TD16 (NATE) Forms in the SW Caribbean .. Euro & GFS split as always.

TD 16 Forms.

Note the earliest arrival of winds.

Remember this changes in real time.

I feel as if that is more valuable than the cone just now.

To be honest no one has asked me when the Yucatan is going to get the storm but everyone wants to know when their town may see Nate. From Miami to Tampa to New Orleans everyone is wondering. This really is your guide for when the WEATHER...the WIND.. may arrive vs the exact location of the eye which will be pinned down in real time. Every six hours the NHC updates this product shown above so please check it often. The link for the NHC is http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Currently the models disagree on timing, intensity and track. What else is new ... right? 

The GFS takes it more to the left.

The EURO more to the right.

Climo is on the side of the EURO.

Time will tell.

The Euro keeps it over water.

Through the Yucatan channel.

Currently shows a landfall in Florida.

This will most likely change.

I'm showing you Wednesday afternoon.

Then there's the GFS.

Inches closer to the Yucatan.

Shows land interaction.

Takes it further West.

The truth lies somewhere in between.

I'm going to be offline until Saturday evening when I will give a full update and we will know what really happened.  I do this every year, new comers here to this site may not know that. So I am providing a link to why I am offline.  What's kind of odd for me is that this happened with Hurricane Wilma when it was forming down near what should be Nate.  Models did not show a strong hurricane, then it under went rapid intensification that was so fast it became historic. I'm NOT saying this will happen with Nate but it's worth remembering what could happen in this are SHOULD the center of Nate develop into a well stacked center.  

http://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/4126/jewish/Sukkot.htm 

Climo really shows a storm that forms in this region going right  more than left, but there are always exceptions. I like to point out people you should follow online and one of them is below. I will be offline but Mike will be doing Facebook Live and there are many great voices on Twitter. What he is showing below is history and the focus on what the trend will be over time. As models pull one way or another the trend begins to set in, the dye usually becomes cast.

Mike showed a Tweet from Brad Panovich, he is one of my favorite mets. Worth going on Twitter to follow great meteorologists who don't live and work in your area. In 2017 we don't need to be limited by things that we once were... 

Shear is lessening.

Not great news.

It's not about today.

It's about tomorrow.

It's about how the storm develops.

A well stacked storm...

...can rapidly intensify.

Land interaction can be a problem.

The questions are shown below.

To be honest.. if this develops as other storms this year have done recently and shear begins to lessen ahead of in it's path there is no reason not to expect the current models to be coming in on the low side for intensification.  Will this really be a fast mover? Forward speed is important and if it speeds up that changes everything, if it slows down that changes everything.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/ is a great site to follow while I am offline as well as the other's shown above.

Earlier today I mentioned Larry Cosgrove on Facebook and Nick in Mississippi. They are both good to follow.

https://www.facebook.com/WDAMStorms/

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

These people go above and beyond taking time out to update you on information they either can't show in a 2 minute sound bite on air or as retired meteorologists. They along with the NHC provide you with the best information you can find far in advance of landfall. 

Now let's look at the storm itself. I love these loops. I will be offline doing my thing, but they will update in real time. 

Floater

Here's one loop.

Note the system by South Florida.

Waves on South Beach look like OBX today.

That's not normal.

It should be watched carefully...

It may not "develop" 

It's causing crazy weather ...

Weather IS what it is ALL about..

Down in the Caribbean... Nate/90L

Now in the GOM...

Water vapor loop

Lastly a great loop.

Watch for when it starts to roll.

So... I'll leave you here.. Thanks for your patience. I'll be back and online often as soon as the holiday is over and by then we should be knee deep in watches, warnings and a more clear picture of just where this storm will go. And again the 2017 season goes on and on... even when you least expect it!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter