Potential Tropical Cyclone Forms and Forecast to be TS Philippe by Saturday.

Based on information from Recon

The NHC decided to post PTC warnings.

PTC 18 

Close up map for Floridians

PTC 18 in motion

Cones galore

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Eighteen

Note it's important to remember....

.... there is not currently a well defined center.

Link to whole discussion:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/272045.shtml?

Actually there are multiple centers in a larger overall Gyre, however one is expected to develop sufficiently to attain Tropical Storm force status and the NHC is putting out information in advance of that actual predicted development. Models have been very consistent as I said earlier so the track is set as is the intensity. Where exactly it does form could alter the exact path within the overall cone.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings.

Cuba and the Bahamas.

South Florida asked to pay attention.

The N GOM is being protected by Cold Air.

Cuba however is NOT protected by the front.

This is more like a November Caribbean Set up.

As for South Florida.

I'm going to show this Tweet.

Sort of says it all.

Up the coast.... this may play out differently.

Or it may go out to sea.

After TD18 aka Philippe is ABSORBED..

The energy becomes part of a winter storm.

A "SouthEaster" not a Noreaster.

That tropical energy will keep it wet.

Otherwise they have been dealing with snow.

This is a transition storm ...

We are transitioning towards Winter weather in October.

Stay tuned... 

...it's not over til it's over.

I'll update tomorrow evening.

Til then check out Mike's Spaghetti Models.

As always... Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Images I showed earlier this week.

That track still could verify so watch it carefully.

And winter is definitely happening sooner rather than later.