are doing Shavous....

.... may I suggest Tagamet if dairy doesn't agree with you?

In truth if my oldest daughter wasn't here I'd probably barely cook.

I mean it's dairy? Does anyone really need blintzes?

I can live on yogurt, fruit and ice cream.

And a last note here.

It's not just me that has noticed the lack of storms in the EPAC.

Invest 91L disliked the Pacific so much it swam back into the Atlantic.

It crawled over mountains and jumped into the Gulf of Mexico.

It might still be there rouge like waiting to show up again?

The Epac has been quiet.

So much talk on it still being El Nino.

As far as I'm concerned we are on our way to Neutral.

Neutral as in kind of Normal .. Old School Hurricane Season.

Maybe even checking out La Nina soon ...

But it takes them so long to declare an El Nino....

...they have to wait a while to say it's leaving.

I know.. maybe Modoki

Yeah...whatever.

EPAC is quiet.

Check out Dabuh... 

He's good.

Plays well with others too!

Makes me laugh, smile and dance.

See y'all Monday Night.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... as for my brother the writer who knows things "pop up"

Check out his latest book!

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1980911312

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1980911312

https://loiteringwords.com/

UPDATED! SUNDAY AM! Beryl Is BACK. This Time As a Subtropical Storm. Nothing Expected After Beryl Moves On... For Awhile. 2 Weeks Til August. But...It's Been a Strange Quirky Year So Expect Surprises to Continue. NATL ICE CREAM DAY

Quick update on Beryl

Our Subtropical Storm Sitting over the Gulf Stream.

Good picture on Twitter from @sjltx1963

It is out there.

Small center as always.

Tightly wrapped as always.

Discussion about it being over the Gulf Stream.

Not moving much.

Not much expected.

Sort of Beryl's story from the beginning.

You got to think of Beryl like one of those preemie babies born way back that wasn't expected to make it. The odds were too great, it was too tiny and not able to survive. Yet it survived. Beryl thrived in negative conditions, swam around like some sort of scuba diver hiding from the surface. Then coming back and showing her colors once over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. And, speaking of "warmer waters" in theory check out this map of the cooler waters Chris left behind. 

Yet somehow Beryl found her groove again.

No disrespect to NHC but it's now a Canadian storm.

So showing their map first.

NHC below.

What's note worthy is Beryl reformed over coolerwater.

Beryl formed in the Atlantic over cooler water.

Maybe our thoughts on cool water need to...

....be rethunk :)

Still spinning after all this time.

It's Sunday I'm in a mood.

Ice Cream is on my radar for lunch.

Do we need to wonder on what's off the SE coast?

Possibly. Fronts are wonderful this time of year.

But then they fall flat there and well yeah...

Sometimes something spins up.

Dabuh raises that question.

As he has been in Surfer Heaven...

...he's very aware of the weather.

And that's it for this morning's update.

On the little storm that could

https://parade.com/685622/leahingram/8-deals-for-national-ice-cream-day-2018/

What's your favorite Ice Cream Flavor?

My inquiring mind wants to know ;)

Besos BobbiStornm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

#Bobbistorminsaillymood.

Ps.. Remember back in 1993.

A strange little comedy became a big hit.

Jamaican Bob Sled Team.

That's kind of what Beryl reminds me of...

You can clearly see the closed circulation above.

And the official map from the NHC below.

So Beryl is back.

This time as a Subtropical Storm.

That makes sense.

Being reborn that far North in the Atlantic.

Sailing even farther North...

...out to sea.

Relevant data from NHC below.

Note Sable Island could get impacted again.

An impressive storm system really.

Born against all the odds in a sea of dust.

Water temperatures cooler than normal.

Dry air everywhere. 

Yet she became a Hurricane anyway.

Small, itsby, bitsy hurricane.

But a hurricane for the record book.

Now cruising in the North Atlantic.

Go figure.

Sat image above.

Note the broad center.

Weather far removed from the center.

Weather everywhere.

Below is NOT Beryl

Seems like just rain.

Out by African more rain.

New wave, next wave.

Speaking of waves.

Quiet, serene looking water below.

Small waves, blue sky.

The horizon in between.

Speaking of waves ....

Will the rest of July be quiet?

Hard to say.

Odd year.

Possibilities out there.

So we will keep watching.

I had a beautiful Shabbos today (Jewish Sabbath on Saturday) and the weather even cooperated making it a joy to be outside in the middle of July. The air was not heavy, it was actually delightful in the shade and not bad even in the sunshine. And, there was so much sunshine today. The trees here in Raleigh look a little bit droopy, we could use a little rain I'm guessing. But, it was and has been beautiful the last few days. I'll be back to update as needed but there really isn't much of a need to update on Beryl is there? Two coastal cruisers that remained out in the Atlantic Ocean so far, but I wouldn't count on us being that lucky the rest of the year. Who knows? We'll see. Time always tells. While time is telling have fun, be happy and rock steady.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on twitter 

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5 on Facebook 

Ps... Here's some beach music if you really need me to offer you a tune ;)

Tropics Quiet. Texas and Louisiana Getting Tropical RAIN. Heat Wave Hits Early Before Summer Officially Arrives. Go to the Beach or the Movies.Cool Off. Eat Ice Cream...

Monday in the Tropics.

Atlantic Side

EPAC...

Wave discussion....

A Westbound Wave...

Yes there's a wave.

It's the 3rd wave mentioned.

Shear is there.

But so is the wave.

This is the dance of the tropics.

There's a frontal boundary.

East of Florida.

Dangling..

The real story in our part of the world is the extreme early heat on the East Coast. I think the issue here is timing in that it came on like gangbusters. The weather was nice, it was getting warmer, it's only June and the Summer Solstice hasn't set in and then suddenly it feels like late Summer in early June. It throws people off in ways that are hard to explain. People get testy, they drive crazy, they don't feel like things are aligned properly. We have such an illusion as to the actual control we have in the world with regard to Mother Nature. It's as if she is programmed at some point and continues marches to her own tune. She starts Summer too soon and Winter often lasts too long. And, that's weather you can't control it but you can watch and have a great ride like on one long wave to shore. The shore in the case of most of America is Winter and it follows after Fall and we capitalize them as they are raised to a level of a person such as the President and the Governor. Let's just treat this June as if it's early July and move on.



Waves form off of Africa and roll West not giving a damn if there is Saharan Dust out there because there's always SAL out there. That's life in June and June is always a crap shoot in the Tropics. Either it's way too quiet or it's way too hot. And, people online in the weather community get nasty, testy and extremely judgmental. And you know why? They want something to really track the way a surfer wants a wave and someone up at bat wants that pitch that's gonna be just right for him to make a grand slam out into the stands. Yeah, if you had lots of money and time you can jump on a plane and go anywhere you want until the weather gets to where you want it on the TV dial and then fly back and get back in the race. Life really isn't a song but we can live our life like it is a song as Jimmy says, so if you don't like the weather today just take a deep breath, stay in the AC, drink some Iced Tea and wait it out cause time is a moving fast this year. And, no this Heat Wave is not epic as much as early and that makes people nervous because if it's this hot in June what will August bring?



Something to think on with regard to the Tropics in these quiet days while we watch Carlotta wash up on the shores of the EPAC and we watch the little yellow X make it's way steadily towards the Texas coastline and it will rain in Beaumont Texas and parts of Louisiana will get rain. And, that is life in the Tropics on the Monday after a wonderful Father's Day Weekend where I ate some sort of Espresso Chocolate Ice Cream and I'll sip cold vegetable juices today and do penance and Thank God I'm alive and not complain it's hot today because it's gonna be even hotter as the Summer marches on. But I am watching for that really great wave that is going to make it past the Saharan Dust and develop somewhere close in to the coast and hopefully I'll be at the beach to see it roll by. Trust me as a Miami girl I know HOT and July in Miami is HOT but eventually I'll be back there. Til then I'm enjoying the Carolinas and my friends online and my kids on Snapchat. Life is good. It's hot.. eat Ice Cream! Or sip Iced Tea. Get in the groove we are just starting this Summer Game we play and it's going to move towards a crescendo as July moves towards August and then things will really shake, rattle and roll.

So go buy a kiddie pool and put it in your backyard and climb in even if you don't have any kiddies. Throw some ice cubes in it if it's really hot. Go take a ride to the beach or to the lake or put on a beach movie.. go to the movies and stimulate the economy and find a theater that cranks the AC up real cold and enjoy. This is how we live, this is what we do. My kids went to the beach yesterday in Seattle (oh what a beach) Alki Beach always beautiful with palm trees and mountains in the distance and my son in Miami took his baby daughter to the beach for the first time and let her toes tangle down so she could feel the sand between her toes because that's who we are... And, way Up North in Up State NY where it was so hot it felt like Miami my daughter put her little boy into the pool to cool off and for the always important photo shot. Be like a child, enjoy and embrace the heat or crank up the AC and enjoy.

The Hurricane Season is on it's way whether you want it to be or not. The Hurricane Season is on it's way even if El Nino is building up in the Pacific or not. The Hurricane Season is on it's way even if the water in the far Eastern Atlantic is still cool enough to feel like Pudget Sound. It won't stay that way. Trust me. Oh and if you have a Publix go enjoy the cool AC and the friendly staff and shop for some Hurricane Supplies also buy some Ice Ceam and Popsicles for those long hot summer days before the hurricanes threaten your world.

You got to think like a kid.

Or a fantastic parent.

Get your toes in the water....

...your feet in the sand!

if there's no beach.

Take a bath!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

UPDATED.... TS WATCHES POSTED FOR NC to VA Line....OBX & Inland Sounds... Maria and Lee... HUGE Cones... Low Confidence. Weak Front Hopefully Grabs Maria ... Will Maria Stall? Maria Already to West of Forecast Points

Not outflow already moving out NW ahead of Maria.

Watch the outflow above.

Timing is everything.

So showing this cone first.

Note this goes up to the NC/VA Line.

Includes the Sounds Inland.

Storm surge from Cape Lookout to Duck

I would take that storm surge seriously.

It may not be high but could cause problems.

Key Messages from NHC:

Panthers loop above.

White loop below.

You can see how close Maria's outer bands..

...are to North and South Carolina.

So yes....

Watches up for the NC coast..to VA border.

Before and After.

The cone didn't move as much...

The models continually show impacts.

EURO Western most model.

GFS Eastern most model.

Been there before.

Irma for example.

Might possibly get extended up a bit.

Time will tell.

Much depends on where and when Maria turns.

Much depends on how far West she gets first.

There really isn't much difference.

Both models show a close call.

And that could get closer.

Euro below. Wednesday.

GFS below Wednesday.

Currently

Discussion for Raleigh.

I'll add in Wilmington later.

Point is Raleigh been taking it seriously.

Something to watch.. 

Wilmington, NC

Wind probs note go up thru VA.

A good link is below that discusses Maria.

And with regard to land interaction.

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/1476740949039825

My bottom line here is this...  IF we didn't have the great models we do I'd tell you that I think Maria could get much closer to the coast than expected and may move slowly prolonging coastal impacts over a few days; much like Jose earlier in the week with Cape Cod. Eventually one of the fronts will catch it and grab and take it out to sea along with Lee. The set up is too fluid and the current front has a fragile look to it and needs reinforcing by the next one. Maria could stay over waters traveled by Jose that might be cooler than normal, or she could pull closer to the coast and intensify some or at least hold her own.

Great maps that show this are up on Spaghetti Models. Note the images below.

Red is hot.

Blue is not.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

And lastly Mike is Live at 9 PM.

Note the point about the pressure being low.

However the winds not that high.

Again watch for storm surge.

Coastal impacts.

Learn from Irma.

 Those are my thoughts tonight. Really Maria needs to be watched as she is doing that flirt with the Outer Banks dance and often they come closer for a good look before going out to sea. It doesn't take much to have some roads get flooded and some beach erosion. And, boaters should beware and stay in port and take Maria seriously. Often things can change fast when a system is off the Carolinas.

Check your local weather if you are near or in the watch areas. Check often.

http://www.weather.gov/

As always the Navy looks further out.

If you are in that shaded area.

Keep watching Maria.

Just to be on the safe side.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

 * * * * *

Wider Cone shown below

That's kind of like saying....

"wow gonna be windy out there"

Take the above cone ...

..with the Rainbow Brite cone below.

Huge amount of territory there...

I'm sure someone here remembers Rainbow Brite.

I'm pretty sure if NHC made an ice cream cone..

...it would look like the cone above.

Ever go to the ice cream store...

... stare, think calories...

ask for a cup rather than decide on the cone?

So many cones... too many choices.

Which 1 would the EURO choose I wonder..

http://www.benjerry.com/whats-new/2016/ice-cream-cone-guide

I was a librarian for quite a while both in public libraries and academia. One thing you learn early on when doing information searches is to go wide if you aren't sure what the patron is talking about, then you go small, then you go wide again and eventually you figure out what they are looking for and find them the book or article they need. Then NHC goes WIDE often with their cone when they are not sure what information to give and confidence in the forecast track is low. When confidence is high they look as if they are on a diet and only doing Paleo; less choices and models all agree on the menu plan.

Of late it feels as if they are doing a super size me cone for these larger than life hurricanes. You remember the whole super size me concept I'm sure as most people just go "yeah" and nod when they are asked if they want the large vs the small. We are an odd nation in ways, we eat big, exercise bigger to try to work off that extra super sized meal and in the end we really don't get anywhere but well the rich get rich and the poor get food off the dollar menu.

Hurricane Lee recently referred to by the NHC as "tiny" has a huge cone too. Hmnnn funny but do you remember when I said not to forget about Lee even though he was dismissed by the NHC before being upgraded back to tropical storm status and then Hurricane Status and even went through a quick rapid intensification process earlier today.  That was why I said not to forget about Lee. Seems power wise Hurricane Lee wants to be super sized as well however they are barely paying attention to him. Big mistake. Everything in the atmosphere is related and the chaos theory with regard to Lee's butterfly wings may have some small impact on a forecast that currently has low confidence as seen by the large cone on the 4th and 5th day. See Lee's cone below. 

I'm on a post holiday diet.

No cones for me today.

Maybe Menchies in a cup later this week.

So rather than talk on NHC cones.

Let's look at the image below.

Maria missed her forecast point.

Some loops show forecast points.

They are changed at the new advisory.

You got to be sneaky and check fast.

See the eye of Maria is to the left of the forecast point.

Moved slower than forecast too.

You won't read about that tho in discussion.

Tidbits below from discussion.

My translation below.

Maria is moving slower than her forecast track and has already slowed down a tad as a high pressure ridge is pushing down on her creating a flat top and squished appearance. We believe the front will pick her out and take her out to sea before a real landfall. Expect OBX to see some noticeable weather from the closeness of Maria. 

Okay... I know they don't talk that way and they go long on a "forecast" vs explain why it's not already following their forecast. They put it into the forecast so the next forecast can verify as it's all about being right vs showing what is happening and then explaining why they have confidence in their current forecast but reminding people there's a wide margin of error sometimes. They did say their remains a "fair amount of spread on the timing of the recurvature. See the loop below:

Maria looks odd.

So does the front.

ULL to the West of Maria remains.

Note Lee on the other side...

...of the Great Divide

A High between them.

High is digging down.

For now nudging Maria to left.

Let's read on...

.. foreshadowing at 11 AM.

If things don't change soon.

NHC will go longer on this at 5 PM.

Anytime they say "regardless"

It's about to getting interesting.

One of my favorite songs...

Willie Nelson songs is below.

Lesser known but beautiful song.

Maybe it's a wobble west.

Irregardless . . . 

The front is caught...

..between 2 ULLs

I'm sure the front will look better in a few days.

Maria is just right of the ULL over the SE.

It's hot in the Carolinas.

10 day forecast for Raleigh.

My problem is trying to correlate the two.

Wiggle Room rears it's head again.

Not much of a cold front.

Heats up fast after a 3 degree difference.

Tuesday.

Is Maria close to NC?

Has Maria stalled?

Did the front slow down?

Is it out to sea?

We are days away from a last stand. We are days away from a high confidence forecast or a cone that isn't as wide as Texas. So watching Maria spin and listening to people I trust online and keeping an eye on the NHC wide cone and then we will see what we will see. And, I'll be living on Spaghetti Models because it's got lots of good info and NO calories ;) or carbs (neat trick) and I'll be back with updates when I have something to say. Will that front be too little, too late or will the out to sea get delayed after Maria does the Outer Banks and strong tropical storm force winds move further inland than the NHC would like to say just yet?

Again up close look at Maria.

Time will tell.
But I'm watching.
We are all watching.
After that long bout with Jose...
Much of the coast is watching.

Stay tuned.
I'll update at the top.
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm
I update in real time there.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... As I always say. This is a dance as old as time. Hurricanes flirting with the Outer Banks.