Tropics Quiet Today. Storms in the South, Tornado Warnings But Not TS Barry. Back From Vacation in Crown Heights. What is Crown Heights? Why You Should Visit NY in June...and WHAT IS AN INVEST REALLY?

Officially nothing is going on in the tropics today.

Invest 91L is no more.

Despite giving it way too much of a chance.

The NHC pulled the plug.

I'm putting that picture in motion below 

You can see it's remnant moisture causing problems.

I want to draw your attention to this flare up below.

This area and further to the East will flare up often today.

It's the moisture that was associated with 91L...

...mixing it up with a frontal boundary.

This was and is the real concern.

Flooding.

Torrential rains.

Tornadoes.

Too much can be a disaster.

Not enough can destroy crops.

Kind of a lesson in life on finding a balance.

We can learn much from studying meteorology.

I'm back from vacation.

It was a hectic, crazy good trip.

Not a lot of down time but found some anyway.

You gotta grab those moments while you can.

More on that later ;)

I'm going to talk tropical first.

Personal later.

Feel free to just do the weather....

...or stick around for the rest of what's on the menu.

What is an INVEST?

Please read and remember. 

Thank you!

What I really want to convey here about Invest 91L is that it actually did what most areas of tropical moisture do and that is they drift along with the lower level winds towards some coastline and because either one center could not win out over the competing centers or conditions were not favorable enough they do not develop and they end up as rain over the heartland or low lands of the Carolinas and Georgia or Louisiana. That really is the way of the world. Years ago they were called "tropical disturbances" meaning there was a disturbance in the force in the tropics ... to be plain and a bit silly but very honest. Then we went through a period of naming various areas or tropical waves as an Invest and numbering them and studying them to see if they did or didn't develop. This was not exactly a clandestine thing but it was known in meteorological circles. Somewhere along the line they went public with a flurry of fantastic graphics on TWC or your local TV news and online in the meteorological community. Social media amped up the expectations tremendously. The National Hurricane Center obviously saw it as a tool to remind people it's the Hurricane Season and tropical development could come from this little piggy or that little piggy and somewhere a poor girl seemingly destined to sweep her stepmother's home could turn into Cinderella. Seriously it's that basic and I want people to understand as the season progresses an INVEST has NO CENTER, no real CIRCULATION and winds not of any tropical designation. So what does an Invest have? Rain that has lingered or sometimes it's simply an area with very little rain but model support as models (computer programs) indicated that an area of low pressure could form over such and such a place and deserve the designation of Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm or Hurricane. The problem here is that since they give it a designation of Invest with a number it is raised to real status and it is not... it's like saying wood that could have been made to build Pinocchio was actually Pinocchio from day one when in fact it was most likely going to be used to build a bench but who knows a good carpenter might have built something bigger than a bench. Not to take away from benches that give us all a place to rest...

So yes I will talk on Invests and discuss their potential for Barry or Chantal but we may go through a whole bunch of them with no name given or the next one may form from a stalled out frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico that may develop a center as barometric pressure lowers and winds begin to pick up and circulate enough for the National Hurricane Center to designate it a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. It is very possible that could happen before the month of June ends. That is what we call foreshadowing as models are doing their thing again showing an area that may be ripe for development. And again it's a good time to look at the areas of development most frequently popular in June and that is.... the Gulf of Mexico and along the SE coast. The frenzy reminds me of that scene from Fantasy Island years ago. 

Compare and contrast June with October.

While the Central American Gyre is a thing.

It more frequently produces storms later in the season.

October is prime time for the CAG.

But that region does produce in June and July sometimes.

It's possible a disturbance can form and get up into the prime region.

And that is what models were indicating with Invest 91L.

Normally it would have developed in the EPAC.

The fact that it didn't and lingered over Central America.

And could not pull it together in the SW Carib...

..... was a pretty good sign it was just an Invest.

But the regime at the NHC this year seems to rely on models...

...more than other teams have and it is what it is.

Subtropical Storm Andrea didn't last as long as Invests 91L

Nuff said.

To read more on what a CAG is read the link below.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/research_cag.php

For those who like to read and if you are here you most likely do.

Get used to reading the actual Tropical Weather Discussion.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

You will see how many areas are being monitored for development.

When models begin to favor one area..........

...... it may become an Invest.

An area merely being watched and investigated for development.

Find a balance again between speculation and reality.

Find sources you trust over time.

Sources you have learned to trust over time.

Keep it in perspective but pay attention.

That's it mostly for the weather part of today's blog.

The rest explains where I have been.

And is a good primer for what is Crown Heights.

A place I mention often and just got back from....

Remember his is a blog... an online diary of sorts.

When there's a hurricane out there it's ALL weather ...

....but there is no hurricane today so blogging and having fun.

On a personal level ... hi there :) I'm back from vacation in New York where we went for a wedding and to see two of my daughters and do some shopping for things you can only really get in New York. Amazon is great but it's not the same as actually walking through the Louvre and it's much more fun to wander around and pick things out .... feel some cool air on a sunny day and I gotta tell you generally there is no finer place to be than New York in June. I mean it inspired a song! You can't go wrong going to New York in June. The weather is about as good as it gets !

I was also in upstate New York and I was on the road that goes back and forth from Monsey NY across the river down through Manhattan any which way Waze takes you to get across the other river into Brooklyn because Manhattan is really an island! My other daughter lives in the Flatbush area of New York and we spent a lot of time in Boro Park and Crown Heights. As you know from reading this blog I lived in Crown Heights, I went to school in Crown Heights and it's a sort of spiritual home that nourishes me as much as the incredible food in all the new trendy restaurants does as somehow Crown Heights became trendy. It's a beautiful neighbor that finds a balance for many cultures that call it home. 

Years ago it was a nice, new suburb predominately Jewish built when the subway stop on Kingston Avenue and Eastern Parkway opened up that part of what had previously been a bucolic area that fast evolved into an neighborhood of nice homes on shaded streets for young families who were moving away from the Lower East Side. Over time many Caribbean Island families moved into Crown Heights and found it also a beautiful place with nice homes, brownstones, parks and shaded streets. At some point Chabad Lubavitch moved into Crown Heights after the previous Lubavitcher Rebbe Rabbi Joseph I. Schneerson  made it his home and in doing so made it World Chabad Headquarters. Time went by and as the older Jewish population died out a young vibrant Chabad community evolved as many come from all over the world to study and live there for a while before either finding a home there permanently or going out somewhere into the world to take a little bit of Crown Heights with them where ever they live and often return "home" to touch home base as I did the last few days.

Oh did I mention the Dodgers used to play in Crown Heights? You might want to do a little bit of reading up on the history of Brooklyn ...

There's a beauty and a balance to Crown Heights where tree lined streets shade your walk through neighborhoods where people grown gardens and roses bloom in June. Now days there are street fairs, parades of all kinds and a farmers market in a park. People live together in balance in this sweet space where many feel at home and recently it's even become a bit of a tourist attraction. I feel like I'm in Key West with people doing walking tours with tourists from more cultures than I can even try and list here. I even stood on a corner to see what the guy was saying but really time moves fast in a New York minute so I moved on to meet my husband for coffee and a doughnut at Gombo's Bakery. It's so trendy in Crown Heights we now have outdoor patios to eat and enjoy the food and the view. Who knew?

Basil Restaurant NY. Awesomeness.

If you don't believe me.....

...follow them on Instagram ;)

https://www.instagram.com/basil_nyc/?hl=en

Pimento Grilled Cheese with Bourbon Onions.

Fries with cheese and truffle mayo.

Huge portions.

Oh my gosh....

Showing two YouTube videos that show the different sides of Crown Heights but they both show the enjoyment people have of living there and why it's a much loved neighborhood. As y'all know I love fashion so let's start there.

Another view of Lubavitch and Crown Heights.

And some blend the two and still call it home.

It's a big world.

Embrace what you love.

Enjoy what you love.

Accept others with love.

Wasn't this trip inspirational for me?

That's it.

I'm back recuperating from too much dancing....

... too much walking (NY...) and too much food.

Walking from the wedding party venue...

...to the wedding site on Eastern Parkway at 770 in high heels.

And then back again for dancing.....

Yeah I'm resting today :)

I do love Crown Heights :) as you can tell.

Note Crown HEIGHTS has HILLS.

I'm just a bit tired today.

We got back around 1 AM .... 

Catching up on what's going on in the tropics.

Resting today.

Writing long obviously.

Home in Carolina.

Not expecting much to develop in the next few days.

So enjoy the long blog if you read the whole thing.

And I'm home loving the posts of my friends.

Catching up.

Is Mike back from his cruise?

Wonder if either of us got any rest.

Most of us know nothing is happening for a while.

So we take our trips in early June.

June too soon for hurricanes..........

.........but usually a good time for a vacation!

Another best friend is in Myrtle Beach this week...

If you want to enjoy New York in June.

You might want to read up on some history.

I love to read up on history before a trip...

Good site below.

http://www.boweryboyshistory.com/2015/04/janes-walk-2015-

ten-recommended-free-tours-plus-over-100-more.html

Yes, Crown Heights was once  new.... newly built.

A subdivision back in the early 1920s.

Kind of a boom town in it's way.

Check out the Model T Ford!

Not many trees there yet.

Lot's now.

And that's Montgomery Street not Eastern Parkway.

Brooklyn has these big Parkway type streets.

Ocean Parkway, Eastern Parkway.

People walk... sit on benches.

Enjoy nature that is abundant in Brooklyn.

Did I mention Prospect Park nearby?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_Park_(Brooklyn)

We stopped in Baltimore to see my mother-in-law.

To shop for Shavous and have lunch at KB Grill.

Really good hambuhttp://kosher-bite.com/about-us.html

Bought everything but some fresh fruit and flowers.

Trader Joes tomorrow.

Fruit and flowers!!

(Bought cheesecake at 7 Mile Market...)

https://www.chabad.org/recipes/recipe_cdo/aid/32627/jewish/Shavuot-Recipes.htm

So that's it.

Keep watching the tropics.

Do what you love....

Show love, feel love.

And make sure there's no tornado warning...

...from the remnants of Invest 91L

New Orleans currently has a Tornado Warning....

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

For fast updates in real time.

Ps. To be honest yes we love Eastern Parkway so much we take wedding pictures there and film CD covers there as well.  Okay my son helped make this video and he's hidden in there in a few places and it's one of my favorites so you get the idea... the feel.... the beauty and joy of what it is for me to be there, wander through the Jewish Bookstore, pray at 770 the synagogue, buy my best friend a few presents which I must remember to send out tomorrow and .... be totally exhausted from a huge wedding that went on for hours with much dancing, song, food, music and happy memories. Make your own memories, June is running out... go enjoy New York in June. 

I40 Winter Storm.... From TX/OK to NC Coast ...the Storm Does a Road Trip East Bound. Who Gets What? No One is Sure....

The players are visible on the loop above.

Note everything is East Bound....

High pressure pushing down from the North

Moisture piling in from the South.

And the Road Map is along Interstate 40.

I40 goes from NC to California.

Though in NC it's a major artery West to East.

Or East to West depending where you're going.

Takes a little dip down towards the SE to Wilmington.

This was the road of the North Carolina.

If you drove up to the mountains....

..... or you drove down to the sea.

Old timers know this road like the back of their hand.

It cuts straight across Oklahoma like a Mason Dixie Line.

Further to the North it's more like Kansas.

Further to the South it's more like Texas.

Arkansas.... Tennessee 

Then the beautiful North Carolina highlands.

The map above doesn't do the view justice but....

...it gets you where you are going.

A nice video shows you the view well ....

...way better than I can tell ya

Note the elevation...

(give it a few minutes to get going)

Love movies that show maps....

This picture shows you the story here...

Elevation!

Mountains...

The further up in elevation....

...the more chance you get of snow!

www.spaghettimodels.com

Above is a 5 day forecast for snow.

I added the 24 hour one in today.

Compare and contrast.

Note two things....

Snow accumulations aren't high further West.

But as it crosses the mountains...snow.

Snow forecast like the red spot on Jupiter over NC

But who gets exactly what?

Still hard to tell.

Evolves in real time.

Snow storms are wonderfully hard to forecast.

A Cape Verde Hurricane is way easier.

Those are some big mountains.

They could get a big snow storm.

It's also possible the big snow totals are to the East.

Winston Salem or Greensboro could get a lot.

Raleigh? Really no one is sure.

No one here ever is..

I show Raleigh as it's an iffy area.

And I live here.

Charlotte also is iffy as to the exact impact.

NWS above.

Accuweather below.

Waiting to see what will happen.

Days ago I posted this map on Twitter

What I was pointing out was the actual snow...

...and the system forming off the coast.

The low tightening up.

Few were talking on that.

DaBuh watches surf and weather.

He saw it coming and posted this today.

See it IS about the Low in the GOM.

Sitting near where Michael made landfall.

Has that been a magnet spot this year or what?

They are getting slammed with rain along the coast...

...and the winter storm to the North.

I10 gets rain.

I40 gets winter weather of some sort...

Still evolving in real time.

As the moisture in the GOM feeds the storm.

As the storm is moving East.

So many moving parts.

Showing these model pages from www.windy.com

Lot's of layers to play with there.

Saturday on the EURO...

Moisture moving in from the GOM.

Winter Weather moving in...

Over the mountains....

filling in the Foothills.

Piedmont Crescent gets a winter storm.

Yesterday's post explains the Piedmont Crescent.

Charlotte to Raleigh.

Check that post out later ..

Euro shows snow over NC.

Winter weather of various types.

Snow. Sleet. Freezing Rain maybe..

Below on  Sunday on the GFS moisture feeds in..

Snow takes a road trip on I40 East.

Snow!

Note the GFS has snow on Monday for Raleigh.

  

Much aligned GFS shown above.

See the snow over NC?

See the storm forming off the coast?

Could the snow really stop at the VA border?

Just a model..

Let's talk about the NAM.

Adding this in while editing.

Their discussion mirrors my thoughts.

And they ate two of the best especially in NC.

I'm ending this model discussion with the NAM.

Short term modeling.

Great image below.

Shows the players.

Note the moisture feed coming in from the GOM.

This is what Dabuh is watching.

Storm forming OFF the coast.

Transfer of energy.

Snow and Wintry Mix over Carolinas.

This is our end game.

How close to the coast will winter weather get?

Could Wilmington and New Bern see snow flakes?

Flurries falling?

Will this become an ICE STORM not a Snow storm?

That possibility is there for some...

TWC below....

Nice boots.

Note they say "Snow and Ice"

What is the bottom line here?

Travel will be treacherous on I40

Travel across parts of the South is a problem.

Whether you are driving from Atlanta to Charlotte..

....or Atlanta to Raleigh.

Maybe just don't.

Hunker down if you can.

Ride this out where you are...

Flights will be cancelled if you are flying..

Carefully consider your options if you are traveling.

I'm not traveling.

I'm hunkering down and waiting to see what I get.

I'll update at the top later today.

When the next models come in...

...and after we see the storm as it's evolving.

After I go shopping while I can...

Bread, Eggs, Coca Cola.

Still have water from Hurricane Season ;)

So far it slammed California with rain and mud.

Doing Texas from Amarillo to Lubbock ...

It's flirting with Oklahoma.

Stay tuned.

Winter Storms form and evolve in real time.

No real cones....

....just lots of hype and wishing.

Wishing it doesn't snow...

and wishing it snows and snows.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Leaving this here. I have a friend who loves Asheville, loves snow and loves the piano.

I suppose if you watch this video you can understand why....   hoping to see some in Raleigh.

Death Toll Rising Like the Flood Waters. Now at 39. Where Will It Be Tomorrow? If You See A Barricade Bless the Person That Put It There and TURN AROUND. Don't Drown Please.

That's a new river in North Carolina.

It's called I-40

It's closed.

Parts of I-95 are closed in the Carolinas today.

If you are traveling be very careful.

And do NOT go around a barricade!

Follow the detour carefully!

I'm going to keep this short today as I have many things to do as tomorrow is Yom Kippur and in truth I'm a bit tired and do not want to go long as I have done that enough with Florence. I would rather write about the beauties of North Carolina and Florida and show the beautiful side of the world but today there's a muddy grimy side of the world in parts of North Carolina where the flood waters have not yet crested nor receded. They will as that is the nature of time, you just have to wait for the tide to turn.

Some kind soul drove a truck load of kosher chicken down to North Carolina from New York so that people in Wilmington would have food for the upcoming holidays, however three miles away from getting into the city they were turned away. Such a nice gesture and but the roads in were still closed and they were told to go elsewhere ...so they did and the truck of chickens ready to be cooked for the holidays are now being cooked inland and hopefully they will get there in time to those who want some measure of normal in a world that is not normal. That is the nature of life on days that are celebrated whether the weather cooperates or not. I remember a few days after Andrew a lady drove by our street with a car filled with melting bags of ice from Palm Beach. The roads into Miami Beach were closed, but she knew the secret back road trick the locals knew taking A1A instead of going across the closed causeways. She gave us and our neighbors a bag of ice which was wonderful. More so wonderful that someone took the time to load up her car and drive it down to places where ice was needed. Sometimes in life it comes down to one person making a difference and turning your life around. I never knew who to say thank you to but saying thanks now. Well we told her thanks... but at the time "thank you so much" seemed like all we could do. Looking back it always blows me away. There was no flooding in Miami Beach, but the city wanted to keep people who were just curious what happened from going in and looking around while clean up crews were out and about trying to clean up and make it safe again for those of us who lived there. I'm sure they were worried on looters and other problems as well but flooding was not a problem in Hurricane Andrew, flooding is the problem in North Carolina from Florence.

My main message here today is this one. If someone sees a barricade that people had to go out in hurricane conditions and rising water to put there for your safety, turn around and do not drive around the barricade. Several of the deaths attributed to Florence in this storm were because people drove around a barricade thinking they would be fine or thinking what I don't know. People make stupid mistakes, that's why we call them "stupid mistakes" and usually they are just awkwardly stupid like wearing the wrong outfit or telling a roomful of people while drunk what you really think of them at a wedding or losing the wedding ring on the way to the chapel. Feel free to define "stupid mistakes" in your own way but way too often they are life altering and sometimes sadly life ending. A beautiful little child not yet a year old died because for some reason.....his mother drove around a barricade and the surging water on the street slammed her vehicle into a tree and by the time she got him out of his car seat the water had risen and she was unable to hold onto him and he floated away. Near that same area an older man, maybe 83 or 88 years old, drove around a barricade and the same thing happened and he died as well.

If flooding can lift a train off it's track and demolish the tracks... think what it will do to your vehicle and anyone in the car with you at the time. Think what it will do with you. If that isn't clear enough know there are big snakes in flood waters... maybe that will scare you more than a big yellow barricade. You know who I feel most sorry for? The poor workers who risked their lives putting out barricades as the water was rising in a storm to make sure no one would be hurt and then they hear that someone went around the barricade and died. After Matthew there was a big outcry that roads were not barricaded... people got off of I-95 and I-40 and drove down roads that their GPS showed them were there and they ended up being swept away by a strong current and died. North Carolina both locally and on a state level tried very hard this time around to barricade as many roads as possible yet.. people drove around the barricades.  I don't know what more we can do. And in truth .. being a person I know this.. people do stupid things and made rash decisions and sometimes you can't take those rash decision back.

So leaving you with images from North Carolina and the power of water. Perhaps we need to EDUCATE people less on Hurricanes and more on Flooding Dangers. Maybe we need to WARN people more about the flooding dangers and tornado dangers on the main page of the National Hurricane Center rather than just showing a cone with a line down the middle and tell people not to concentrate on the middle of the cone. It's not just about a cone or an eye or the small band of near hurricane force winds swirling around in the eye more often than not it's about the flooding, the storm surge and the tornadoes in the bands far away from the eye in the center of the cone. Nuff said. Look at the pictures please.  Pass this message on to someone who you think may benefit from thinking about driving around a barricade or following the advice to "just stay home" and "hunker down somewhere safe" until the storm has passed and the waters have receded.

Mike showed a close up today of the train tracks.

The train in the picture on the right above.

Next to the picture of the baby boy who died.

IF water can do that to a train....

...what will it do to you and your loved ones in a car?

Mangled train tracks ripped from the ground...

... the power of surging, rising water..

 A view from the air... 

Twisted and ripped away from the rest of the train.

Why did the train think it was okay to go there?

I wonder on that.

A bad decision they can't take back.

A freight train but still...

Look at that ... crazy.

Two pictures side by side.

The bridge if it stands...

..will have to be inspected.

Probably repaired.

That's if it doesn't wash away...

Death toll keeps rising too.

Same picture....

Now a day later it's 32 people that have died.

There were tornadoes in Virginia yesterday.

As Florence moved North.

One of Mike's loyal fans...

..sent him this picture I believe from a plane.

Later in the video you can see it touch down.

Mike is an awesome part of the chain...

..delivering valuable information always.

Maybe he can get the point across better in his own way..

...then many on air can do. 

Or the government agencies that are trying...

I'm sorry you can't drive on I-40.

It is a river right now.

That's I-40

No way to get to school yesterday...

..Durham decided to have school that day.

 I wonder which weather sources told them that would be okay.

And lastly.....this is going on and on on and on in NC.

Flooded homes adrift from their neighbors in a sea of water. 

Do you stay? Do you go?

Will the water recede?

Many left... 

...many cannot get back.

There are so many helping in the rescues.

People in the Carolinas don't complain so much.

They reach out and help their neighbors.

It's one thing that's good in this I'll say.

This image posted by Matt Drudge says much.

Shows how fragile many of us are...

Older people, sick people.

Young people making stupid mistakes.

Old people making errors of judgement.

It's all the same.

Don't blame them.

Help them.

Learn for the future.

If you see a barricade ... STOP!

Turn around don't drown.

If you hunkered down for the storm..

stay there until it's safe to go back.

And that's life here today from Carolina.
Both Carolinas.

We really are one Carolina.

And it's flooding in South Carolina too.

This is from Dillon South Carolina below.

There were no evacuation warnings in Dillon.

Just saying.

Dillon is near South of the Border.

If you remember I wrote about it much in the blog.

I said Florence was going there.

I was worried about those parts of SC.

Florence was definitely going there.

Maybe we focus too much on landfall?

You think?

Reporters work hard to bring you the story.

IF the road is out.

Take the detour.

Follow the rules.

Stay safe.

With prayers for everyone today everywhere.

But especially in the Carolinas.

And I'll give charity today as well.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter..

Ps... Pass this on to anyone you think needs to know.

Stay safe ... somewhere someone loves you.