Tropics.. LAN.. Pineapple Express AKA Atmospheric River... Memories of Dr. George KTLA and Rivka Korf... a very good friend who recently passed away.
I'm back in Raleigh.
Doing Autumn today.
Woke up to 44 degrees....
...going up to high 70s.
Beautiful weather.
Not very tropical.
It's October and that usually means we watch the Caribbean for systems that could move up across Cuba, Florida or the Bahamas. Sometimes systems get into the Gulf of Mexico and often big ocean storms form at high latitudes and threaten no one but look great on satellite imagery. Any stalled out cold fronts over Florida are studied carefully for possible signs of development as are areas of persistent convection in the Southwest Caribbean. This week's cold front in Florida lowered dew points, next week's cold front will actually lower the temperature..... and then it goes flat, stationary and we start watching more carefully.
Let's take a look at the Pacific loop.
Watch that moisture moving West to East.
Below is a map for Lan.
Note moisture from Lan moves East.
It's basically a quiet day in the Atlantic Tropical Basin. There is a tropical system in the distant Pacific that will eventually have an impact on our weather. As we know tropical systems like to go towards the poles to transfer energy and that energy moves about the planet pushing the atmosphere up and down and around like a Merry Go Round sometimes. Years ago when I lived in LA they called it a "Pineapple Express" as it came from Hawaii and moved towards the US Pacific Coastline and often there were several bouts of weather in one long line .... like planes coming in to land at LAX. Now days the term that is popular is "atmospheric river" and though that is true it has always been true, but recently it got it's own Hashtag! Every year brings popular terms such as #firehose #gyre and now #amosphericriver stay tuned who knows what else will creep in before 2018 itself creeps onto the scene.
You can see this #atmosphericriver below
Years ago I lived in LA for years and being unfamiliar with late night and early morning low clouds and fog I had much to learn. In Miami it's basically very hot most of the year and then we get a brief respite before the monsoons hit in May and we are back in a soupy, summer time pattern and the hurricane season. In California terms such as "comma clouds" are bandied about on air and everyone waits to see where the weather will set up when the atmospheric river starts to flow towards the West Coast. Our world is incredibly connected in a never ending atmospheric dance... a ballet of sorts.
You can put it in motion below.
Good meteorologists are always watching the GLOBAL weather.
Global winds.
Global SATS.
You can find many links at Spaghetti Models.
It's all about linkage as I learned in college. In International Relations we study linkage and patterns that exist and with regard to weather that same theory holds true. What happens in Japan often has an effect on California or Alaska. When I spent summers in Minnesota teaching I listened to the weather radio that was always telling me what was happening in South and North Dakota. Weather is not static it flows here from somewhere else. In California we watched what was happening out in the Pacific and on rare occasions we watched EPAC storms to see if the surf was going to be up at Redondo Beach or not in a few days.
My teacher in LA was Dr. George.
George Fischbeck on KTLA every evening....
...teaching me California weather.
Remember the evening news?
I watched Bryan Norcross in Florida in the 1990s..
..I watched Dr. George in LA in the 1980s.
I've written about him many times before for many different reasons, but usually when "homesick" for California or when a weather story reminded me of his enthusiastic explanations of what was going to happen over the next few days way before the Euro or the GFS were ever developed.
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com.br/2010/02/el-nino-story-of-year-barely-spoken.html There's a good video of him doing a forecast. Remember when weathermen gave a forecast (best guess based on their constant researching of current weather patterns while keeping in mind climo? When Dr. George said it was going to rain or not rain... you could count on it. Sort of the way when Bryan Norcross said he didn't have high confidence in the NHC forecast that showed Hurricane Andrew missing Florida... you could run for the car the moment he was over and rush to Publix before the crowds got there.
Dr. George in the studio.
Old school graphics.
Comments from the article online in his obituary.
Again he explained things.
He taught us the "why" behind things.
He didn't tell us what the latest models say.
I'll tell you that models do show lower barometric pressure and an increase in convection in the Caribbean next week. Moisture from Lan and Eastern movement of "weather" will increase chances on our side of the world for tropical development and for those who believe in the MJO it arrives in conjunction with moisture and weather that originated with Lan. Some people, such as Jim Williams, do not hold much by the MJO as he regularly refers to it as "Mostly Junk Observations" you can be the judge, but in reality the real judge is usually (but not always) CLIMO and without the GFS, Euro or even the Canadian Model we would be watching the Caribbean and cold fronts dead in the water across South Florida this time of year. Actually "Jim" says this about the MJO as he is very specific and likes to qualify his thoughts often.
Models are great, but sometimes they simply tell you what you already known but observing satellite imagery and knowing CLIMO. For newbies ... Climo is "weather history" or the sum total of weather history averaged out over time and almost always Climo is King. Note in Mid October tropical development usually goes up, then it goes down and then again in early November there is a small peak when November Tropical Storms develop again one last time. Some years the hurricane season goes through December.... but officially it's over November 30th. Well, unless we have a storm on the map December 5th... Every year is different, but patterns persist over the course of time. Spaghetti Models has the graphic below shown as well as much other information and now that the tropics are quiet you might want to roam around discovering new things and learning.
Good weather people do not just watch the models.
The models change often daily.
They watch the pattern.
They know weather history.
They aren't afraid to go out on a limb.
Note he didn't have to use a Hashtag.
Cranky knows weather.
Dabuh knows weather as well as surfing.
I've learned much from both of them.
Mike shares his information.
And I've learned so much from Jim...
A friend of mine in Miami Beach passed away yesterday. She had been ill for a while and her death was expected for some time, but still it never prepares you for the finality of it and for the flood of memories. I met Rivka when I was about 17 years old and the local newspaper caught us smiling at the camera at a weekend event at the University of Miami. She always teased me that we were the only ones quick enough to smile for the camera when the reporter showed up. She was a great dancer and we danced often at weddings where she was light on her feet, filled with enthusiasm and joy. She arrived in Miami Beach in the early 1960s when it was a quiet, down and out sort of retirement community where signs on the beach were often posted in Yiddish. Years before Art Deco became popular it was a haven for newly arrived Russian Jews who found cheap rent in places such as the Amsterdam Palace that later became the home of a Versace. In our days each room was divided up into a cheap room and rented out often to families whose children went to the Day Camp at Landow Yeshiva on Miami Beach. We would drop children off and watch as they would run up the staircase into the maze of cheap units rented often to Russian families looking to live on Miami Beach. In those days she walked young girls down the aisle to get married, Russian Immigrants she spoke to in Yiddish and often an older woman in her 80s that was remarrying that was in her weekly class. She was always proud to see someone get married.. no matter the age. My brother got remarried this past weekend, he is 52 and she'd have been thrilled to watch him get remarried. I danced for her... I danced a lot.
In the 1980s and 1990s I ran a woman's organization for Chabad and Rivka pushed me to take on projects that were seemingly impossible but which she knew I could do ... cheerfully pushing me to "just do it Bracha" and I would. Bracha means "blessing" in Hebrew and it's a name I've used. Once she insisted I put on a program for over 300 women with less than 24 hours notice at a catered hall for a large event that the Lubavitcher Rebbe has asked women to make that week. Many communities made a small party in someone's home but Rivka said I should make it "BIG..... invite everyone" and somehow in less than 24 hours with the help of my best friend we got sponsors, food, music and called everyone to attend the dinner party. It was free ... it was fun... I'm pretty sure Rivka and I danced. And, in the end she taught me to move past problems, rise to an occasion and whether taking on a hard job or speaking as a Keynote Speaker (really in public I can be shy) I can hear Rivka telling me "Bracha you can do this!!" and I ... just do it.
She was awesome and she leaves behind a large family with children, grandchildren and great grandchildren who will also go out into the world and try to make it a better place. She taught us sometimes we screw up, make mistakes and yet we keep on dancing... keep on trying and eventually sometimes we live up to our own standards and achieve our dreams.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Labels: atmosphericriver, chabad, Florida, friends, hurricanes, ktla, LA, pineappleexpress, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:48 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home