UPDATED TD SIXTEEN AT 11 AMNate Forming in the SW Caribbean... Strong Weather Moving into FL From the East. Tropics Active Again.

TD 16

Quick update.

Obviously the cone follows the models.

The models follow the movement of TD 16

I'll update the blog after the 5 PM advisory from the NHC with new model information. Sorry, had a bad migraine today, and just kicking it finally. It's less important to see the first cone then to watch the ongoing pattern...the trend in future cones. Does it continue to move North...does it bend right closer to Florida (as climo usually dictates) or does it do something odd and random and pull to the left? So the first cone is good, recon information is good but in the end it's important how it evolves. I'll update after the 5 PM package. Newest models so far are shown below.

Note the Red X by Florida going from yellow to red is odd in that the odds are kept low for development. Yes we see it. We feel it. Weather has been crazy along the Florida coast but why go red? Maybe time will tell.

As I said earlier you don't need recon to classify this and put out information or possibly a PTC16 watch or just a regular old TD 16 Advisory. Time will tell. I'm going to the chiropractor and shopping. I'll update from the road in real time and give more information here as well. @bobbistorm on Twitter.

Close up and the wider view below.

2 points I want to make here.
One is this is a closed off system.
Ascat pass also shows that.

2017 we live in a very fluid world.
In real time.
Earth Null below.
Looks better every time I check there.

And tail end of a dead frontal boundary.

The Yellow X low chances.

90L aka NATE forecast to move fast.

There is a twist on imagery now  ...

multiple things going on.

Many intangibles.

Dry air.

ULL.

Twist.

Weather at the surface.

Very complex.

Far away from 90L down below.

I'll tell you how my life works. I wake up and check what time it is and immediately check the tropics on my phone.  I have a son who landed in South Florida with his family for the Sukkos holiday, a daughter who is feeding me  news links about Las Vegas and my youngest son is sending me early morning video from downtown Miami where it looks as if there is a mini hurricane going on today. We get so much information thrown at us from the moment we wake up.  Okay I checked TWC to see what Cantore was saying and if the powers that be have given Invest 90L a 110% chance of developing while they wait for the first morning visible and recon to go into the far away system. Oh..and I check out what Mike has to say... of course. My take away being "still 90L

I don't have to show the 90% cone...

..as Mike posted it with the models.

He is so incredibly fluid.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

There is an area in the SW Caribbean that is being monitored for upgrade in the short term to a named tropical system ... it's name would be Nate. It's a complex tropical world today in the Atlantic as a rapidly developing Nate is in wait to move further to the North towards the Gulf of Mexico while a strong onshore flow is slamming the East Coast with high winds and a large area along the coast is currently under Small Craft Warnings.

Models show a pull to the North and then some of the models diverge. In the same way that the investigators in Las Vegas try to unravel the "why" behind the horrific massacre of Americans at a Country Western Concert earlier this week.... tropical investigators are once again trying to pull apart the numerous models along with watching the area itself to figure out which of these models is most likely to happen. You know those shows NCSI New Orleans that try post fact to figure out how someone died? Meteorologists are investigators also yet they try to figure out what will happen and at the time time they try to figure out what will happen after that to give the best heads up and warnings they can to the people they serve. Some systems form and it's extremely easy to see where they are going to go as they are trapped under a strong high westbound and other areas we know will pull North towards the poles but...then what? See the European ensemble below. It spits out every possibility that the computer sees possible. In theory all those tracks are possible, yet the storm will only take one.

Not so easy.

Not so glamorous.

There are no TV shows...

Why I don't know.

 Miami is as sexy a city as it gets...

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

I say this all the time so I am saying it again. Larry Cosgrove is one of the best meteorologists I've known and I know many......   He has a site up on Facebook and you can subscribe to his free emails he sends out on the weekend that cover short term, medium and long range forecasts as well as general weather information. He has a great grasp of geography on a global level and the meteorology that goes hand in hand with what is evolving in any one place at any one time. When he is concerned it amps up my concern greatly and he IS concerned this morning about Nate.

So we start here from far away looking down at Planet Earth (our hemisphere in particular) and we can see a small round circle in the Southwest Caribbean. If you click on the above image you'll see it ... as it is currently small. A beautiful planet with it's atmosphere always fluid like the fresh breeze on Biscayne Bay in South Florida. Close up we can see the area that should soon be Nate and the strong onshore flow moving towards South Florida.

Look at those close together green lines.

Down below, small closed off circle.

This area is the area that will be dealing with Nate.

One way or the other.

From Nola to Miami people will be watching Nate.

But people along the whole GOM will be watching.

Until the NHC can narrow down the exact track.

https://www.facebook.com/WDAMStorms/

Another very good met I watch.

A friend turned me on to his forecasts.

He talks long... 

...like I write long.

You get a lot of good information.

One of the images I screen shot is below.

He's good. I suggest you follow him.

Even if you live in Florida not Mississippi.

So you wonder why we all read and follow and share information with other meteorologists so often online and the reason we do is there are many good thoughts out there and as is our nature we all specialize in one thing and we learn from each other. We add in other things, one thing about a good meteorologist is that we stay on top of the new trends and blend them with the old, solid study of the climate and meteorology. Each system is different yet commonalities exist. I hate seeing a system this time of year that is forecast to move up towards the Gulf of Mexico and or Florida as it's so deja vu of Wilma. This whole year has been one long flashback to that year except it's 2017 not 2005. Let's see how far we get into the alphabet this year soon enough.  Nate is NOT Wilma, but it's forming in a similar area and frontal boundaries are moving down into the South so it's hard not to go there. One thing that made Wilma ...Wilma... was the RI dance it did down near Mexico when it went wildly strong the way MANY hurricanes have done this year ... so it's hard to totally ignore that. The track may be different and there may be mitigating factors that hold it back from such intensification but there are also commonalities.

Right now it's just forming.

Pulling together faster than expected.

I'll be updating live throughout the day.

It's a very fluid set up.

Much going on.

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line.

Mobile Area really needs to watch.

Give or take 100 miles E/W

NW Florida.

BUT a track close to FL....

...brings WEATHER over FL and the Keys.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Map up on Navy Site.

Say it all. NRL.

Ps... I caught the tail end of a segment on Fox News with Geraldo Riveria. I missed the interview while switching channels back and forth for news on Las Vegas but.....I heard him say that the electric company was "corruptly managed" in Puerto Rico before the Hurricane and the equipment was old and not well maintained. I suppose they will rebuild a better grid. Wow...where did I hear that before? Oh... right in South Florida after we lost electric in Miami from Katrina and Wilma.