A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, August 10, 2018
2 Areas Being Watched in the Atlantic With Low Chances of Development. A Good Time to Review Your Hurricane Preparation Plans.
20% chances in the 5 day.
Mid Atlantic Tropical Wave.
There are two areas in the Atlantic that the NHC has highlighted to be watched and observed for a low chance of possible development. The first area is one of the robust waves that came off of Africa recently and has maintained it's integrity after hitting the water where other waves before it have fallen apart and fizzled. This is a normal slow change in this area that occurs as we move further into August and shear while there is lessened and Saharan Dust weakens it's strangle hold on the Main Development Region known as the MDR in the Atlantic. Often these waves develop a low pressure area, continue to move West as a recognizable entity yet they are usually not ready for prime time and rarely get a name the way Beryl did earlier this year. Each wave moistens up the environment there helping the next few waves that come off and there is a small possibility that this one could develop enough into a designated system. The area below shows the uptick in enhancement along the ITCZ but no sign of any low pressure systems.
20% chance of development in the 5 day.
In the North Atlantic not threatening any place.
Another area that is being watched is in the Mid Atlantic again, similar to where Subtropical Storm Debby formed, where a subtropical or tropical low could develop. I know it feels like it's the Year of the Subtropical Storm doesn't it? In truth these are the areas we watch often for signs of some development. Most likely it will move towards the NE over time not threatening the East Coast. Still though the NHC watches these areas as that is their job. A good but slightly terrifying story is told in the link I am posting below that shows what happened back in the middle of the 1800s when a strong hurricane moved towards a barrier island in the Gulf of Mexico with no more warning than some windy weather and strong surf until it began to rain and the strong surf washed over the island filled with happy summer beach goers trying to escape the heat further inland.
The story above illustrates what happened frequently in the days before the NHC studied, tracked and warned us of storms moving our way. No matter how bad Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina were one can only imagine how much more horrifying the death toll would have been had the residents of Florida and the Gulf Coast states had no warning until it was too late to evacuate or prepare for the those two deadly hurricanes. Even in 1938 the fast moving, strong hurricane now known as the Long Island Express took most of it's victims by surprise and scarred a generation of New Englanders with a real fear of hurricanes.
The time to prepare for hurricane season is now, not when you get to the market after a Hurricane Warning has been issued and there is no tuna, no peanut butter, no jam and no diapers for your two babies under the age of three. Now is the time to make sure your medications and the medications for your parents or loved ones are filled and that you have enough of those medications should a hurricane quickly intensify offshore and it rips into your town with more intensity than expected and days... no weeks... or maybe months before your Safeway or Publix or Kroger market reopens. It gets pretty hairy after a major hurricane makes landfall and those who are prepared or who have possibly evacuated do way better than those who thought for sure the media was hyping the hurricane and sure that this one would curve away and go elsewhere and not make landfall.
Wishing hurricanes away doesn't work out well... trust me... and sometimes worse case scenarios really do happen. Andrew actually was an "almost worse case scenario" as the eye bobbled to the South just enough that it made landfall and traversed areas less populated than South Dade in the Homestead area where nurseries and farms share space with subdivisions and swamps. That track across South Dade spared extremely populated areas from getting the deadly winds of a Category 5 Hurricane. And, we were warned, prepared and given time to either evacuate or hunker down. And, trust me as a Miamian I can tell you that those who did not evacuate for Andrew in South Dade hit the roads when Hurricane Irma took aim at South Florida last year.
A few examples of historic hurricanes in relatively quiet years...
Hurricane Andrew
Hurricane Donna
1935 Labor Day Hurricane
1938 Long Island Express
Hurricane Betsy
And all of those incredible articles written by academics online about how cool the water temperature is in the Mid Atlantic and how strong Saharan Dust is only lead people to a false sense of reality that because 2018 is not like 2017 that we all do not need to worry about this hurricane season. Ironically, oddly or not so oddly, some of the strongest, more deadly hurricanes in history have happened in relatively quiet years with similar set ups to this year. Last year was a real rarity. Let's say someone won the lotto and ran out and spent all the money and then went to the store and bought a second lottery ticket with the winning numbers? That doesn't happen often. Most people would not mind having a sequel to winning the lottery but people who have been threatened by multiple hurricanes in one year will tell you the fear is real and many end up with post traumatic stress. In fact the divorce rate after people survived Hurricane Andrew in South Florida was at an all time high. Hurricanes bring stress, even when you survive and your home has minor damage and your job is only closed a few weeks. Pressure along the weak points in our lives is heightened after a hurricane.
Knowledge is power. So when you see these early yellow bubbles in the Atlantic with a low chance of development be glad that the NHC is doing their job and giving you a heads up and Mother Nature is giving you a reminder that it's time to stock up on supplies when you see them on sale in Publix vs waiting until they are all gone by the time you finally drag yourself to the store to go shopping.
So think about that this weekend when you see something on sale that would be useful while being trapped in your house with electric out, water not usable and all the street signs in your neighborhood have been blown away.
Tropics Quiet. Texas and Louisiana Getting Tropical RAIN. Heat Wave Hits Early Before Summer Officially Arrives. Go to the Beach or the Movies.Cool Off. Eat Ice Cream...
Monday in the Tropics.
Atlantic Side
EPAC...
Wave discussion....
A Westbound Wave...
Yes there's a wave.
It's the 3rd wave mentioned.
Shear is there.
But so is the wave.
This is the dance of the tropics.
There's a frontal boundary.
East of Florida.
Dangling..
The real story in our part of the world is the extreme early heat on the East Coast. I think the issue here is timing in that it came on like gangbusters. The weather was nice, it was getting warmer, it's only June and the Summer Solstice hasn't set in and then suddenly it feels like late Summer in early June. It throws people off in ways that are hard to explain. People get testy, they drive crazy, they don't feel like things are aligned properly. We have such an illusion as to the actual control we have in the world with regard to Mother Nature. It's as if she is programmed at some point and continues marches to her own tune. She starts Summer too soon and Winter often lasts too long. And, that's weather you can't control it but you can watch and have a great ride like on one long wave to shore. The shore in the case of most of America is Winter and it follows after Fall and we capitalize them as they are raised to a level of a person such as the President and the Governor. Let's just treat this June as if it's early July and move on.
Waves form off of Africa and roll West not giving a damn if there is Saharan Dust out there because there's always SAL out there. That's life in June and June is always a crap shoot in the Tropics. Either it's way too quiet or it's way too hot. And, people online in the weather community get nasty, testy and extremely judgmental. And you know why? They want something to really track the way a surfer wants a wave and someone up at bat wants that pitch that's gonna be just right for him to make a grand slam out into the stands. Yeah, if you had lots of money and time you can jump on a plane and go anywhere you want until the weather gets to where you want it on the TV dial and then fly back and get back in the race. Life really isn't a song but we can live our life like it is a song as Jimmy says, so if you don't like the weather today just take a deep breath, stay in the AC, drink some Iced Tea and wait it out cause time is a moving fast this year. And, no this Heat Wave is not epic as much as early and that makes people nervous because if it's this hot in June what will August bring?
Something to think on with regard to the Tropics in these quiet days while we watch Carlotta wash up on the shores of the EPAC and we watch the little yellow X make it's way steadily towards the Texas coastline and it will rain in Beaumont Texas and parts of Louisiana will get rain. And, that is life in the Tropics on the Monday after a wonderful Father's Day Weekend where I ate some sort of Espresso Chocolate Ice Cream and I'll sip cold vegetable juices today and do penance and Thank God I'm alive and not complain it's hot today because it's gonna be even hotter as the Summer marches on. But I am watching for that really great wave that is going to make it past the Saharan Dust and develop somewhere close in to the coast and hopefully I'll be at the beach to see it roll by. Trust me as a Miami girl I know HOT and July in Miami is HOT but eventually I'll be back there. Til then I'm enjoying the Carolinas and my friends online and my kids on Snapchat. Life is good. It's hot.. eat Ice Cream! Or sip Iced Tea. Get in the groove we are just starting this Summer Game we play and it's going to move towards a crescendo as July moves towards August and then things will really shake, rattle and roll.
So go buy a kiddie pool and put it in your backyard and climb in even if you don't have any kiddies. Throw some ice cubes in it if it's really hot. Go take a ride to the beach or to the lake or put on a beach movie.. go to the movies and stimulate the economy and find a theater that cranks the AC up real cold and enjoy. This is how we live, this is what we do. My kids went to the beach yesterday in Seattle (oh what a beach) Alki Beach always beautiful with palm trees and mountains in the distance and my son in Miami took his baby daughter to the beach for the first time and let her toes tangle down so she could feel the sand between her toes because that's who we are... And, way Up North in Up State NY where it was so hot it felt like Miami my daughter put her little boy into the pool to cool off and for the always important photo shot. Be like a child, enjoy and embrace the heat or crank up the AC and enjoy.
The Hurricane Season is on it's way whether you want it to be or not. The Hurricane Season is on it's way even if El Nino is building up in the Pacific or not. The Hurricane Season is on it's way even if the water in the far Eastern Atlantic is still cool enough to feel like Pudget Sound. It won't stay that way. Trust me. Oh and if you have a Publix go enjoy the cool AC and the friendly staff and shop for some Hurricane Supplies also buy some Ice Ceam and Popsicles for those long hot summer days before the hurricanes threaten your world.
UPDATED! Invest 92L Introduced by NHC. 3 Waves... 2 Orange! Wave Train Active.. Discussion on 91L and what Will be 92L and 93L Eventually... Wave Train... African Wave Train. Get a Plan For Hurricane Season Now. Hurricane Gert Going Out to Sea... One or More of These Waves May NOT Go Out To Sea and May Impact the USA..
Invest 92L
That's the 2nd wave if you are keeping track.
Middle wave...
You know that famous scene in Twister where they look up at the threatening sky and say "Going green!!" and get all excited? Well... we be going orange here today. NHC ups the odds of Wave #2 know known as Invest 92L developing. It has a floater (for close in viewing up) and a place on the board at the NRL. No voting rights, but it is allowed in on meetings and discussion ;)
The GFS takes the first wave all the way into the Caribbean (91L) and possibly into the Pacific again seeing the EPAC with potential storms. 92L it takes North of the Islands where it seems to die out. 93L becomes a Fish storm for the time being following a path like Gert. That's early, it's the GFS and it's one run.
Creating strong rip currents on the East Coast beaches.
Looking good but not threatening land.
Now you can compare and contrast today at 2 PM
with this morning from the NHC at 8 AM
If you have not already read my blog today.
Keep reading the thoughts are still valid.
Thanks ... BobbiStorm
Yesterday I began to talk on the possibility of 3 waves in the Eastern Atlantic and multiple invests being tracked down the line. And here we are today with 3 areas of interest in the distant Atlantic. A bouquet of yellow and orange tulips laying on their side pointing towards our part of the world.
The image I put up yesterday to foreshadow this is below:
Note the mudslide in Seirra Leone was due to the last of the waves. The second wave made the ground soft, but the third wave, the larger complex over Africa seen above in this older picture had torrential amounts of rain and the whole hillside just gave way. This is how the waves work sometimes as one sets up a situation for the one behind it. In this case, that second wave is soaking the atmosphere ahead of the 3rd wave to be ripe for development of a real Cabo Verde Hurricane. A real CV Season for many with El Nino gone, the MJO onboard and even the Kelvin Wave playing it's part. A trio of conditions, a trio of waves for now (there will be more) and lot's in store for the next few months to worry on from a tropical standpoint.
Gert can be seen below easily.
As for Gert.... It's important to say the models, generally, did not do well with this wave. They over forecast its development, then they dropped it, then they went all over the place on Intensity forecasting from weak nothing to Major Hurricane. Luckily it's been a fish storm not threatening any city that needs to get proper watches and warnings. But as a test of the models... it doesn't say much for the models. Their forecast has been off on everything, except for the track, and especially with regard to forward speed and ability to wrap. It's a Hurricane and it's still having problems wrapping. But a decent hurricane.
A reminder for newbies... a hurricane does not have to have an eye to be a hurricane. It has to have the speed. Of late it seems the question has been does it have an eye. Eyes usually pop out at around 80 or 85 mph, however they can show up early on. But the criteria for a hurricane is wind speed not the shape of the eye. It's not a swim suit competition for the title. Remember that. Gert is going out to sea. But what lingers in my mind is the steering currents were not as strong as they expected so it's slowly going out to sea, but it is forecast to go out to sea.
Now moving on to the 3 areas of interest.
Note only 1 currently is an Invest.
That will change.
Invest 91L
Invest 91L can seen below.
Beginning to possibly consolidate.
The 1st of the waves (91L) is forecast to go West.
After several wild model runs they have settled down some.
www.spaghettimodels.com has them up as always.
As always it can pull WNW at some point.
With some exceptions.
Most models take 91L into the Caribbean.
I don't want to speculate beyond that.
If it stays low it goes into Central America..
...or the Yucatan...
If it stays high we wonder on the Gulf of Mexico.
Note I said "wonder" not "worry"
It's a long ways out still.
Note in that top screen you see a line out in the ocean? That should be Invest 92L but it's up to the NHC. Early discussion based on models shows this to be Florida Bahamas concern. Understand when you have multiple waves you have multiple scenarios and multiple intangibles and models do not work well with regard to so many intangibles without a closed center in any of these areas that are just waves so they need to be watched but not taken as a path set in stone. That said if you live in the Florida area it would be time well spent to go over your hurricane plans and have a plan for a Tropical Storm vs a plan for a Hurricane. As Bryan Norcross says an "executable plan" and start stocking up when you can at Publix or your local Dollar Store. The 2nd wave could be a Florida concern down the road, down the distant road.
Now we come to the last of this morning's 3 waves.
This is the wave that is a concern for me to be a big player.
But that's a stab in the dark still as it's far out.
The fact that there is already a box on it shows you that.
The only thing I can say with certain is this..
The area below WILL see development.
Why you ask is this so difficult for forecasters?
Did you really ask that?
Let's put it this way. Let's take the 2nd wave for this explanation. The forecast for this wave relies on Invest 91L doing certain things in both track, intensity and forward speed. It also takes into account that Wave #3 does NOT overtake wave number 2 and move faster than previously forecast. It's just way too many intangibles to take any model run seriously at this point. As time goes by.. one or two of them develop, they have a real center to base future runs off of and then we get better models but if those models don't verify then the other models don't really verify as we no longer have a tree falling in a forest anymore we have a traffic jam on the Tropical Highway known as the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. They are all converging at once and there are so many variables it's like trying to be certain five days out who is on first.
Nuff said.
So cut the gang at the NHC some slack over the next few days.
Don't fall a victim to hype.
Knowledge is power.
I'll be back later today to update my thoughts.
Any important information will be updated at the top.
Anything big gets its own new post.
Look how far away these 3 waves are...
... also we have fronts on the map as well.
My bottom line below on the tropics today.
Gert is moving on...and so am I.
Lead wave Invest 91L is moving west and slowly coming together. IF it comes together faster it could pull more to the North, but if it continues pulling together slowly it will most likely move West into the Caribbean. From there again it depends on strength. If it stays weak it continues west and if it gets stronger it could try to shoot the Yucatan area around Cuba and be a concern up the road for areas in the GOM. Again it can do that and curve up into a frontal boundary and make landfall on the West coast of Florida near Tampa just as easily as be shoved west by a strong high towards Texas. It's way too soon to tell. All options are on the road down the road but in the short term...its moving West
2nd Wave... Middle Child... The middle wave wants to break from the pack and pull more to the North possibly avoiding the Islands or not... and for now seems to be a Florida Bahamas concern. Past that obviously we can talk about later today and tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.
3rd Wave ... Big Concern on this one. Any wave that has "tasted blood" and has aided in a situation that led to tragedy early on as it's departing Africa bears watching until it dies out and the NHC stops writing advisories. As much as I'm concerned about MYami (as we call it) and the 2nd wave I'm more concerned overall on this wave as it has the potential for potential to be realized. Then there's the wave over Africa with wings... and looks determined to make a big splash at the coming out party at Dakar. Stay tuned.
Models come and models go.
But good waves are not so easy to find.
We have some strong ones there and no El Nino.
Check out that link for Publix.
Shop accordingly.
Don't panic.
Prepare.
Again.........there are more waves behind these three so let's stay focused on what we see not what we will see. But, I'm telling you there is a huge, big wave over Africa that will be late to this tropical party and we need to remember that.
No I'm not going all black and white like Drudge. In Drudge's world everything is black and white always, there are no shades of gray with him but this is the tropics and we do things colorfully in the tropics and with lost of musics. The palm fronds rustle and sometimes they are riffled by a strong breeze and they do more than rustle. And sometimes the whole palm tree sways and the palm fronds look like willows all bent over and then the storm passes and you pick up the pieces and rebuild. Sometimes the "pieces" are palm fronds scattered about and other times it's roof tiles or even the roof. But you can prepare and knowledge is power and you can't ignore the weather always. During those slow El Nino years people should have been stocking up on what they can on items on clearance and sale after the quiet hurricane season that had past. Home Depot always has stuff on sale... and as I said yesterday Dollar Stores sell most of everything you need on the lower end of the scale. No they don't sell scales or generators but they have things you can toss in a closet rather than panic and run to Publix and pray they have not been sold out. In which case you end up at lot's of Publix looking for your favorite brands of whatever that were already bought by the early paranoid, panic buyers when they first saw a red circle in the Atlantic about to get a name.
Nuff said...
I've been saying this for weeks... oh no really for months. Get a plan, prepare for hurricane season and be as they say at the NHC #HurricaneStrong.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... we will check back on the 3 waves later today. For now ... make a plan, make a back up plan and hope and pray you won't have to use them. I will update with the newest model runs later today and go more into specifics. But worry on the wave that believes it can fly...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
