Updated NHC Reintroduces 2 Yellow Circles... 1 BIG one (Yucatan) 1 small little one... Tropical Shrinks Needed... Florida Watching For Development in a Week or So NW Caribbean... Vegas Is on our Minds.. In Our Hearts.. American Tragedy... Easier to Prepare for Hurricanes Than Senseless Violence.
Seems size does matter . . .
0% chances.
NHC way of saying...
"yes we know the weather was bad"
Below we have the BIG circle.
Coming down the road.
20% in 5 days.
Really what they mean is...
50% in 7 days.
Perhaps it's time for the quiz below.
Seriously I laughed so hard I started coughing :( and that's good as I needed a laugh today.
So let's look at the tropics.
Big wave coming off Africa.
Another wave mid ocean.
Bright orange dot by small yellow circle.
Give it five days.
Check back tomorrow.
Compare and contrast this below..
...with what it looks like in 4 days from now.
We can only hope Tom Petty..
..comes back as easily
Last week we had 2 yellow circles in the tropics we were watching. One was closer to (over) Florida and I did say that the Jax area would have very strong onshore wind, waves and weather. I did say that if the models verified and weather over West Florida was bad that Mike would end up doing Facebook Live and my prediction on that did verify. So you know you can trust my weather and life predictions.
Great shot Mike gave us...
..before going out on his boat.
Crazy strong weather.
Didn't get a name.
But very strong weather just the same.
Also as I suggested...
The NHC took the circles down.
Neither were developing.
Models were crazy.
We are starting over with 1 yellow circle.
You have to hit on the 5 day page.
Or you get the 2 day page below.
Granted I'm not very happy nor am I cheerful watching the news out of Las Vegas so take this with a measure of "she's in a mood" but for a long time I have been saying this... These graphics are OUT DATED and STUPID. We live in a 3 dimensional world, in live time when my 7 year old grandson using an iPad could make better front page graphics for the NHC then they give us. It's just ridiculous and probably explains why people go to sites they know and trust to find the details vs not finding information they want because they didn't realize they had to click on the screen for the 5 day and really WHO CARES as long term models are available for anyone who wants to go online and watch a 10 day model so why do they care if it's a five day vs a two day? People either don't want to know until there is a warning going up or they want information on every wave passing through the Caribbean. Once, a long time ago in a world far away, people cared about a five day forecast. In today's world it is meaningless. Put up a map (a normal map) with a time line of when something might develop the same way any excellent weather person on Twitter can do so and it's easier to understand. Use a Note 8 or use iPhone graphic packages... just fix it.... it is confusing and no longer relevant in today's world.
Models are still fishing around for the best place to catch a fish but the fish will most likely be served in Florida somewhere and drive time on I-95 could become a problem for people in it's path a week or so out. Today is October 1st and we are still looking at the October 6th or 7th area to see what will really be. The Euro is on top and the GFS is on the bottom ... shown below. Somewhere weather sets up around Florida. A front is forecast to move down and if so the weather could merge (it's October) with that front. If it moves down...
Tropics today.
High pressure to the North.
West bound tropical waves.
Area near the Yucatan.
I use Mike's site often as I have been a big fan since forever. But I also use other sties and read all day and view graphics put up on Twitter and they are easier to understand and more timely. I got to many sites so listing some I find awesome.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/ http://flhurricane.com/ are two of my go to sites and I do go to http://www.storm2k.org/ at times though I don't spend as much time there. Many love it and find it a rich resource and use their message boards. Many online do not like to use Twitter (why I don't know it's the easiest social media site and you get the most information and never have to Tweet) but to each his own. http://canetalk.com/ is hosted by Hurricane City. You can use Facebook to follow your most reliable, much loved weather person who gives you the information you need. If you go on Twitter check out some of the people I follow as they are awesome. Caribbean loop below.
My thoughts.
Let's look closer.
So we have a long frontal boundary.
Dipping down into the Caribbean.
Little black lines are waves.
Somewhere in this mix.
A tropical system may form.
Not necessarily a strong one.
But one strong enough for a name.
Models...
I prefer this site for models.
I prefer this site for models.
Also old school site:
Many models top left on Spaghetti Models.
Tampa Bay has a great site covering tropics. Use it... look through it.
I'll update this blog later today when the next model runs come out and as things evolve. For now I suggest all of us PRAY not just for Vegas but for all of America. We cannot always keep our loved ones safe and no matter how much we try it's an illusion. People have to go to work (commuting can be dangerous) go out to exercise... go to concerts and the movies and live. You can't hole up in the house 24/7 afraid to live life. It's a horrific tragedy; one where violence ruled the day and where now hospitals all over Vegas are trying to heal the many bullet wounds in the people who are injured. The death toll will rise and it should be ignored. It was 50 when I started typing now it's 59 and it will continue to climb. The injured are way over 500 and usually rule of thumb for attacks such as this is 10% of those seriously injured die. Sucks. Pathetic. Depressing. I've spent time in Vegas, I know it... I have close friends there (two of my oldest best friends live there) and one has a daughter with an emergency appendix surgery that was scheduled for this morning and the hospital, every hospital, looks as if people were brought in from a War Zone.
We live in wonderful times, but we also live in a time filled with tragedy of late. Try to to good.. try to do a mitzvah (good deed) today for someone to off set the balance of good and evil.. give charity (so many places to give) and pray for the families of the people who were killed and for those who are injured waiting to be treated and lastly Las Vegas has asked for blood... they need blood so if you live there or can give blood please do.
As for the tropics... we are on a hiatus while we change a bit and evolve into October. Oldest trick in the book is a system coming up from the NW Caribbean or GOM and the second oldest trick in the book is a Gale System quasi Tropical that develops in the Atlantic and the decaying cold fronts help to create both those scenarios and then add in westbound weak waves.
More later...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... Thanks for your patience today and really just pray... to a good deed and give charity.
One of my favorite country singers... Jason Aldean
Labels: blood, bobbistorm, Caribbean, countrymusic, Florida, hurricanes, jasonaldean, music, Nate, spaghettimodels, tompetty, tragedy, tropics, vegas, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:27 AM
1 Comments:
Good information.Thanks for sharing.
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