Updated .. Model Discussion & Thoughts on Maria & Lee .. Nate is That You in the W Carib? Why I Watch Wes and Brad in NC... Watch Maria on WebCams Live.. Hurricane Season Not Over... But We Are All Waiting on that Cold Front Along With Maria

Late Afternoon Update.

There's Maria close to the coast.

There's Lee out at sea.

Soon they will join each other.

Maria is now a Tropical Storm.

Lee is still a hurricane.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017092612&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=0

You can watch the model above that shows how Maria hooks up with Lee and goes out to sea.

Above is the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season so far... Note the one area not active for development has been the Western Caribbean ....though some storms have traveled through that area. Moving into October that area becomes the area most likely for tropical storm formation. We watch the tail end of old fronts (that includes departing hurricanes with long tails) and Upper Level Lows that sometimes work their way down to the surface as well as western bound weak tropical waves that hit high octane fuel when they reach the very hot water of the Caribbean.

The development of Nate is far away currently and different models see different areas where Nate will develop. One area that keeps coming up is an area off the East Coast of Florida (think Space Coast) and some quasi, small low meanders down across South Florida. Not a normal track but nothing has been normal about 2017.  The area to the South of Cuba seen in hot magenta and rust colors above has much potential this time of year. Remember Wilma, Mitch and the smaller difficult storms such as Irene in 1999 came from this area. October is not always all over in busy years and this is a busy year.

The GFS weighs in...

Shows a system moving through the GOM...

Up towards the NW Florida coast.

Think Opal territory (not strength)

Below the EURO isn't so bullish.

But shows an area of lowered pressures.

A huge high to the North that would block..

.. movement to the NE as shown above.

ANY COLD FRONTS NEED TO BE WATCHED...

...once they go flat across Florida.

So stay tuned.

Please give what you can to help...

Puerto Rico

Texas.

Florida.

Please make those charities a priority.

Stay tuned...

..it's not over til it's over.

Lee is a well built storm.

Small but feisty.

Pretty to watch spin.

Not threatening anyone.

Maria has seen better days.

Kicking up things in the Outer Banks.

* * *

There's Maria above.

Satellite image and radar image.

Those are the facts in images.

Below I'll give you words.

I'm a writer...

..that's what I do.

http://www.weather.gov/

This is the area under the gun this morning.

In Raleigh I have clouds.

The area above has weather.

The NWS site is shown above.

Use it to find the details.

Use it to find the weather.

Simplistically ....

Left stage and at the top is the cold front.

Not moving much but it will.

Right stage is Lee.. stronger moving some.

Center stage Irma...swirling. Barely moving.

I'm not going to show the NHC cone today.

It's irrelevant as it shows forecast movement.

Currently it's barely moving.

I'm not gonna lie to you.

At some point it will move.

Nonstop swirling creates beach effects.

Surf, riptides and beach erosion.

http://www.surfline.com/home/index.cfm

Find your favorite cam online.

Watch Maria.

TWC is not covering Maria on location.

http://hurricanetrack.com/

Mark Sudduth is and he knows the area.

It's a home for him...

..and he knows weather.

So watch him.

The Cone is the cone.

Moves slow...then curves out to sea.

Do you see it MOVING?

Not much.

It will but it's not now.

Anchored in ways.

Over warmer water this minute...

...than last night.

Jose did not come this close to OBX.

Water is therefore warmer.

Keep watching.

Going to keep it short today and ask you to read my previous blog as it has many valid points that you need to think about as to current discussion on Maria and down the road possibilities for Nate. Some models show Nate and Ophelia. There are two ways to look at long range models. One is to believe each model run is going to verify (wrong) and to watch the trend, the pattern and the process of where low pressure congregates and where it could go should it form into a closed tropical low. You smooth them out over time and compare and contrast them with current patterns going on and where convection continues to linger. After an area persists you pay more weight to the models and after a closed center forms the models become better and better. And, yet oddly those early stabs in the dark that the long range models make ... come very close to verifying and are good markers for directions we need to watch down the road. I post them as they are out there, everyone is posting them (on social media) and I'd rather be honest about what they show than to hype or imply some huge Wilma or Opal sort of hurricane coming soon.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/09/watches-warnings-up-for-nc-maria-big.html

Better than a cone with Maria.

It's offshore barely moving.

The facts are above.

Wind and surge are concerns.

Maria.... as it looks close up below.

At the beach.

Strong surf and it's still far away.

I woke up this morning and started watching live cams that could show me Maria. Seems some other meteorologists were doing so as well so posting those images below. You can safely enjoy the waves and the view even though the TWC isn't covering it live. I do live in NC and know how the wind feels at the Outer Banks when a storm is nearby. I go often to the beach, but not going today. Maybe tomorrow but for now enjoying it from home and will figure out what I'll do tomorrow ... tomorrow.

A point I want to make today is why I put a graphic up from Brad Panovich who works in the Charlotte NC area rather than just showing the NHC cone. He is very good, a great communicator of details and if you are looking for a good city to move to you couldn't do wrong with the Queen City as you know he always has your back. Sometimes he talks on systems affecting the general area and in Raleigh I watch him carefully. When I moved to Raleigh I was told you have to watch "______" because everyone watches him and he's been here a long time. He's good (not saying names but locals will know who I mean) but over time I began to watch Wes as he seems to have that passion and gift of communicating but not hyping weather as does Brad. http://wncn.com/author/wes-hohenstein/ In the end... you watch or read who you trust and who you have learned from vs following the flock to someone who dumbs down weather or tries to act as if there is nothing to worry on about regarding a possible upcoming winter storm and when the winter storm does trash life as you know it for a week he goes "oh well that's how it goes" because in the world we live in today people want facts, images, details and they want it when they want it where they want it and they want it NOW! No longer do most people wait til 6 PM to see what Brad or Wes show on the nightly news (some do) but most go online to Facebook or Twitter for immediate information and there are those who supply it in a concise, smart way that shows respect for their audience's ability to grasp the details of weather vs "I'll tell you when to worry about it" as many other weather people do as if they are Captain America saving you from the storm. No one really can save you from the storm but YOU.... and knowledge is power so the more knowledge you have the more you are able to deal with snow that cuts off a Southern City from the normal flow of life or a hurricane that makes a major impact even if the eye stays off shore and goes out to sea.

A hurricane is more than the "eye" and although every storm chaser wants to be in the eye... the external structure of the hurricane can cause damage far from the inner structure. It's a large area with complexities and tell it to St. Mary's Georgia that needs to rebuild it's dock to Cumberland Island that Hurricane Irma hit Naples and the Florida Keys not Georgia. Luckily Irma did not come ashore with Category 5 winds or it could have been a replay of the 1893 Hurricane that gave the whole area a knock out blow for years. Luckily Harvey was not the 1900 Galveston Hurricane that killed so many and threw Galveston back into the Dark Ages but tell that to people in Houston who were swamped under so much water they couldn't argue that it was the Bayou City and civilization as they knew it no longer existed. Again ..... I remind people Hurricane Katrina did not make landfall in New Orleans, it did not "hit New Orleans" and when Nola got the fringe effects it held up fine.... sadly the levee system did not. A hurricane is more than an "eye" or a "cone" it is a complex structure with damage happening often far from the eye.

One night during some huge storm that hit nearby I realized that the two meteorologists mentioned at the top were up late at night on Twitter watching tides, wind changes in real time vs doing a taped, short segment and making jokes about sports teams and going to sleep. And, that was where they had me... they were into the details (however small or not sexy) and sharing that information with whoever else was watching on Twitter knowing others would... could understand what they were talking about.

Another thing I want to say here is this... people go to a Chinese Buffet not because it is relatively cheap or they think the food is old, stale and bad but because over time they found the one they like that has a good array of delicious food they can get fast when they want it. They have options and they can get chicken, shrimp or sushi and fake crab mixed with cheese in any number of dishes and their choice of ice cream for dessert if they have any space left for dessert after making multiple trips back for their favorite dish. And, they can do this without waiting to be served, waiting for the waitress who is waiting on a large table nearby who got there two minutes before you... and then waiting for the over worked waitress to serve your food......... and hope they are happy with what is was on their limited menu that never changes over time. People have an hour for lunch and between drive time to the restaurant and getting back to their job they know they can go to a buffet and get their favorite food without eating and it's not in the same, stale format that local restaurant has as they always serve mushroom barely soup or split pea because it seems the owner likes those two soups.  Mike from Spaghetti Models does that with regard to serving you weather information when you need it and giving you a wide array of sites that he thinks you may want vs just his favorite sites. I've seen him add a site he thought someone may want while doing a Facebook Live. He is that kind of guy and that is why so many go to his site for the fastest news when they want it... fast, quick and they can check back in real time. This is the world we live in and he plays his part in it providing information and again  knowledge is power.

spaghettimodels.com

The NWS is a great source to check the details in your area. You have to go to them or you can click on the graphic on Spaghetti Models that Mike always has up there along with graphics for the cone from the NHC and other wonderful maps and links.

So you can use the models at the top left of Spaghetti Models or click on my earlier blog to see what I said late last night regarding possible Nate and Ophelia forming in the early days of October. Well, the GFS on any given run pops up a possible storm before October but ...it's the GFS. You get what you pay for and obviously the EURO is the better model (usually) as you get what you pay for... we in America need to start giving more money to those who make the models... or we can keep stealing wifi from the guy next store who has a strong signal and knows what we are doing but doesn't care...  Often the UKMET sniffs out solutions as it did with Irma and others this season so keep watching it.

An old link many prefer is below and I'm always asked for it so putting it out there. Again Windy.com is a new awesome site that many like.

moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
windy.com

We are always evolving online with new sites and ways to gather information that is why Mike is always updating and rearranging his page ... weather evolves in real time.

I'm going to the chiropractor today. Sitting hunched over the computer and the phone until late at night makes chiropractors richer :) and I need a break. I'll double check and reproof this later and add relevant, timely information at the top.

As for Nate... he's not there now but he may show up soon enough. For today Maria and Lee are doing their thing.. Queen and King of the Day.

If that convection remains... keeps showing up.

Down in the Western Caribbean...

The models may verify.

Keep watching.

See a graphic I showed last night.

Lord some busy sites take so long to load I can put mascara on while they are loading. Good thing I know how to multitask and another reason I sometimes like the older loops. Always good to mix them up a bit. Check back later I'll update later today in real time. You can talk to me fast on Twitter if you have a question or want to share thoughts. I do Snapchat but just mostly my family, that way I can monitor how much cafecito Jr is drinking while he studies all night to be an architect or where any specific kid is at any moment in real time... it's a great new world. Love it!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps .. Some here will get this :)

I watched Jimmy Buffett sing that live way back when.

Somethings are forever.