7.7 Earthquake in Caribbean! Winter Weather Promises Broken as Winter Forecasts Went Bad.... Thoughts on Kobe and Fog and Life.

7.7 Earthquake in Caribbean.
Between Jamaica and Cuba.
Felt in Miami.
Yet... no coverage at all by CNN or FOX?
As Impeachment was on a "break"
You'd think they'd BREAK IN for a 7.7 Quake?
And that's why we have Twitter I suppose.

This is a developing story.

Imagine the local news in Florida will cover it.

And aftershocks obviously expected.

Possible Tsunami Concerns.

Sometimes Aftershocks can be as big or bigger.

If you have loved ones near this region.

Hope they are safe...

7.7 is huge.

Note in Miami buildings were evacuated.

I have friends in tall buildings in downtown Miami.

They definitely felt it there.

That has to be freaky because....

...in California you go "oh an Earthquake"

But in Miami when a building moves...

... your mind goes bad places.

#BREAKING: People evacuating high-rise buildings in South Florida due to shaking caused by 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Caribbean https://t.co/i9lpILZlsN

— Andrew Wulfeck (@andrewwulfeck) January 28, 2020

The rest of the blog is about the lack of winter.
And how FOG in LA made news sadly...
...with the death of an Icon and 8 others.

As always I'm watching the Water Vapor Loop.
Well unless my friend texts me on a 7.7 Earthquake...

#winter of #2020 that’s the flow. Check out that low. I know it’s not an eye but hey hurricane season distantly on my mind. Sweet tropical dreams. Enjoy the mild cool air. #carolinas calm boring winter. pic.twitter.com/aUYHGrCSkx

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) January 28, 2020

No apologies.

I am who I am.

I'm a Tropical Weather Person 1st!

Before I wish on winter weather...

...I'm tropically obsessed.

And I love the Water Vapor Loop!

I promised a blog today so here it is... a kind of catch up blog with many thoughts. Generally I'll be blogging more regularly now as for now things are somewhat back to normal in my life.

Okay, I'm being honest here.... it's been a beautiful winter in Raleigh North Carolina in that it's been cool and beautiful, not hot all year round and not one of those years when the city shuts down because of some snow and they don't send snow plows out and the salting didn't work because it rained first and we didn't get any of those sandwich winter storms of sleet, snow, sleet then lastly snow so when you walk outside your snow boots sink down after the initial "crunching" sound and your illusion of 5 inches of snow is really snow on top of lasagna layers of sleet and snow. And if you think I'm complaining on that ... yeah as for the next few days ice usually forms on top of the sleet covered snow that's not melting because it's cold and cloudy and school is cancelled for a week and all across America people make fun of people in Raleigh that can't drive in the snow... because they are clueless what it's like when it snows here after rain and the hilly road immediately freezes into a slope that could be used for a bobsled race in the Winter Olympics.

Really those pictures did need a Soundtrack...

...it's a very steep hill that froze immediately!

After 3 minutes of snow.... 

So no I am not being a Debbie Downer on our Winter Weather this year but I did decide early on that the "models" and the "forecasts" for Winter 2020 were grossly off target and it's going to be a repeat of last year that featured no real snow. Okay, we had a drop in November way too early then nothing, nada, nothing the rest of the winter. I'm not going to go maniac over every snow flake on the 9th day in my phone App showing me "maybe some mixed wintry weather" when I know how this is going to go. Until I see the change happening......we are in a similar pattern as we had in the hurricane season. Wet and rainy along the Gulf of Mexico, Texas gets storms of various kinds... a low forms in the Gulf of Mexico and often crosses Florida and reforms off the Carolinas. Then said storm flirts with the coast of Carolinas sending illusions of snow often discounted as graupel which is really like sleet but for some reason we have to show how academically smart we are with meteorological terms and call it Graupel. See definition below from Google.

Graupel (/ˈɡraʊpəl/; German: [ˈɡʁaʊpl̩]) also called soft hail or snow pellets, is precipitation that forms when supercooled water droplets are collected and freeze on falling snowflakes, forming 2–5 mm (0.08–0.20 in) balls of rime. The term graupel is the German language word for sleet.

Yeah right.

I'm not going to play this game this year.

Either it snows or we get "graupel"

...or Spring comes early.

I've lived most of my life without snow.

I can make it through another Raleigh winter this way.

And if by chance snow surprises us... 

I'll be really excited!

If it snows when I'm in Seattle in February.

Oh well....

I'll be in Seattle ;)

I love Seattle.

Life will go on without me crying over missed snow.

(maybe it will snow in Seattle ..wink wink)

When I want to know the truth in NC

I go to 1 of the best local sources.

When Allan Huffman talks on snow I pay attention.

Even if he says a "flake" I smile.

You can take him to the bank.

He doesn't sensationalize.

Then again a few days earlier.

He pointed out the irony of snow forecasting.

The Great Raleigh Snow Storm of 2000

A forecast for "flurries" verified...

...an overachieving storm it was.

Totally shut down the city.

Way before my time here.

Okay I do read DaBuh every morning.

He's always got something to say :)

He's got great instincts ...

... and a way with words and music!

And  yes I have looked at the models.

I spend a lot of time on www.windy.com

Many other good sites but fun to play there.

Interactive, move around a bit.

Again look at that system in the Pacific.

Up close...staring at NC:

Yeah yeah... the Gulf of Mexico is busy...

in the Winter.

Pretty sure we see early season development.

As this trend continues weather wise.

Check out that system there right top pic.

Flow of moisture from ....

...yet our front is "moisture deprived"

Hmnnn

When I see snow in my forecast HERE...

...not on the 8th day of my phone App

Then I'll believe it!

(maybe)

The story of our time is weather related.

Kobe Bryant.

The helicopter he was traveling in crashed.

His beautiful 13 year old daughter on board.

All 9 souls on board died.

The moment I looked up in the Sushi restaurant with my daughter at the screen with Breaking News and saw how foggy it was during the search and rescue I thought immediately of the pictures of the fog from the night before that @icyclone posted on Twitter and I knew deep down inside somehow this was related to that fog. And after living close to a decade in the LA area I know how fast fog can move in ...especially along the coast. 

Unless you have lived there you really can't imagine ... well unless you have lived in London. One Saturday I was sitting in the living room where we were staying for the weekend and people had been setting up a huge buffet for lunch for after services at Chabad of Santa Monica in the backyard a few feet from the house. We did that in LA... ate outside never expecting rain. Suddenly despite the fact that it had been a sunny, beautiful LA day I noticed people racing to take apart the buffet table set up and bringing it inside to set up inside. I asked why and someone said nervously while looking outside as the blue sky disappeared "the fog" and I said "sooo??" as coming from Florida "fog" is kind of cool and rare and they added very nervously "the fog is MOVING IN...." and in the time it took to have that brief conversation I saw what looked like a cloud, suddenly in the backyard, obscuring the little building behind the house that was the Synagogue and definitely blocking out the view of even the table that minutes before had been set for a Queen.... being rearranged indoors. All I could think of is "that's fog? It's a massive cloud... that's not real" and I have to tell you we spent the whole day and night and next morning socked in by a cloud of fog that looked surreal in the glow of the streetlight outside the window ... the buildings across the street obscured from view... shadowy, impossible to make out what the signs on the building said. And I wondered...is that what it's like in London when they say it's "think like pea soup" and again the FOG itself had taken on a persona... a personality ... it wasn't just "fog" but something out of a horror movie; except being a weather person it was exciting for me as it was my first real experience with "THE FOG" in what's often Sunny California.

That FOG moved in fast this past Sunday in Calabasas. The pilot was said to be climbing above a "cloud bank" when he slammed into a mountain side killing all aboard including the man who was an Icon and a mentor to many who loved him. I always loved Calabasas as we'd drive around there often sometimes on our way down to Malibu as my in-laws lived in Northridge and we'd take long Sunday drives often when the weather was nice and we were in the mood. I always loved the way the shadows would fall as you drove through the hills of Calabasas a place now popular for the homes of movie stars and now remembered as the place where Kobe Bryant died. That's sad.

My brother in Greece mentioned it being foggy recently... the same day it had been foggy in Raleigh and my brother in Miami posted pics on Twitter today of the fog in Miami, but the fog in Miami is never as thick as it is when it "moves in fast" in California.

Amazing how fog has been such an issue there year.

In Miami... in Raleigh... in Calabasas.

So yeah that's it from me today.

I'll be more regular this week and next.

Shorter blogs.

Less catching up and random thoughts.

My daughter who graduated from NC State was here.

Fun doing fun things with her....

She's back in Miami.

Stopping every time she sees a dog to pet it.

Really... 

:)

(because I raised her right she asks the owner first!)

:)

Very sad story on Kobe and the other 8 people who died.

Sad for snow lovers in Raleigh this year.

But I'm enjoying the beautiful blue skies.

The cool air as if it's air conditioned inside !!

The chance that it could snow maybe a flake LOL.

And well weather is what it is...

... climate is long term.

Climatology will say there's a chance.

Only time will tell.

Inspirational Icons are good.

Choose wisely.

Hopefully one day you too

 will be an Icon to someone.

Live your life to the fullest.

Do good.

Be happy.

Enjoy the weather you have....

.... see the silver lining.

And careful what you wish for...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Twitter = mostly weather

Instagram = weather, make up, random life pictures..

Ps.......

 I'm going to leave you with this great Tweet by Cranky ... if you are going to bug him for a "sound track" note he will give you one ........but it might not be the one you wanted. For me it was a real blast from the past so I'm smiling.

Little throwback video for some evening fun.@StuOstro talking about the Perfect Storm...and then... pic.twitter.com/T16fKXCT7i

— crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) January 28, 2020

Snow in LA County... Santa Monica Freeway ... Malibu! Happens More Than You Realize. 1980 Similar Winter Storm in the SW. Wondering on the 2019 Hurricane Season

Look how pretty!

Like Kansas or Iowa or maybe New Jersey.

But it's snow in LA county.

Kind of jerky video but it's real and tells the story.

Actually if you look at the date.......

......you'll see it's not yesterday but a few years back.

Usually it snows up in the Mountains.

I lived in LA in the 1980s.

I loved to stare up at the mountains at the snow.

So close and yet so far away.

But it always framed the view so perfectly!

In truth despite what you hear on line...

It used to snow more often in LA ...

Check it out in the Roaring 20s in LA!

Model T Fords!!

In 2016 this article was written....

..asking why it doesn't snow anymore.

Good question.

Easy to say Global Warming.

But I'm wondering if there is more to the story.

Perhaps the heavy traffic in LA over time...

.... created small heat islands of sorts as in Atlanta?

Something to research or think upon.

https://www.kcet.org/shows/lost-la/why-hasnt-it-snowed-in-los-angeles-since-1962

Look at all those years with snowfall totals.

1882, 1877 (official record)

1913, 1921, 1922, 1926 snow flakes fell.

1944, 1949 and 1957 big hurricane years.

1962 was a quiet hurricane year.

1926 Great Miami, Bahama and Cuban hurricanes.

This year Cuba had a recent rare tornado.

Hmnnn

What is going on with the world?

Did Lex Luthor finally figure out how to control the weather?

Maybe it will snow on the Oscars?

Can you imagine winter coats over those beautiful gowns?

I don't think there will be a snowy ending like in the movies.

But there has been much speculation on the recent snow.

Maybe snow is back in style?

Hey it snowed in Burbank in 2011!

February, same timing as this year.

"Never seen snow" 

No...not really true but it sounds good.

Snow happens.

It seems it used to happen more often.

And there were less people there to see it in 1913!

So don't believe everything you read.

I lived in LA a long time.

I never saw snow.

My friends in Torrance near Rolling Hills saw some.

(higher elevation in Rolling Hills than LA Basin)

Malibu has mountains.

LA is a basin... flat, surrounded by mountains.

Kids drive up to Frazier Park usually to see snow.

It's beautiful there.

Arrowhead is also beautiful.

In Palm Springs you can sunbathe by the pool...

...or take a ride up to the ski resorts covered in snow.

It's not like it's snowing in Key West...

But West Hollywood saw snowflakes...

..and the Valley towns of Northridge and Thousand Oaks.

In 1980 below there was snow near Crowley Lake.

Great picture, very Ansel Adams.

But Crowley Lake is upstate.

But it was 1980.

So in 1980 I lived in Long Beach California. My husband and my best friend's husband took the students from the Chabad School in Westminster on a weekend trip to Phoenix for Shabbos (the Jewish Sabbath on Saturday) and then to the Grand Canyon on Sunday. That was the plan. My best friend Pesha and I had both had little girls the summer before so we decided to have one long Slumber Party and hang out and talk life, football and motherhood as we usually did when together. It became a memorable trip for the students but one long weekend in hell for the parents in those days before kids having beepers or cell phones. They safely got to Chabad of Phoenix and set up for Shabbos without any problem. However, KTLA was running stories nonstop on the news about severe flooding in Phoenix and in those days before you could look on Twitter to see where the flooding was or put on The Weather Channel basically every parent called us both twice hysterical asking if the kids were okay. Yes, they were okay... a different part of Phoenix, I was assured they were fine and having fun and safe. 

Moving along they packed up and headed off in a huge Winnebago that one of the parents had lent the two young Rabbis to take the class to the Grand Canyon. In a few hours the calls began again as the same parents who heard on the news that there was some sort of blizzard near the Grand Canyon and roads were closed and motorists were stranded. My ex husband called me deliriously happy because they had gotten to the Grand Canyon and it was covered in fresh snow looking more beautiful than he had ever seen it and being a LA kid he had been to the Grand Canyon often. I asked if the kids were okay? He said they were "thrilled it was snowing and many had not seen snow in their lives" and then babbled on again about the layers of snow shining in the sunlight and the blue skies and how he wished I could see it. No Facetime then or Facebook Live huh? It looked a lot like this scene below:

I posted that picture the other day.

Beautiful isn't it?

Because this year it also snowed there as it did in 1980.

So because the roads were closed behind them rather than sticking to the plan they decided to drive up through Vegas (not stopping just driving through) which the school had said they didn't want them to do but hey the roads behind them were closed so it seemed like a good idea. I told each parent that called that they were safe from the blizzard just as they were safe from the flooding in Phoenix. It was one hell of a winter storm. My best friend and I sat by the heater at night (which is what she said they do in Buffalo) as it was really cold in LA and we had fun and were happy the parents had stopped calling to check and the babies were asleep and life was good.

http://cms.sbcounty.gov/parks/parks/calicoghosttown.aspx

Then the storm assaulted the High Desert to the North of LA and the road into LA was closed due to snow, high winds and they shut down the Grapevine and every other road down to LA. The parents called again.... and I told them again the boys were fine they had spent the night in a motel on the other side of the mountain pass that was shut down to any high profile vehicles and let me tell you it was a big winnebago so it wasn't going anywhere! On the 2nd day of being stranded there they decided to take the kids to a ghost town similar to this but possibly this ghost town; the kids had a blast. The parents were frustrated, worried and mind you LA also was hit with extremely bad weather and it seemed those kids were never coming home. Finally on the 2nd night there they decided to book them passage in the morning on AMTRAK at the nearest point they could get on the train and may I say that to this day one of the most exciting things about the trip they took was that they got to go on a train... a real train. In those days LA kids didn't take subways or trains much and well... it was a surprise and they loved it. Memorable trip. So memorable I can never forget how bad the weather was in February of 1980 in all the same places the winter weather has been nuts in February of 2019!

My best friend and I and our babies were fine. The husbands were fine, though probably tired of being with their Middle School students for days. The parents were happy to see their long, lost sons. The kids were excited because those LA kids got to see SNOW, they drove through SNOW and they saw the Grand Canyon covered in SNOW and they drove through Las Vegas and saw all the bright lights and then they went to a Ghost Town and then they got to go on a train. Finally someone drove up and carefully drove the Winnebago back despite high winds but legally and LA continued to have crazy weather the rest of 1980. 

I have to wonder on what the parallel is with the this coming hurricane season to the similar winter of 1980 in the desert Southwest that included snow, flooding, high winds and if I remember right fires and mudslides. 

Very busy year.

Wild wicked Hurricane Allen.

Taking up the Caribbean Sea...

...down near the Yucatan.

Made a beeline for the desert SW kind of...

The season started late....

...it was very busy deep into November.

It was considered a Neutral Year.

Coming off a weak El Nino based on some sites.

Something to wonder on...

As for today.

It's still February.

It's still winter.

We still only got real snow in November.

Seattle has been stealing the show.

Minneapolis has gotten it's fair share.

And Vegas saw snow on two different occasions.

Keep watching.

Winter ain't over.

Yes there are wild whispers online of wicked winter weather coming.

Some will most likely say "unprecedented" or "historic"

Someone online said a hurricane like winter storm was forming.

Isn't clickbait grand?

We have only officially been collecting weather data since the 1800s.

The history of Earth is what climate is all about.

The 1700s and 1800s produced wicked Caribbean Hurricanes.

Jamaica got trounced.

And back before man began settling the LA Basin...

...it seems to have snowed more than it does now.

Have a great weekend!

It's rainy here in Raleigh...

...though warming up into the low 70s on Sunday.

Then it dives down again into colder weather.

It's the way of the world.

It's the way weather works.

And often parallels exist... 

We learn from weather patterns of the past.

Will 1980 be someone's analog year?

Who knows.

We are a month of two away from those early forecasts.

But just remember.........

........last year they said cooler temperatures in the Atlantic...

could bring a quieter hurricane season.

Then the temperatures warmed up.

Anyone who went through Florence or Michael....

...will tell you it was a Hurricane Season from hell.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

June 27th. Tropics. Thoughts Around the Web Show Our Unique Perspectives. Where is Development Next? Strong CV Waves & Strong Weather in US

Note to NHC....

Never follow inconsistent runs of the Euro.

Worth noting something is there....

....but it's hard to see.

Between a rock of shear...

sitting in warm water.

Could it stick around?

Is the set up right?

But this is the wrong guy?

Up close.

Uno

Itsy Bitsy Bikini on the beach.

Dos

Hmnn too early, too soon.

Nice wave.

My thoughts.

In truth the GFS beat the EURO on the NC X

People ignoring CV Waves....

Because press on cold water...

...silly cause it's really just too soon.

June to soon.

chris taught me that........

But great waves for June.

Let me say one thing here on the cold water by Africa. It wasn't there, it was warm as in warm like 2017 water temperatures and then suddenly the water temperatures flipped and went colder. Why? I'm more curious on the "why" of cooler water in June than anything else. Will it continue or flip back suddenly to warm water in August and September when we look to this part of the world to produce long tracking hurricanes? We don't look in June so why do I care? And, if the models didn't see it cooling do we worry on what the models didn't pick up? I'd worry. Why? Because the waves coming off are as Jim Cantore likes to say "robust" and well formed. I'd rather have cooler water with extremely well developed and well stacked tropical waves as properly aligned waves go further vs falling over because they are tilted. If a wave is well developed (as in can rock a bikini on any beach anywhere) then the air is allowed to evacuate properly and they will grow in size and intensity with names that will be remembered for years down the road. A few years back we had the perfect set up and nothing happened. Why? Warm water and low shear were there so why didn't we get Donna the Remake? Because.... the waves that shot off of Africa were poorly developed, multiple centers at different levels and as they moved West they basically tipped over and could not wrap up properly into anything of significance. Cool water with incredibly well stacked waves worries me more than warm water with poorly formed waves. Keep that in mind. It may come back to haunt us in the last week of August or early September.

Mike is watching the GOM.

@iCyclone isn't impressed with junk systems.

He likes the EPAC for obvious reasons.

He wants something real to chase.

You can follow along with him there.... 

As for me... 

Biding my time.

Watching waves.

Waiting to see what develops.

Loving life, loving weather.

Loving maps.

Always good to know who you are.

I lived in LA.

I didn't chase cyclones.

I tracked tremors...

... and studied the history of the land grants.

I frolicked on the Santa Monica Pier.

Always good to know yourself!

As i say ... be true to who you are...

And, you'll be happy.

Dabuh loves to surf.

He be watching waves.

And waiting.............................

Cause surfers know they have to wait!

Wait for the perfect wave.

Not junk waves........

And I'll be watching robust waves..

..with Jim watching the WV Loop.

What do you love?

Who do you love?

What makes your heart beat faster?

So fast - you keep coming back for more?

???

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

Ps... Song "randomly" came on next on YouTube.

Going with it .... 

Love you, Bobbi

Tropics.. LAN.. Pineapple Express AKA Atmospheric River... Memories of Dr. George KTLA and Rivka Korf... a very good friend who recently passed away.

I'm back in Raleigh.

Doing Autumn today.

Woke up to 44 degrees.... 

...going up to high 70s.

Beautiful weather.

Not very tropical.

It's October and that usually means we watch the Caribbean for systems that could move up across Cuba, Florida or the Bahamas. Sometimes systems get into the Gulf of Mexico and often big ocean storms form at high latitudes and threaten no one but look great on satellite imagery. Any stalled out cold fronts over Florida are studied carefully for possible signs of development as are areas of persistent convection in the Southwest Caribbean. This week's cold front in Florida lowered dew points, next week's cold front will actually lower the temperature..... and then it goes flat, stationary and we start watching more carefully.

Let's take a look at the Pacific loop.

Watch that moisture moving West to East.

Below is a map for Lan.

Note moisture from Lan moves East.

It's basically a quiet day in the Atlantic Tropical Basin. There is a tropical system in the distant Pacific that will eventually have an impact on our weather. As we know tropical systems like to go towards the poles to transfer energy and that energy moves about the planet pushing the atmosphere up and down and around like a Merry Go Round sometimes. Years ago when I lived in LA they called it a "Pineapple Express" as it came from Hawaii and moved towards the US Pacific Coastline and often there were several bouts of weather in one long line .... like planes coming in to land at LAX. Now days the term that is popular is "atmospheric river" and though that is true it has always been true, but recently it got it's own Hashtag! Every year brings popular terms such as #firehose #gyre and now #amosphericriver stay tuned who knows what else will creep in before 2018 itself creeps onto the scene.

You can see this #atmosphericriver below

Years ago I lived in LA for years and being unfamiliar with late night and early morning low clouds and fog I had much to learn. In Miami it's basically very hot most of the year and then we get a brief respite before the monsoons hit in May and we are back in a soupy, summer time pattern and the hurricane season. In California terms such as "comma clouds" are bandied about on air and everyone waits to see where the weather will set up when the atmospheric river starts to flow towards the West Coast. Our world is incredibly connected in a never ending atmospheric dance... a ballet of sorts.

You can put it in motion below.

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/satellite/ssec/world/global-composite-ir-sat.html

Good meteorologists are always watching the GLOBAL weather.

Global winds.

Global SATS.

You can find many links at Spaghetti Models.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

It's all about linkage as I learned in college. In International Relations we study linkage and patterns that exist and with regard to weather that same theory holds true. What happens in Japan often has an effect on California or Alaska. When I spent summers in Minnesota teaching I listened to the weather radio that was always telling me what was happening in South and North Dakota. Weather is not static it flows here from somewhere else. In California we watched what was happening out in the Pacific and on rare occasions we watched EPAC storms to see if the surf was going to be up at Redondo Beach or not in a few days.

My teacher in LA was Dr. George.

George Fischbeck on KTLA every evening....

...teaching me California weather.

Remember the evening news?

 I watched Bryan Norcross in Florida in the 1990s..

..I watched Dr. George in LA in the 1980s.

I've written about him many times before for many different reasons, but usually when "homesick" for California or when a weather story reminded me of his enthusiastic explanations of what was going to happen over the next few days way before the Euro or the GFS were ever developed. 

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com.br/2010/02/el-nino-story-of-year-barely-spoken.html There's a good video of him doing a forecast. Remember when weathermen gave a forecast (best guess based on their constant researching of current weather patterns while keeping in mind climo? When Dr. George said it was going to rain or not rain... you could count on it. Sort of the way when Bryan Norcross said he didn't have high confidence in the NHC forecast that showed Hurricane Andrew missing Florida... you could run for the car the moment he was over and rush to Publix before the crowds got there. 

Dr. George in the studio.

Old school graphics.

Comments from the article online in his obituary.

http://ktla.com/2015/03/25/longtime-los-angeles-weatherman-george-fishbeck-dies-report/

Again he explained things.

He taught us the "why" behind things.

He didn't tell us what the latest models say.

I'll tell you that models do show lower barometric pressure and an increase in convection in the Caribbean next week. Moisture from Lan and Eastern movement of "weather" will increase chances on our side of the world for tropical development and for those who believe in the MJO it arrives in conjunction with moisture and weather that originated with Lan. Some people, such as Jim Williams, do not hold much by the MJO as he regularly refers to it as "Mostly Junk Observations" you can be the judge, but in reality the real judge is usually (but not always) CLIMO and without the GFS, Euro or even the Canadian Model we would be watching the Caribbean and cold fronts dead in the water across South Florida this time of year. Actually "Jim" says this about the MJO as he is very specific and likes to qualify his thoughts often.

 Models are great, but sometimes they simply tell you what you already known but observing satellite imagery and knowing CLIMO. For newbies ... Climo is "weather history" or the sum total of weather history averaged out over time and almost always Climo is King. Note in Mid October tropical development usually goes up, then it goes down and then again in early November there is a small peak when November Tropical Storms develop again one last time. Some years the hurricane season goes through December.... but officially it's over November 30th. Well, unless we have a storm on the map December 5th...  Every year is different, but patterns persist over the course of time.  Spaghetti Models has the graphic below shown as well as much other information and now that the tropics are quiet you might want to roam around discovering new things and learning.

Good weather people do not just watch the models.

The models change often daily.

They watch the pattern.

They know weather history.

They aren't afraid to go out on a limb.

Note he didn't have to use a Hashtag.

Cranky knows weather.

Dabuh knows weather as well as surfing.

I've learned much from both of them.

Mike shares his information.

And I've learned so much from Jim...

A friend of mine in Miami Beach passed away yesterday. She had been ill for a while and her death was expected for some time, but still it never prepares you for the finality of it and for the flood of memories.  I met Rivka when I was about 17 years old and the local newspaper caught us smiling at the camera at a weekend event at the University of Miami. She always teased me that we were the only ones quick enough to smile for the camera when the reporter showed up. She was a great dancer and we danced often at weddings where she was light on her feet, filled with enthusiasm and joy. She arrived in Miami Beach in the early 1960s when it was a quiet, down and out sort of retirement community where signs on the beach were often posted in Yiddish. Years before Art Deco became popular it was a haven for newly arrived Russian Jews who found cheap rent in places such as the Amsterdam Palace that later became the home of a Versace. In our days each room was divided up into a cheap room and rented out often to families whose children went to the Day Camp at Landow Yeshiva on Miami Beach. We would drop children off and watch as they would run up the staircase into the maze of cheap units rented often to Russian families looking to live on Miami Beach.  In those days she walked young girls down the aisle to get married, Russian Immigrants she spoke to in Yiddish and often an older woman in her 80s that was remarrying that was in her weekly class. She was always proud to see someone get married.. no matter the age. My brother got remarried this past weekend, he is 52 and she'd have been thrilled to watch him get remarried. I danced for her... I danced a lot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casa_Casuarina

In the 1980s and 1990s I ran a woman's organization for Chabad and Rivka pushed me to take on projects that were seemingly impossible but which she knew I could do ... cheerfully pushing me to "just do it Bracha" and I would. Bracha means "blessing" in Hebrew and it's a name I've used. Once she insisted I put on a program for over 300 women with less than 24 hours notice at a catered hall for a large event that the Lubavitcher Rebbe has asked women to make that week. Many communities made a small party in someone's home but Rivka said I should make it "BIG..... invite everyone" and somehow in less than 24 hours with the help of my best friend we got sponsors, food, music and called everyone to attend the dinner party. It was free ... it was fun... I'm pretty sure Rivka and I danced. And, in the end she taught me to move past problems, rise to an occasion and whether taking on a hard job or speaking as a Keynote Speaker (really in public I can be shy) I can hear Rivka telling me "Bracha you can do this!!" and I ... just do it. 

She was awesome and she leaves behind a large family with children, grandchildren and great grandchildren who will also go out into the world and try to make it a better place. She taught us sometimes we screw up, make mistakes and yet we keep on dancing... keep on trying and eventually sometimes we live up to our own standards and achieve our dreams.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

http://collive.com/show_news.rtx?id=47745&alias=mrs-rivka-korf-75-obm