Snow in Florida. Ice in Lake City Florida. Winter Storm Grayson Forming & On the Move... Up the Coast. Wintercane! Cyclone Bomb (really thank u NY Media) Will Grayson Follow the Forecast Track or Provide Us a Frozen Surprise. WINDS in NY NE Intense... Tropical Storm Force Strength in a Blizzard!

Watch it race up the coast!

Currently the satellite looks like this:

Happening Already...

Today

Day After Tomorrow

The in between tells the story.

How and where this storm evolves.

A storm for all chasers it seems...
Moves FAST like the 1939 Labor Day Hurricane.
Moves in FAST.
Moves out FAST.
Leaves Freezing Cold Behind.

To be honest this is not about chasing it's about watching weather history evolving in real time and watching it frame by frame as we stare at each new satellite image coming in while watching each new model run try to best handle what may be almost impossible. There are so many elements to this storm and the real issue is not being talked about as much as the historic hype that translates to many as simply "SNOW" or "Winter Storm" or for hard core TWC people "Winter Storm Grayson" 

But what are we really looking at? Well in Ocala they are getting cold, nasty rain. Further up the coast in Tally they got snow. There is much ice on some beautiful magniola trees and when you have that much ice on so many dark, heavy green leaves you have the potential for power outages and beautiful much loved trees coming down and bringing the power grid with them. So you have freezing rain, ice, snow and extremely strong winds further up north as this weather bomb transitions into a winter storm with possibly hurricane force winds; tropical storm force winds for sure though they are called Gale Centers up north as they race towards the Canadian Maritimes. I want you to think of the 1938 Hurricane but layer a blizzard on top of that track and with those same effects. Howling winds, stormy surf and speaking of surf they are having a problem along the Low Country beaches this morning as ice is forming along the marsh line and the the tide is coming in.

The word "historic" is bandied about way too often and when a real historic storm comes in people think it is merely hype and nothing more. Some storms are truly historic and this may be the first of several other systems later this winter. In the same way we thought Hurricane Harvey would be "THE STORY OF THE HURRICANE SEASON" we were sadly wrong as each storm laid a different layer of misery down onto the 2017 Hurricane Season. You can follow Michael Ventrice on Twitter if you are on Twitter and if you are not on Twitter ...why aren't you on Twitter? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice His loop shows the size and scope of this epic storm. 

Dabuh provided the music for me this morning.

Helped get me into the mood to blog.

Thank you... as always.

Let's look close up at that image.

What is that?

Looks like shock waves from an earthquake...

...or maybe isobars around a cyclone.

It is our Winter Storm.

Mike aka Spaghetti Models calls it:

"WINTERCANE"

Reed Timmer who does Twisters better than anyone.

Is all over this Winter Storm.

Blizzard Warnings from N FL to Maine..

You don't see that everyday.

So where do we go from here?

This is one of those times it is better to over prepare for an event as temperatures up north are and have been below freezing for days. Add in places Down South as I've lost track of how many hours it has been below freezing in Raleigh but I believe last night we were around 70 hours. It's warmed up to 21 degrees from around 15 at sunrise. We are flirting with above freezing around the middle of the day and I suggest just to be on the safe side "do some shopping for necessities" today rather than hear tomorrow that the forecast was a bust and we got more than side swiped snow flakes falling. If the power goes out... you want to have instant food. When New Bern begins to feel like Boston Harbor you have the potential for continued cold frozen weather and frozen precipitation making it even colder. Snow lays a cold blanket down and adds to the deepening cold temperatures.  Places along the Carolina coast from Elizabeth City to Norfolk and up into parts of Virgnia along the coast will be as frozen as the proverbial Delaware that Washington crossed. That also includes Little Washington a place on my bucket list to visit before I leave North Carolina if I ever actually move away from here.

There's the map above.

Note those thin lines can wiggle each way.

The storm is still forming.

Below are the cities watching carefully.

Again I'm concerned that areas not prone to ice storms are not fully prepared. I'm concerned that areas not used to Black Ice will lead to tragedies as people are unaware what Black Ice really is other than something you hear about on The Weather Channel. And, to be honest most people do not watch TWC anymore and if Roku isn't running warnings and while TED has lots of videos on how to improve our environment and global warming ... alas I could not find any on the dangers of Black Ice in North Florida. Weather is local, climate is global. 

So stay informed on the real time evolution of the storm. Make sure your phone is set to show you updated weather warnings. Hunker down and hope the forecast is not a bust or the brunt of Winter Storm Grayson goes somewhere else.

Savannah currently has ICE.

Freezing RAIN.

Great Lakes Icy.

Rapid Intensification is the problem.

Note PROJECTED track.

Up Close.

Any wiggle west ups the impact inland.

I95 Gonna be a mess.

Stay off the roads.

Hunker down.

NYC media calls it a "Bomb Cyclone"

I know as my daughter asked me what that was.

Just Keep It Simple here..

Strong, explosive, winter storm.

WIND layered on top of winter weather.

Frigid temperatures.

I'll update later.

It's still coming together.

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/nyc-weather-forecast-bomb-cyclone-bring-snow-deeper-freeze

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

;) you were expecting the Beatles?

Nah... watch out for the unexpected with Grayson!

It seems to be over performing so far...

Concerns on the power grid between need for heat and people losing power from the effects of Ice.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/america-s-power-grid-showing-signs-of-strain-amid-brutal-cold

UPDATED!! Cantore in Raleigh. Winter Storm Warnings. This IS Happening. Southern Snow Storm.

Getting closer.

Today has been a crazy day.

I had planned on updating however I had a relative who is okay in the hospital and who was released today so I was a bit distracted. All is good as they say. The shooting at FLL airport near where several of my kids live and use frequently took hours out of my day. Just a person who went "postal" or terrorism? Hard to say but we will know soon enough. What is upsetting and not so surprising is he was not shot or tackled but seems to have given himself up after running out of ammo. So now we know how soft a target FLL really is as well as there maybe changes in security for baggage. Who knows on that one...

As for the Winter Storm warning we had some sleet earlier that turned over to rain and the snow line is close to where I live. Going into Shabbos here so having friends from Canada who live nearby for dinner, they will walk home in snow most likely. 

I went to the convenience store for something special today and teased the owner if he is opening tomorrow. He smiled, looked up at the sky and said "much snow, no guarantee!!" And that seems to be the way it goes here in the Raleigh Triangle. 

I'll be online Saturday at sundown and we will see just how much snow Raleigh actually got, as well as snow reports from other places and my thoughts on the Winter Storm of 2017!

***

Compare and contrast with the earlier radar...

The snow is so close as it slides West to East towards Carolina.

Notice how perfectly it blankets Tennessee.

I've always said NC is really Eastern Tennessee.

This is what I woke up to this morning.

Delta, SW, American all fixing travel problems.

Pretty sure that includes other airlines as well.

It seems weather is never political.

The first test of our new governor is WEATHER.

And for a place that gets snow storms and hurricanes its logical.

Happens in January. More inaugural events put on hold.

My first introduction to Governor Perdue was a snow storm.

I will be mostly discussing Raleigh today.

Yes I'm here and it's Ground Zero for this Winter Storm.

Seems Cantore is in town as well...

Oh my...that moment you realize this IS happening.

Yeah this IS happening.

So I am going to go a bit long here in discussion and short on graphics and weather loops. There will be time to update later today with good satellite imagery. Now is the time to get the message across to people who live in parts of the South that are being impacted directly by this winter storm. Note some areas along the Gulf Coast may be dealing with Ice as they are having freezing rain.

Note the warnings down in Louisiana and Mississippi.

http://www.weather.gov/

Check your specific town.

The main problem here is two fold. One is the possibility of HIGH snow totals in areas that are not used to that much snow. Not because people in the South are "dumb" or "ignorant" of how snow works but because we do not have the infrastructure to handle such an event. So how that plays out is the Governors try their best to keep the main highways plowed and then if and when that is under control they move on to the secondary roads and well for people living in suburbia you hopefully have skis or sleds. Because here in Raleigh where we have little cul de sacs and roads with steep inclines it's going to feel more like a village in Switzerland somewhere than the land of magnolias and tupelo honey if you get my snow drift. We don't get deep snow often that accumulates, nor do we get frigid temperatures that keep it on the ground. Normally it snows, it accumulates a little and the next day it melts. This is SNOW plus Single Digit Temperatures.

STAY OFF THE ROADS! And I mean as soon as possible.  I really hope government jobs are letting people go home early because if everyone leaves downtown Raleigh and NC State at the same time at 5 PM and the system comes in earlier than expected you WILL see more of those iconic "OH MY GOD IT SNOWED IN RALEIGH!!!" pictures.

I say this as the huge traffic jam that occurred the last time we thought the snow was coming in after dark it came in earlier and the rain to sleet to snow storm occurred earlier and my friend from New England who figured she was used to snow was not a match for the steep hill near North Hills and spent hours trying to get home with kids in her car. Snow just doesn't translate as well to this neck of the woods. And yet it's beautiful and gets less dirty and yucky as it does up in the Northern cities and our big tall dark green Southern pines show off beautifully against the white, heavy snow.

So if you haven't been to the store you can try and make that run for another loaf of bread but I doubt they have any left. It took me a long time to figure out why people buy milk here for a snow storm. Coming from Miami we don't buy milk for hurricanes so buying milk before a Natural Weather Disaster seems a bit crazy. My Yankee husband explained to me if the power goes out you stick it in the garage or on the deck. Oh..........right... kind of like living in Siberia where they freeze the milk into wheels leaned against the barn. This really is NOT the Deep South. And it's called NORTH Carolina for a reason.

So ....

1. Get home, hunker down and stay off the roads. Do not make one last run for more pizza or Chik-fil-A really. Gather your troops, kids, friends, pets and hunker down. That said this was a great tweet and so true as power could go out you may want to get some books. You remember books right? The kind you turn the pages and read while lying in bed under multiple blankets.

2. As the temperatures are predicted to be down closer to zero than 32 degrees the snow may stay on the ground for a long time. If you live on a cute little road off the main road you may not be driving anywhere anytime soon. You may want to make a run to the library for a book or two.

3. Make sure you have medication for the next week (worst case scenario) and candles used properly if you aren't the romantic type and not sure how to use them. If you are not a smoker make sure you pick up matches. Do not waste your phone battery by using the flashlight app that is what a real flashlight is for (note to me to check my flashlights...) As for medication you may be able to get to the store when it opens but the trucks may not be able to get there as fast if highways are closed in places to restock the pharmacy. 

4. Keep your phones fully charged at all times. Keep them plugged in as much as possible. That goes for your child's iPad or his Doki watch. Snow storms do sometimes have power outages and people who were sure they could make it to the store for something often get into accidents and hit power poles taking out the whole subdivision when the transformer at the end of the block goes down.  See number 1 and stay home and do not be that person.

5. Take some pictures, enjoy the drama and the moment in time when Raleigh had a gigantic snow storm and well you can always blame it on Jim Cantore!

Stay tuned... going out one more time myself while the weather is a nice balmy 39 degrees because it won't be 39 degrees again until Tuesday if the weather models are correct. Models are the date we take to the prom and climo is the pattern that is almost always right but weather like snow falling, fast happens in real time. Only in the rear view mirror are we sure what happened!

As always time will tell... 

I'll update later today with more information so check back later.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Cantore mentioned something you aren't hearing much about. Along the coast near OBX up to Norfolk they may have blizzard like conditions with high winds.