Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Updated 2 PM. Models Flip Flopping (no surprise there...)August 1st. Models Wake Up - 96L Poised to be Chantal. (The Problem with Long Range Models) X95L Off S FL Coast Kicking Up RAIN


First off remnants of 95L just offshore.
A ball of convection but not expected to develop.
Zero chances from NHC.

Below is 96L
Still at 70% over the 5 day period.
If models continue to back off....
...they may lower this a bit soon.


Again this was supposed to develop later not sooner.
It was never expected to develop in the short term.
But models have been arguing over which way to go with it.

Good comment online.
What we are all wondering.


Generally I take the long view and watch the loops.
When I said "the problem with long range models"
That was foreshadowing.
As what the models give on Wednesday Night........
....they take back often on Thursday morning.

The problem with long range models is they are long range.
No center there.... no recon. 
They take wild stabs in the dark trying to pin down the track.
They get the track better than the intensity.

The GFS has backed off on it's Gung Ho hurricane off the E Coast.
The Euro steadily ignores development.

Note the GFS below.


It still shows "something"
But nothing organized.

The Euro still shows nothing.


Same day, same place.
Different solutions offered.


Before above.
Note the dry high pushing down on 96L

Below is after.
Dry as a bone.
Showing her bones.


Now let's look at the WV Image.



96L is cruising into a dry atmosphere.
Note waves to the East have color....
...once they make it West they don't.

This is typical.

It's August 1st.
You need lots of patience when tracking storms.
But you know that I'm sure.
Stay tuned for more.... 
models, drama and discussion.


There is a trench of dry air.
If it can get up there...
..where convection is flaring.
Just NE of the Islands.
It has a chance.

Stay tuned and keep praying it avoids the islands.
I'll be back if and when things change.

... Keep reading if you haven't done so already.
As I said earlier it would have to fight dry air.
Possibly that's what the EURO was seeing....
...that the GFS wasn't seeing.

???
:)
Keep watching.

Again note what I said.


Again there is a huge dry high to the North of 96L
It's suppressing it, sucking the moisture out of it.
Can 96L get to friendlier water?

Remember one thing!
If 96L stays weak it goes West ...
It gets further to the West.
Goes into the Caribbean.


Always watch the trends.
The trend is weak and to the West.
If it survives.
It could.
Stay tuned.....

* * * 

From earlier today.



96L forecast to be a tropical depression sooner than later.
Expected to become TS Chantal down the road much later.
Though as always it's far out and models can change.


https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_mlb_anim.gif


I know models show big things for 96L
But X95L is doing it's thing now close in.

Going to be a soggy week ....
..while many wonder on 96L's future track.






X95L is close in near Florida.
Near where many models have 95L/Chantal down the road.
Only a 10% chance of developing but...
... NHC says it has a chance as of 8 AM.








Leaving room here to update at 8 AM.
Old models ... new models.
It's August so get your act together.
Make a plan, buy what you need as you can.
And monitor the tropics!


This was 2 AM.. 70% chances Atlantic Wave.
10% chances 95L for development
100% chances of much rain from 95L
Far out in the Atlantic........
Development seems to be set for 96L
Most models show 96L becoming Chantal.


Remember before we go further ....
What EXISTS NOW is a strong tropical wave.
Invest 96L


If that doesn't get your attention what will?
Possibly the GFS... 
As for the Intensity models Thursday AM


If you throw out the Major Hurricane variable.
Ignore it.
This shows a hurricane is possible.
Yes many models ramp it up down the line.
Not today or tomorrow or even the next day.
Then some models go bonkers on it.
Yesterday people were ordering Fish...
This morning they are ordering Steak.
If you're a vegetarian this is a beautiful Kale salad.

It's going to be a crazy day of people watching models.
So let's begin.
# 1 it's August.
So let's not discount the models.
#2 it feels 3 weeks ahead of schedule.
Prepare accordingly.





The problem here really is this.......
The GFS is hot to trot.
Buying up stickers for it's favorite candidate.
The EURO is not playing along.
It did a while back then it stopped.
What will it do next?

Going to www.windy.com for good visuals.

Always entertaining GFS


The EURO model some call King.


The "King" shows nothing.
I don't like calling it that but many do.

So that's a big disconnect.
Why isn't the EURO seeing Strong Chantal?
Possibly it keeps sniffing the shear there?



None of these models say much other than...
"start your engines"
But it looks like a choppy ride.
Could the Euro be thinking too much shear?
Strong High?

Talking to Cranky last night ....
....he showed me this image.
He said I could use it so I am.
I like it because he sees the High.
A strong high moves your across the Atlantic.
But it also takes a bite out of intensity usually.


He will explain it using many excellent words.
Yes a weakness off shore can exist.
But... look how strong that high is.
Doesn't allow it much breathing room.
It's far down the line so much could change.
4 images from www.tropicaltidbits.com



Note GFS ensemble models show it further off shore.

This is the dance we do every year.
Long range models offer solutions.
Long range models offer possibilities.
Then Long range models reshuffle solutions.
Each model run is a new episode of ...
How the Tropics Turn.

The Bachelorette is over.... 
No spoilers but she Hannah B may be back... 
The Dem Debates part 1 and 2 are done ...
...well this set of debates.
Just like models change so do debates.
And speaking of the debate.
Candidates agreed Climate Change was the #1 isssue.
Yet Climate Change wasn't brought up til the end.
Yeah... not everyone watched the debate.
Some watching Netflix series.
Some watching old episodes of Gomer Pyle on Youtube.
I watched the debates.
I loop the loops.
I watch the models and think "it's too soon to know"
If you're here you're a watcher.

So we have Invest 96L and X95L to watch.

As for X95L approaching downtown Miami..
Okay approaching South Florida.


It may be just rain to you ....
...but it's going to be a mess in the S FL area 




Honestly believing in long term models as a lock in....
...is like thinking what happened last night shows the candidate.
Next model runs flips around a bit.
Early models are like debates a year away from election!



The debates show trends in discussion and popularity.
They show who may or may not be ready for prime time.
But they are as unreliable a predictor as long term models.

But we do love to watch either way.
Well some of us do.
I do.

What really is on the bottom line?

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

I hate to sound like a broken record...
Prepare is the best thing you can do today.
August 1st is here.
Just do it.


Publix shows it all.

Wind, Rain.
Protect your home....
(Stay or go)
First Aid... medicines.

Yes one person needs diapers.
Another person needs depends.
And it depends on YOUR needs what you need.

Again old graphic to remind you.


Above is where X95L was expected to form.

Models for 96L show a continuation of that game plan.
The team of 2019 tropical systems is simple.
Get under the High, move towards the Islands.
Pull North because cold fronts still on the maps.
Threaten the coast with landfalls.
Surprises are always expected.




Above is the GFS Thursday Morning.... 
...but that's stronger than inhaling Espresso brewing.
Monitor it ... that's the point here.
Watch Cantore on air.....on the beach.
Watch Mike on Facebook Live.
Go about your business but monitor it!
That simple and remember it's August.




Be like Susie and know it's time to wake up!
Could this be the year Chantal is retired?
I sure hope not.... it's a pretty name.


Using an old fashioned version.
Because this is an old fashioned hurricane season.
And if you drink... you may need an Old Fashioned!
or a Kale smoothie ;)



GFS or EURO?
Landfall or Fish Storm?
You got options today.
It's luckily still very far away.
Lots more Spaghetti Models down the road.
That I can tell you for sure!!
That and prepare now for hurricane season!
Choose according to your needs what you buy...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Great song. 





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