Phillipe Moving Away From Florida. New Area of Interest in Atlantic. Winter Storm AKA October Gale Messes Up TRAVEL Across NE NYC Many Cities. Check With Your Airlines if Traveling.

11 AM Sunday.
TS Philippe.

"best it has ever has"

Tropical Discussion a bit poetic this morning.

Where's it going?

Cone for TS Philippe

As it sails away.............

Reminds me of a song........

Please keep reading if you have not.

And if you have... well Thank You!

Have a wonderful day...

* * *

8 AM

Two meteorologists are on the set of TWC. The guy points to an area of convection East of Florida not as strong as the larger area of convection closer to Cuba and says "I think this is the area of low pressure that they are tracking this morning...." the female meteorologist next to him has her hands folded and she's nodding in apparent agreement. Both look totally disgusted and  are working hard to try and sound deeply concerned and serious yet there is a touch of sarcasm in his voice.

The truth is the models did show this solution several days ago. A low formed that was broad, then it tightened up closer to Key West and sort of "moved" towards Bimini and then suddenly it disappeared and reappeared up further along the coast near North Florida and the wind gradient tightened up again off the Outer Banks. It wasn't a pretty model as it seemed to miss a few frames and moved around in a Slim Shady sort of way as if it was playing Trick or Treat with meteorologists. Now you see me... now you don't and not a totally clear cut tropical cyclone, yet multiple centers moving around within a larger gyre containing strong Tropical Storm winds...here and there and everywhere.

There he goes....

ENE.... 

Cold Front Dives Down

(look at that cold air in GOM)

Moisture down by Cuba remains.

Philippe...

Here today, everywhere yesterday.

I see a Post Tropical Cyclone Philippe coming.

Tropical Depression Philippe?

A post from Mike's Facebook last night.

Indeed. It's not that hard ... in 2017 it's important.

We have more transparency and honesty is needed.

Once the NHC gets another permanent director who hopefully stays for a while... they need to sit down and have a long Pow Wow and figure out this idea of Potential Tropical Cyclone and Post Tropical Cyclone and set up a way with dealing with scenarios such as this as they are now forecasting Pre Storm Status. It's a good idea if a hurricane is going to form just off shore Alabama headed towards the coast within 12 hours and not such a great idea to name a PTC18 and then feel pressured to put up a name and advisories on a system that never would have been named ten or fifteen years ago before the ever changing rules.  Note when you say "potential" it carries the possibility it won't happen so you're forecast for potential does not have to verify. Old terminology for this was a "tropical disturbance". 

Wind History of TS Philippe Below.

Recently for example we had a "center" they were tracking SW of the Florida Keys...then they found one SW of Key West that continued North (not NE) and then NNE and now ENE (never wanted to do the NE movement) and made it's way across South Florida without officially ever having a "landfall" because basically it pole vaulted over land or never really had a true center to find the point of landfall? You can't make this up....

And, yet........this is a true October Tropical Disturbance merging with a Cold Front during a time of weather transition perfectly in tune with Climatology. 

I wrote this last night in an update to yesterday's blog and I'm putting it here again as it's as basic as it gets.  Why they cannot do this I don't know. I get the need to be accountable with meteorological lingo and try to validate the previous forecast so that it verifies but in the end it leaves the "general public" with a lack of faith in what they are trying to do... that being "warn the public of approaching tropical weather and it's inherent dangers" and it should be in language they understand.

What's more interesting is the topic of "landfall"

Did it or didn't it?

Only the NHC knows...

As if Philippe was a broad Tornadic Tropical Gyre (new term I made it up) and it started off offshore Key West, crossed South Florida and never made "landfall" and you can see this in the loop above. The strong convection that did not have an actual center did stay down over Cuba where their original cone showed Philippe being. A small vortex (additional "center") popped up near Fantasy Fest near Key West, cross the state yet never made landfall. If a tree falls in the forest and there is no one there did it make a sound? It should be interesting to see if they downgrade this in Post Season Analysis. 

Now what you are wondering? I see a downgrade very soon and the NWS is going to have to figure this one out fast as it has the ability to mess up a lot of NFL Football games and make a mess if the weather itself stays close to the coast. In Raleigh it's foggy this morning and warm enough that I didn't even need a jacket despite being officially 61 degrees when I woke up. I went outside, took some pictures of the fog and came inside and nudged the thermostat so that the AC would come on long enough to make the place feel better. Then I opened the sliding glass door outside to let whatever "cool air" is out there inside. October is a nowhere place to be sometimes when it comes to weather prediction. Better to play with pumpkins and dress up in costume popping candy corn in your mouth and debating whether to chew them or let them melt slowly than to try and pin down a tropical system or a cold front this time of year. It's an odd time of year. No one would drink Pumpkin Spice Latte most any other time of year, but in October ... anything goes.

In a world where we can do the most amazing computer graphics showing multiple ideas easily it's hard for 2 dimensional graphics to catch our attention or truly show us everything in one picture. In a world where I "talk" to my younger kids on Snapchat mostly  just using pictures as we convey what we are up to and what we think the other one will think is interesting... we can do so much better than most government agencies do as they are tied down in lots of red tape. And, that's why I get most of my best information online from friends who I trust. These graphics below explain the story of what will evolve and happen easily. All the characters are on the map and the arrows show the plot development. The image below is shown over the radar image.... in 2017 it's easy to do this and private meteorologists do and they do a great job. 

The images below show what Philippe did in South Florida.

Tropical Crime Scene... indeed.

The tropical system known as Philippe did cause damage from multiple possible tornadoes across South Florida.  Heavy rain in some areas and extreme happiness over the cold front pushing down providing cool relief to what was an extremely hot, long summer. Tonight it's forecast to be 55 degrees in South Florida.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/article181495751.html

Have I mentioned Travel Delays?

From the JetBlue site

https://www2.jetblue.com/JetblueAlerts/WeatherUpdate.aspx?intcmp=global_travelalert

Boston is watching ...

Remnants of Philippe and the Cold Front.

Merging together into one heck of a Winter Storm.

Winter Storm in October.

So maybe call it an October Gale ;)

Politically correct Fall Colors Shown Below..

NE expecting storm conditions.

NYC expecting something....

Portland Maine further up the coast.

Weather only Stephen King could love.

Winter moving in before Halloween.

Going to be an interesting winter.

You can quote me on that!

I'll update later.

Oh wait.......

There's an area in the Atlantic.

Orange like a pumpkin...

A  meandering Low.

The plot thickens...

Non-tropical... moving away.

"We see it... but just ignore it"

Keep watching.

To be honest I saw this scenario coming but it's hard to explain what you know without explaining it in proper terms and correlate that with models that were offering different solutions. And, in truth I knew this was going to play out like this.... a messy October "kind of a tropical storm" yet mostly a "tropical disturbance" that was going to ride the Florida Keys with wind displaced from the stronger rain and then merge with the Cold Front... 

October 23rd.

In discussion on Twitter.

No one wants to tell the Lower Keys they may get tropical weather.

So the NHC didn't....they made Craig Key famous.

S Florida was told to watch carefully.

Tornado Warnings by the NWS

Nuff said... let's move on.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps...today's agenda calls for some shopping, planning, watching football and listening to some Country Music.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Forms and Forecast to be TS Philippe by Saturday.

Based on information from Recon

The NHC decided to post PTC warnings.

PTC 18 

Close up map for Floridians

PTC 18 in motion

Cones galore

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Eighteen

Note it's important to remember....

.... there is not currently a well defined center.

Link to whole discussion:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/272045.shtml?

Actually there are multiple centers in a larger overall Gyre, however one is expected to develop sufficiently to attain Tropical Storm force status and the NHC is putting out information in advance of that actual predicted development. Models have been very consistent as I said earlier so the track is set as is the intensity. Where exactly it does form could alter the exact path within the overall cone.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings.

Cuba and the Bahamas.

South Florida asked to pay attention.

The N GOM is being protected by Cold Air.

Cuba however is NOT protected by the front.

This is more like a November Caribbean Set up.

As for South Florida.

I'm going to show this Tweet.

Sort of says it all.

Up the coast.... this may play out differently.

Or it may go out to sea.

After TD18 aka Philippe is ABSORBED..

The energy becomes part of a winter storm.

A "SouthEaster" not a Noreaster.

That tropical energy will keep it wet.

Otherwise they have been dealing with snow.

This is a transition storm ...

We are transitioning towards Winter weather in October.

Stay tuned... 

...it's not over til it's over.

I'll update tomorrow evening.

Til then check out Mike's Spaghetti Models.

As always... Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Images I showed earlier this week.

That track still could verify so watch it carefully.

And winter is definitely happening sooner rather than later.

Updated!! Invest 93L Forms in the Carib w 50/50 Chances of Development. Where Would It Go?

8 PM

No new changes.

Still even odds something develops...

...or doesn't get a name.

Hate to say:

"Time will tell..."

But.... Time will tell!

Loop:

Compare and contrast...

See... no difference this evening.

Invest 93L is very close to the coast which is bad for the small towns and villages along the coast (and inland) and good for people in America that want to see the season die with Ophelia's controversial death over Ireland... downgraded just before she was about to walk onstage... Alas.....

In reality conditions are not that bad if and when 93L lifts away from the coast. The water is warmer, shear is low and conditions are forecast to favor development. The image belows shows the heat of the water that 93L will be moving over ... if it moves away from Central America and it should. 

Note the flow on the water vapor loop.

Sucking up tropical moisture.

In theory 93L slides in between two fronts.

Rides the rim of the front up into the Atlantic.

Maybe.

Again the some models show it going South.

Or lingering about.

Most models pull it up into the NW Carib.

And... out to sea.

Some models show moisture moving up towards NE.

Moisture not a closed eye.

Stay tuned...

Going to put up 3 Tweets here.

1 is obviously about weather this week.

2.... is about history and Wilma

3....who doesn't love the Northern Lights?

He shows the possibilities.

He explains the logic.

Wilma...

Truly a bucket list item for many.

I didn't say "bucket list" :( 

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. I did go shopping but I didn't buy boots. I got a new bra from Victoria's Secrets and Jo Malone brought back the perfume I liked last October that was sold out by the time I decided to buy it... when God gives you a second chance on something you love you grab it! The saleslady threw in a full size lotion of Candy by Prada  and some small sample Candy sprays to take to Florida with me next trip. Okay I said it was my "signature scent" but she was so sweet. Like the way Candy smells ;) Nice day... out and about seeing some Fall color and cooler temperatures as the blue skies peaked through and the clouds from the last night's frontal passage pushed out to sea.  And that's just the way I rolled today. A somewhat more productive day than Invest 93L had while it plays peek a boo down in the Caribbean.

Bonus view of the flow that 93L is currently hiding in.. embedded in... I see where the moisture is going, the question remains will it get a name. What is in a name? Ophelia could write a book on that question. 

We now have Invest 93L in the Caribbean with a 50/50 chance of developing. Odds are funny in that how they are perceived are different according to what you are discussing. To some 50/50 chances of tropical development mean this will most likely get a named. To other people 50/50 means "meh" and "not gonna happen just your typical Caribbean Gyre dance going on down there. Imagine if someone told you that you had a 50/50 chance of winning the Lotto on any given day... How much money would you bet on that lotto with 50/50 chances I wonder?

In New York this may not seem like a cold front but in Miami people are paying close attention and adding layers they can take off later today when it warms up again. Today most people in the Southeast are talking about the cold front or depending how far South you live the "cool front" and it's big news. Again when the dew points drop everyone is happier in Florida so it's a mute point in South Florida just how cold it is going to get. A reinforcing cold front down the road helps everyone's mood as well. It may top out in the high 70s today in Miami, but this evening girls will be dressing up in their favorite boots with short skirts and tee shirts... possibly a sweater. The shorts, boots and sweat shirt look will be popular for the next few days as Miamians sniff cooler weather fumes. It's a great respite from a long hot summer that featured very tropical weather to see the fronds swaying and feeling like Mother Nature air conditioned the out doors for a night or two. In Green Bay that would seem like Indian Summer weather and everyone would be ripping off their warmer clothes trying to sneak in one more round of shorts and flip flops.  And like the lottery it's all a matter of perspective if you see 70 degrees as cooler weather or warm Autumn nights.

That's snow up there where it belongs.

Near Canada. 

Looks like half a heart.

A thin but noticeable front exists.

Another view below.

That's one massive low up there by the Great Lakes.

So let's go back to the tropics and 93L.

Below is a map of gas stations still open for 93L.

Should Philippe form....

...the red areas are where he gets his fuel.

Models... early models say this about that.

As I said the other day the models have been inconsistent. And, when they are inconsistent I look to see what they ARE consistent on ... what they agree on vs what they do not. The models show that something down there is going to form. And, whether it becomes Philippe and it begins to move towards Cuba and Florida caught up by the next cold front or a lingering tropical disturbance near the Central America there is one consistency and that is more, tropical weather for Central America. DaBuh shows that below and his concerns. We worry on a named Tropical Storm in South Florida, yet days of tropical rain could produce life threatening mud slides and flash floods whether or not a name is given to this area of tropical convection.  Perspective rears it's ugly head again..

The front that passed through Raleigh last night was nice.

Strong rain after a windy night and a light show.

Not much severe weather in RDU Land.

Down in Hickory it produced tornado conditions.

I'll update this blog later today as the various model runs come in showing possible tracks for a possible Tropical Storm Philippe.  We aren't expecting Wilma like development, yet it's worth reminding people that Wilma was forming today in history. Different storm, different year but the consistent part of the discussion is it rode a cold front North into Florida. If one hurricane could win an award for the "Best After the Hurricane Passed Named Storm" Wilma would beat out Andrew any day. After Andrew we suffered through hot, airless days in the 90s with no AC, no electricity, no water and not a breeze in sight. Miami kids love a breeze, we expect it as it's always a constant down near Biscayne Bay but not after Andrew. However, after Wilma caught that front the front pushed through and we sat outside under a blanket of a million stars in total darkness with cool breezes BBQing everything that was defrosting in the freezer and feeding the rest of the hood or anyone who wanted to sit around the campfire and enjoy some fresh air.  October often shows us fronts and hurricanes doing their Autumnal Dance and that's a given IF something really forms and IF the timing is just right. 

So really this is about timing.

Like everything in life.

IF Philippe forms...

...if the next front pushes through.

IF the timing is just right for them to connect.

Otherwise we could have a different story.

A story with a different perspective.

Note the image above.

It' looks like the Loch Ness Monster went South after Ophelia. 

A plume of tropical moisture from Africa to the Caribbean.

Pushing up into the Atlantic.

Anyone ever heard of the Sargasso Sea?

Gyres... sea serpents and legends.

93L doesn't look like much today.

At first glance.

Watch the loop a bit.

Something is beginning to begin.

I'll be back later with an update when we have better models and a clear cut look at just what could happen in the not so distant future. Honestly we aren't expecting anything to form today or tomorrow but the chances have now reached the 2 day page the NHC puts up and they continue to go up for the 5 day. And, as the loop above shows we know have a floater up over the area. Is this the last chance for tropical action of the named kind this season? I don't think so... I can see us getting to the R name just as easily as the tropics remain active and the parade of frontal boundaries only stirs the pot a bit more.

Personally I need a new pair of boots.

I'm talking a pair of boots I love!

Next trip to Florida I'm leaving my summer clothes there :)

Things are changing.

We aren't looking for a Cat 5 in the Atlantic.

Or even a Cat 4 in the Atlantic.

But we could see moisture moving Westbound...

..into more favorable areas.

And we also see fronts dipping down...

....then dying out.

So stay on top of the weather always...

...and have a beautiful day!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

Ps... for my Grandma Mary... there was really something about her and her memory lives on and on especially the music she loved to play on her piano. It's all a matter of perspective... this morning it feels a lot cooler in Raleigh than it did on Sunday at the State Fair.