Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Updated! HURRICANE Chris Finally Making His Move ... EYE POPS OUT.. NE at 9 MPH Recon Going In to Verify Hard Data Before Upgrading Chris To Hurricane. X Beryl Still A Player. Models Doing Kinky Things. Wait Until Next Model Run NHC says 50/50 Odds on Beryl Again. Life Goes On and On and On... Maria About to Slam Into China as a Dangerous Cyclone.

Hurricane Chris
85 MPH
980 MB
Moving NE at 10 MPH
2nd Hurricane of 2018

Beautiful and impressive.
Also safely staying out to sea.

Recon has found Hurricane Force Winds in Chris.
Satellite imagery shows that as well.
A well defined Eye ...
... better developed Chris.
A beautiful Chris.

Boy does that show it all. 
Chris wrapped convection up in all quadrants.
No more bottom heavy Chris.
Developing a nice tail too!

This image shows the steering currents.
The new trof pushing down on Chris.
Protecting the USA
Chris may make it to England.
After first doing the Canadian Maritimes.
That green satellite above is from their site.
Phil Ferro in Miami giving this thoughts.
And showing us an intense up close image.
The EYE of Chris.

Where do we go from here?
Things are pretty much set in stone.

Wind Probabilities are shown below.

I'll update later tonight.
If you haven't read...
...please do.
You may learn a lot.
Or at least be entertained a bit.


Still waiting on recon.
Adding in a few things here.
Maria is about to make landfall in China.
Why do I care?
Continue reading the blog you'll know.
Over in China...

Great video of Jim Edds nailing the eye of Maria.
And enjoying the sunshine.
Yes the sun can shine in the eye of a Hurricane.
Been there... really... awesome experience.
Well if you get back to safety fast and live to tell about it.
Back side slams you fast and quick.

And there's the sun shot he posted.
It's in the video ...

As for Chris...
Looks incredible but waiting on recon.

Still a tropical storm.
Not a hurricane yet.
That will change.


Salient Points.
Waiting on recon to make the call to Hurricane Status.
Finally moving though.

Cone below

Wind Probs.
Currently Cape Sable in the cross hairs.

Satellite loop below.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Chris clearly visible to everyone.
Remnants of Beryl also visible.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

I post this site often as it shows the whole basin and the wide range of influences that have an impact upon both waves and named systems. Blue and dark purple are dry air and orange and golds are moist air. The circular while area that pops out where Chris is in fact the "eye" center but we are waiting for recon to collect the best hard data before an upgrade to Hurricane status it seems. We will wait as having patience is a key part of tracking hurricanes. Nothing good ever happened immediately in this realm of the world and storms that rapidly intensify and make a run for the coast the way OJ used to cream the Dolphins carrying the ball to the End Zone for the Buffalo Bills is an example. Then again if he's carrying your ball it's all good but there's always another side to that story and stories evolve over time as we know. Add in the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 that blew up in the Bahamas fast giving very little lead time to the weather team that promised to get the Vets off of the Florida Keys if a hurricane happened.

Note the words.

"with little advance warning"

Thankfully in today's world that no longer happens.
We have come so far.
We stand on the shoulders of meteorological giants.

Now let's look at today's tropics.

Posting the 5 AM.
You can compare and contrast with 11 AM.
Chris barely 2 MPH N.
Now he's moving way faster.
With determination.
Compare to 11 AM above.

 NHC was generous at 5AM with that forward motion.
That changed finally....
Things change.
Remember that.

Atlantic Ocean.
Chris is easier to find than Beryl ever was...
Chris can even be seen on long range radar.
Well the Western part of Chris

Close up views of Beryl below on Earthnull.
Way down below.
Chris below.

Note there is more bulk to Chris in his legs than his shoulders.
That will change.
There is high pressure to his North pushing down on him.
That will change.
Below ...
...remember the Dvorak I used to show all the time?

Great way of slicing and dicing a storm from far away.
Intensity on the bottom.
As always Chris has been bottom sided.
That will change.
Beautiful color image of Chris 

Oh wait what is that an odd looking bird below.
An Ibis?
A parrot?
Is it a bird?
Or a plane?
No....... it's X Beryl.
Remnants of Beryl.
Still crazy after all these years.
X Beryl will change too.
Another view.

But you thought Hispaniola would kill it?
Think again.
It's gone but not gone.
Tho easier to see now than when it was a Cane.

Is Beryl alive?
Can it come back?
NHC deserves awards for these graphics.
Love it. Really.
Not being sarcastic.

Yes I know I have a strange mind.
It's an acquired taste.
X Beryl has a 50/50 chance of redeveloping.
Say it ain't so.

In 5 Days.
50% chances.

Models are playing with it.
And I do mean playing with it.

The image below can be found on Spaghetti Models

Say it ain't so.
This is why I don't hug models.
I hug people ;)
No that's not an old graphic for Jeanne
Could a storm do that?
Yes, that has happened.
Don't bet on it happening.

Remember when.......
Jeanne bounced off of Hispaniola.
What doesn't kill it makes it stronger.

Again could that happen?
Anything in theory could.
But no it won't. 
Whatever happens will happen.

Love Dabuh's Tweet this morning.

Dust in the wind indeed.

Last night watching Earthnull.
A good tool. 
Think on that word.

So I asked Cranky.
What would cause that disturbance in the force?
I respect him and he always has an opinion. 
This is what he said.

This morning the kink in the wind has moved a bit.

Ignore my little marker from the pointer.

This is what I want to say about Beryl. Without good satellite imagery we would never had known she existed. It's possible the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane had a small signature that would have been picked up on satellite imagery today and models would have run and hopefully one of them would have caught the Rapid Intensification and given South Florida a bigger heads up than we had in 1935. I have always had problems believing the plot line that it just POPPED UP OUTTA NOWHERE. It was a very small system and it rapidly intensified as small systems are want to do. Beryl always had a LLCC and it also had a mid level that hung behind that became more noticeable as it fell apart. Naked swirls are beautiful because you can see the bones of it suddenly. Not going to show nudes of Marilyn Monroe but you get the idea.  Go back into my old blog on Beryl and you will see what I am talking about. 

Time will tell.
I would not count X Beryl out.
Beryl could make a come back.
I kind of have this running in my head...
.... more than any one model.


Moving on... 

In the Pacific there is Maria.
That name.
Retire it please.
And every variation of MARY.
(love the name Mary.
My Grandma was named Mary.
.... fill in the blank...
(I won't say it Fishing is already laughing)

Easy to see isn't she.
Oddly off the bump of China...
..that looks like Chris off the Carolinas.
Jim Edds who I consider a friend is there.
You can follow him on Twitter.
He does a great job.
A very sweet man.

@ExtremeStorms  on Twitter

Track and Maria below.

Way better than the five day cone five days ago.
Proving the point for all basins.
Better to be the center of the 5 day cone...
...than the 3 day cone.
Because 5 days ago Shanghai was the center of the cone.

This is pretty much my home screen these days.
My youngest son is in China today.
Hopefully on a train to Beijing from Shanghai.
I'm not sure where my oldest son is..
..NYC I think this week.
 In a recording studio probably.
My life gets more interesting over time.
I'm making a Mango Smoothie for lunch.

Elsewhere.... life goes on in the tropics.
Waves roll off of Africa.
Areas despite water temps are favorable.
Early this year.
Will winter come early this year I wonder?

I'm adding this and then I'm done for now. I do this because I love it. I am a writer. My work has been published in many places and I have collaborated both on tropical research :) as well as other literary works in ways I will not explain. It's my story to tell and I'm not telling it. I'm just a girl who loves weather and maps and writing. I love my family, I love my friends and I love communicating. If anything I write or put out here helps someone to better understand a storm or be less afraid of being in the cone or gives them tips to prepare for a hurricane zooming to their home than I left the world a better place and my job here was done well. I'm kind of like a storm in ways. I've been stalked in an oddly good way much like a long tracking Cape Verde Hurricane that provided much enjoyable tracking over a long time and then was researched way after it was gone off the maps. 

When I was little I didn't really understand hurricanes, but I knew I was intrigued by them. I had this odd theory that after hurricanes like Donna moved off to Europe they spent their winters there and then circled back to come across the Atlantic Ocean again during Hurricane Season.  I was really, really young. My mother explained no that was not how it happened and went out and got me a tracking map from the local gas station or grocery store and showed me how to track hurricanes. My neighbor was a hurricane hunter, no wait his mother lived next door and his black and white photographs adorned her walls as she was extremely proud of him. In High School I tracked with my friend whose father was a navigator on the hurricane hunter planes. I dated a guy who worked at the NHC as an Intern in his spare time while keeping his GPA way above 4.0. I know because my best friend kept track of his GPA ...why I don't know. She was Salutatorian of her High School Class graduating a year before me leaving me in charge of the remnants of our high school click. Always beware of Salutatorians as they usually miss the Valedictorian status because while they are keeping their grade point averages up as they often are more socially active in other ways .... who knows; just a theory.  Now days they are doing away with their speeches as everyone is on a level playing field but some people just have a higher GPA. Okay, I remember my best friend Linda enjoyed writing that speech but she was a writer. I drove my counselor crazy as she pushed me to get better grades than I was already getting while being extremely socially active and being officer of a few clubs. I asked her why I should try to get better grades when I had great grades already while doing not studying that hard and doing everything else. She shook her head and walked away rolling her eyes. I get it. I roll my eyes a lot now. Probably explains my headaches I've had since I was about 17. That never changed. 

So..........if you are here still reading this Thank You. It's apparent to me that blogs are going the way of the AOL Chat Rooms and Message Boards and I have checked Snapchat every few photos I posted to see if my younger son has checked in. I know I can't eat a good sushi roll without sending a Snap to my youngest daughter....  If I type in "INS" into my browser it takes me to my son's Instagram account. He's a great photographer but he's finishing a Masters in Architecture. My older son is in the music and graphics business; he produces Jewish Music and manages artists and their concerts they give around the world. His watch is often set to Miami time and "Benny Time" which will make sense if you are a Jewish Music fan.  Both my children's grandmothers were artists. Art is big in my family. I write. I dance. I watch hurricanes and love maps. My name is Bobbi. What's yours?

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I don't know what makes people today argue so much that they need to take a side vs just discuss different aspects of meteorology and life. Whether it's politics or models or late night arguing on weather they are always arguing. I mentioned to someone once I like Cinnamon Gum and he responded "OH I like Peppermint" and he does popping peppermint candy in his mouth. I like Cinnamon. It sounds good. Cinnamon like an Edna Ferber Novel of a different name and a cute boy I liked used to run across the street, leaving the class while the teacher was out racing across the street not getting caught to buy me cinnamon tooth picks at Dixie Rangers Bike Shop (long story) before getting back in class without getting caught. It was a writing class. And the beat goes on... 


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At 11:48 AM, Blogger SJL said...

As always such a down to earth way of communicating such a complex subject as this is. Much gratitude from Texas, AOL Chat or not I tell you what! I understand though and may your writing skills better reach the masses somehow.

At 12:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, I've got a hurricane and a himicane plan! I'm staying put....unless the forecast is for the thing to stall or move 1 or 2 miles per hour! Everybody in town knows the most damage from a hurricane occurs within 3 miles of the beach and if the hurricane stalls and dumps 20 inches of rain on you! The average hurricane moves 10-20 miles per hr. If that's the case, it comes and goes pretty fast! Hurricane evacuations are costly and stressful, to say the least! If your on high ground and not near the shore, many times waiting it out is your best bet! Sure, almost always gonna lose power, but that can be a good thing! Gets you off the internet, cell phones and cable tv for a couple of days!


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