Updated!! Tropics on Friday Going into A Summer Weekend. 96L Chances Being Lowered Day By Day. Some Models Tho Won't Let Go... X95L Flaring up as it Merges with the Front. Pets and Hurricanes. Bobbi Bought a Beta .... Pray for It!

8 PM Update.
Rain with thunder in Raleigh.
Seriously I know you want to know about 96L
Still there.

In the 2 day low expectations.
In the 5 day still expecting it could develop.



Note the moisture feed from X95L is amping up the SE rain.



So the rain in Raleigh was tropically topical.
And wow convection by PR but not 96L...
96L has developed two small orange eyes.

It's something........

I'll update Saturday evening.


As of earlier today
If you didn't read please keep reading...

96L is still there.
But not expected to be a hurricane down the road.
Things can change.
But today it's trying to hang onto Invest status.
Friday Afternoon it had 40% chances ...

Before going forward I want to backtrack a bit to yesterday when I wrote about the trouble with long term models regarding tropical waves that haven't developed, yet models develop them pushing the buttons for more careful surveillance. I pointed out that despite it looking like a healthy wave it was moving into an area where shear seemed strong and it seemed a disconnect with the models that were Gung Ho and possibly is why the EURO was slow to go on board the 96L Express.  You can go back to yesterday's blog and scroll way down but I made a screenshot for you to make it easier.  Note there's a red river of shear there that 96L would have to transverse to get to where it was supposed to blow up into a hurricane.

Bottom image shows gold and orange.

Shear there.

And the High being very strong as shown below...

...in Cranky's excellent illustration.

Made me wonder on the problem.

Sometimes in the right spot....

A wave can become ventilated and intensify.

But how it does so with that sort of pressure...

high pressure riding it the whole way.

Then it has to cross shear?

To be fair it wasn't just the GFS.

Other models intensified it.

To add to this quandary ...

Normally models begin to lose a wave ...

...if conditions are poor and it's bound to unravel.

Yet even today some models take it to TS status.

While none are screaming hurricane.

They are still suggesting Tropical Storm.

That could change later today.

Models change in real time...

Models are not crystal balls.

They are not psychics.

They take data (that changes in real time)

And they offer solutions.

So where are we currently?

Friday Afternoon.

NHC sticks with 40% in 5 days for 96L

And when they say the next 5 days.

I believe they mean on day 4 going into 5.

Conditions currently hostile.

Shear is there as explained below.

A huge high pressing down on it... 

...giving it little breathing room.

Not looking good.

By the way 95L was written off the soap opera.

It's still kicking up more actual weather than 96L.

But it's future chance of winning an Emmy are gone.

Go figure it has all the convection 96L is lacking.

But the models hate it.

The front ate it.

Fronts in August.

Hmnnn......

Note 96L was briefly on a leash to the area to it's NW

Sometimes this gets interesting.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+

shtml/021058_MIATWDAT.shtml?

The link above is to Tropical Atlantic Discussion put out by the NHC. If you ever wonder what those odd areas are that no one is talking about you use this link and it familiarizes you with the coming and going of different characters on our tropical soap opera. Seriously this time of year it feels like a fledgling soap trying to gain an audience, but by the end of August it ramps up to Sweeps Week and if you ever watched General Hospital or One Life to Live (may it rest in peace if no one can bring it back...) you totally understand this example. 

Our usual characters are shown below.

More will be introduced soon off of Africa.

And possibly closer in .....

...because things to pop up often known as home grown.

Center stage the white blue bits of clouds is 96L

So the question is when it gets to near the islands.

Where that ball of convection is...

Will it come to life as some models suggest?

That's the question on the table today.

Meanwhile note the convection over Florida is firing up.

And it's merging with a frontal trough of sorts.

That's been the pattern this season.

It's just rain today.

Down the road it could be a hurricane.

Picture some hurricane down in the Caribbean.

Down near Cuba or the Yucatan.

Being pulled North by an approaching front.

A cross between Wilma and Sandy.

Could happen.

So don't write off this season because it's quiet.

It's usually quiet until around August 12th...

Mid August things look better.

August 24th through the 26th usually it comes alive.

Every year is different depending on the set up.

Meanwhile the NHC will follow the models.

They will introduce Invests.

When there is an Invest I'll cover it more.

I'm known as "not a model hugger"

I like them.... I just wouldn't marry them yet.

They are exciting and stimulating.

Kind of like a hyper, cute terrier or poodle.

My mother had a poodle once.

My boyfriend' hated it.

My friends thought it was eccentric.

My friends were right.

My mother was proud it had a pedigree...

Some of these waves roll off Africa with a pedigree.

Good looks, convection, nice bones.

And then they meet the huge High.

SAL.

We will talk about King Tutt on Sunday...

And a cute mutt often steals the show close in.

You know like that pooch you found on a cold night.

Lost by the railroad tracks near the house.

That mutt becomes your best friend.

So much for a pedigree.

So much for models.

If you have a pet.

You need to figure it into your hurricane plans.

Pet Supermarket has a good guide.

 https://www.wjhg.com/video?vid=513432832

I'll be back on Sunday.

Nothing is expected to develop before then.

Watch your local weather.

Summer storms pop up fast.

Flash flooding happens.

Stay tuned.

Have a great weekend.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... I bought a Beta... pray for it.

Yes... Bobbi bought a beta...  been a while.

I'm not great with them and haven't had one in a while.

It's reddish. just pray...