A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, January 28, 2020
7.7 Earthquake in Caribbean! Winter Weather Promises Broken as Winter Forecasts Went Bad.... Thoughts on Kobe and Fog and Life.
7.7 Earthquake in Caribbean.
Between Jamaica and Cuba.
Felt in Miami.
Yet... no coverage at all by CNN or FOX?
As Impeachment was on a "break"
You'd think they'd BREAK IN for a 7.7 Quake?
And that's why we have Twitter I suppose.
This is a developing story.
Imagine the local news in Florida will cover it.
And aftershocks obviously expected.
Possible Tsunami Concerns.
Sometimes Aftershocks can be as big or bigger.
If you have loved ones near this region.
Hope they are safe...
7.7 is huge.
Note in Miami buildings were evacuated.
I have friends in tall buildings in downtown Miami.
They definitely felt it there.
That has to be freaky because....
...in California you go "oh an Earthquake"
But in Miami when a building moves...
... your mind goes bad places.
#BREAKING: People evacuating high-rise buildings in South Florida due to shaking caused by 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Caribbean https://t.co/i9lpILZlsN
The rest of the blog is about the lack of winter.
And how FOG in LA made news sadly...
...with the death of an Icon and 8 others.
As always I'm watching the Water Vapor Loop.
Well unless my friend texts me on a 7.7 Earthquake...
#winter of #2020 that’s the flow. Check out that low. I know it’s not an eye but hey hurricane season distantly on my mind. Sweet tropical dreams. Enjoy the mild cool air. #carolinas calm boring winter. pic.twitter.com/aUYHGrCSkx
I promised a blog today so here it is... a kind of catch up blog with many thoughts. Generally I'll be blogging more regularly now as for now things are somewhat back to normal in my life.
Okay, I'm being honest here.... it's been a beautiful winter in Raleigh North Carolina in that it's been cool and beautiful, not hot all year round and not one of those years when the city shuts down because of some snow and they don't send snow plows out and the salting didn't work because it rained first and we didn't get any of those sandwich winter storms of sleet, snow, sleet then lastly snow so when you walk outside your snow boots sink down after the initial "crunching" sound and your illusion of 5 inches of snow is really snow on top of lasagna layers of sleet and snow. And if you think I'm complaining on that ... yeah as for the next few days ice usually forms on top of the sleet covered snow that's not melting because it's cold and cloudy and school is cancelled for a week and all across America people make fun of people in Raleigh that can't drive in the snow... because they are clueless what it's like when it snows here after rain and the hilly road immediately freezes into a slope that could be used for a bobsled race in the Winter Olympics.
Really those pictures did need a Soundtrack...
...it's a very steep hill that froze immediately!
After 3 minutes of snow....
So no I am not being a Debbie Downer on our Winter Weather this year but I did decide early on that the "models" and the "forecasts" for Winter 2020 were grossly off target and it's going to be a repeat of last year that featured no real snow. Okay, we had a drop in November way too early then nothing, nada, nothing the rest of the winter. I'm not going to go maniac over every snow flake on the 9th day in my phone App showing me "maybe some mixed wintry weather" when I know how this is going to go. Until I see the change happening......we are in a similar pattern as we had in the hurricane season. Wet and rainy along the Gulf of Mexico, Texas gets storms of various kinds... a low forms in the Gulf of Mexico and often crosses Florida and reforms off the Carolinas. Then said storm flirts with the coast of Carolinas sending illusions of snow often discounted as graupel which is really like sleet but for some reason we have to show how academically smart we are with meteorological terms and call it Graupel. See definition below from Google.
Graupel (/ˈɡraʊpəl/; German: [ˈɡʁaʊpl̩]) also called soft hail or snow pellets, is precipitation that forms when supercooled water droplets are collected and freeze on falling snowflakes, forming 2–5 mm (0.08–0.20 in) balls of rime. The term graupel is the German language word for sleet.
Yeah right.
I'm not going to play this game this year.
Either it snows or we get "graupel"
...or Spring comes early.
I've lived most of my life without snow.
I can make it through another Raleigh winter this way.
And if by chance snow surprises us...
I'll be really excited!
If it snows when I'm in Seattle in February.
Oh well....
I'll be in Seattle ;)
I love Seattle.
Life will go on without me crying over missed snow.
The moment I looked up in the Sushi restaurant with my daughter at the screen with Breaking News and saw how foggy it was during the search and rescue I thought immediately of the pictures of the fog from the night before that @icyclone posted on Twitter and I knew deep down inside somehow this was related to that fog. And after living close to a decade in the LA area I know how fast fog can move in ...especially along the coast.
Unless you have lived there you really can't imagine ... well unless you have lived in London. One Saturday I was sitting in the living room where we were staying for the weekend and people had been setting up a huge buffet for lunch for after services at Chabad of Santa Monica in the backyard a few feet from the house. We did that in LA... ate outside never expecting rain. Suddenly despite the fact that it had been a sunny, beautiful LA day I noticed people racing to take apart the buffet table set up and bringing it inside to set up inside. I asked why and someone said nervously while looking outside as the blue sky disappeared "the fog" and I said "sooo??" as coming from Florida "fog" is kind of cool and rare and they added very nervously "the fog is MOVING IN...." and in the time it took to have that brief conversation I saw what looked like a cloud, suddenly in the backyard, obscuring the little building behind the house that was the Synagogue and definitely blocking out the view of even the table that minutes before had been set for a Queen.... being rearranged indoors. All I could think of is "that's fog? It's a massive cloud... that's not real" and I have to tell you we spent the whole day and night and next morning socked in by a cloud of fog that looked surreal in the glow of the streetlight outside the window ... the buildings across the street obscured from view... shadowy, impossible to make out what the signs on the building said. And I wondered...is that what it's like in London when they say it's "think like pea soup" and again the FOG itself had taken on a persona... a personality ... it wasn't just "fog" but something out of a horror movie; except being a weather person it was exciting for me as it was my first real experience with "THE FOG" in what's often Sunny California.
That FOG moved in fast this past Sunday in Calabasas. The pilot was said to be climbing above a "cloud bank" when he slammed into a mountain side killing all aboard including the man who was an Icon and a mentor to many who loved him. I always loved Calabasas as we'd drive around there often sometimes on our way down to Malibu as my in-laws lived in Northridge and we'd take long Sunday drives often when the weather was nice and we were in the mood. I always loved the way the shadows would fall as you drove through the hills of Calabasas a place now popular for the homes of movie stars and now remembered as the place where Kobe Bryant died. That's sad.
My brother in Greece mentioned it being foggy recently... the same day it had been foggy in Raleigh and my brother in Miami posted pics on Twitter today of the fog in Miami, but the fog in Miami is never as thick as it is when it "moves in fast" in California.
Amazing how fog has been such an issue there year.
In Miami... in Raleigh... in Calabasas.
So yeah that's it from me today.
I'll be more regular this week and next.
Shorter blogs.
Less catching up and random thoughts.
My daughter who graduated from NC State was here.
Fun doing fun things with her....
She's back in Miami.
Stopping every time she sees a dog to pet it.
Really...
:)
(because I raised her right she asks the owner first!)
:)
Very sad story on Kobe and the other 8 people who died.
Sad for snow lovers in Raleigh this year.
But I'm enjoying the beautiful blue skies.
The cool air as if it's air conditioned inside !!
The chance that it could snow maybe a flake LOL.
And well weather is what it is...
... climate is long term.
Climatology will say there's a chance.
Only time will tell.
Inspirational Icons are good.
Choose wisely.
Hopefully one day you too
will be an Icon to someone.
Live your life to the fullest.
Do good.
Be happy.
Enjoy the weather you have....
.... see the silver lining.
And careful what you wish for...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Twitter = mostly weather
Instagram = weather, make up, random life pictures..
Ps.......
I'm going to leave you with this great Tweet by Cranky ... if you are going to bug him for a "sound track" note he will give you one ........but it might not be the one you wanted. For me it was a real blast from the past so I'm smiling.
As I have mentioned previous there is moisture congregating.
Moisture hanging out and lingering is the first sign.
That goes for the Pacific and the Atlantic.
Storms fly off of South America and linger in the EPAC.
That process is the same as us watching Africa for storms.
Note the green color in the second middle graphic.
Rain expected... heightened potential.
Note the bottom middle pattern.
Tropical intensity index bright red.
Note some orange is creeping into the Caribbean.
I suppose we can call this Tropical Hollywood Squares :)
The truth is I love Mike's mind the way I love Anastasia eye shadow palettes in that they are put together perfectly to draw you in and make you want more. Mike, who plays at being silly and is silly, is brilliant and displays his graphics in such a way as to help you see the larger picture. They are positioned in a way to help you understand the various factors in the type of weather you are trying to find. Understanding Tropical Meteorology is a whole different layer of meteorology than asking if it will snow this week or when the drought might end. Tropical meteorology and forecasting is complicated as there are so many factors that are added it's like trying to taste one flavor while eating the Kitchen Sink Ice Cream Bowl at a late night trip to your favorite ice cream parlor. And when I say Ice Cream Parlor I mean the real thing not Menchie's which is fun but not a real Ice Cream Parlor! For those who drink it's like trying to taste the gin in a Long Island Ice Tea!
Factors are many and how they interact is complicated.
Shear forecasts.
Warm Water Temperatures.
Saharan Dust Forecasts.
MJO
El Nino
The list goes on and on.
There's a simple list and a complicated one.
Pick your favorite flavor.
Yet one factor adds to or detracts from the sum total.
The sum total is this today.
Epac season has started.
The names for the Eastern PACIFIC are below.
We will not be seeing Flossie or Zelda in the Atlantic.
We will be seeing Fernand and Gabrielle.
Will we see Melissa in the Atlantic? Maybe.
This is the time of year that SAL flows....
And tornado chasers chase.
And warm water around Florida ups the ante for problems.
Convection in the Bahamas.
Or odd systems forming Mid Atlantic going Subtropical.
This is what we look for the in the Atlantic this time of year.
And usually the Epac gets a storm first.
No two years are exactly alike.
So stay tuned and make sure you got what you need.
Yes as a child I saw hail like that in the picture above.
The hail covered the whole school yard and turned it white!
It was as close as I got for many years to real snow.
More dangerous than snow as it falls hard not softly.
What's your favorite weather to follow?
WATERSPOUT! Every time I see a water spout I am in awe— big reason I got into meteorology (saw them on Lake Michigan as a kid)— yesterday
Brooke Suzanne and her daughter on spring break on Anna Maria Island, Florida got to see one. It stayed over the ocean thankfully. pic.twitter.com/q7izg6prlD
I love when meteorologists share why they love weather.
How it began and with what kind of weather.
My family owned property on Anna Maria Island back in the 1920s when they were promoting it and Holmes Beach during the Real Estate Boom of the Roaring 20s. Love of weather is in the genes it seems as I heard my Great Great Grandfather loved to watch the thunderstorms form out on Tampa Bay from his front porch. Beautiful spit of land it is but if another Tampa Bay Hurricane like the 1921 hurricane comes through it would do tremendous damage on the scale of Hurricane Michael to that beautiful sliver of beach in what looks like a tropical paradise.
Okay so I'm a hurricane person.
Love snow, thunderstorms and hail.
But hurricane is where it's at for me.
Born and bred in Miami.
My father went to University of Miami...
...home of the Hurricanes.
Nuff said.
So let's talk Hurricane Season 2019.
This is a very good graphic below of the current state of the oceans on Planet Earth. Remembering that things change and evolve over time so what is cool now will warm up in August and September to some degree as we saw last year after the media hooplah over a good observation made on how the MDR was cool this time of year and that could help us have an easier hurricane season months later. The problem in America (where most of us live) is it's not about where they form but where they make landfall. When the Gulf of Mexico or the water close in along the East Coast is bubbly a weak storm can intensify rapidly as it is moves towards landfall. The 1935 Great Labor Day Hurricane, Michael, Katrina and Andrew are prime examples of storms that intensified in our part of the world not out in the MDR where many that do intensify fast and then turn into Fish Storms swimming up into the MDR bothering no one... heard from never more.
Oceans are regarded as the memory of the Earth's climate system. That's why we keep a close eye on them 🌊
Here's an update:
1️⃣ El Niño
2️⃣ Atlantic warm pool
3️⃣ Ningaloo Niña
4️⃣ Pacific warm pool
5️⃣ New Zealand marine heatwave
6️⃣ Cooler deep tropical Atlantic
7️⃣ Indian warm pool pic.twitter.com/Cw61BaDP9X
So my concern with this map is obviously #2 and that is something to think on more than El Ninos far out in the ocean or cool pools of water on the other side of the globe. But as I love maps I do love to watch weather everywhere and our atmospheric patterns connect so I'm always watching the water vapor loop or some such loop watching it all evolve.
Great progression of weather systems.
Yesterday's hail storm is gone moving Eastbound.
Another system may form and hug the coast.
Maybe.
I know this because Cranky said so.
And Dabuh has been pointing it out.
And, I'm watching the models and the loops.
Maybe.
Patterns repeat.
If this pattern persists we could have Subtropicals form close in.
Or Tropical Storms forming close in...
Whenever I think on 2012 I always remember
Alberto and Beryl.
Media was filled with "early season development....
...does not mean a busy season"
They were wrong.
After Alberto and Beryl I remember Sandy.
It was a busy season.
Never judge a hurricane season....
.... until it's in the rear view mirror.
Divide the image of the 2012 Hurricane Season in half.
The systems that formed close in and made landfall.
And the ones that formed in the MDR.
Yes two made it to landfall.
The rest swam out to sea.
But it was a dangerous season for this part of the tropics.
Something to think on as we move towards June 1st.
Or storms that form before the start of the Hurricane Season.
The end is often concealed in the beginning.
But we don't see that until we look back.
2012 started early.....
.... and ended late.
If you aren't into baseball you might want to read a book.
Great book by one of the earliest, best ecologists around.
Back at the turn of the century... the last one.
Ralph Munroe built sailboats.
He built the first real home in Coconut Grove.
He recorded weather events in his journals.
He knew Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay well.
He sailed everywhere....
...he told them not to build the Overseas Railroad the way they did.
He told them it would be catastrophic in a hurricane.
It's a great read, you can get lost for days in that book.
I know because I do often as I own it.
It's on my top shelf where my favorite books are kept.
Have a great day and hope things evolve for you today the way you want them to....
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Instagram and Twitter ... follow me there for real time updates.
Ps.... nice song stuck in my head now .. I'm not really a Joni Mitchell person. I'm more a Melanie and Judy Collins type from that era though currently love Maren Morris ;) but she understood seasons and lyrics and words and music so posting the song. Her voice is too high for me. Love the lyrics.
Wintry February Reminder That We Aren't in Spring Yet... Tho Spring Keeps Trying to Sneak In. Thoughts on Hurricane Irma
I'm lying in bed under the covers.
Doing some work but staying under the cover.
My fake fireplace floor heater is on :)
Notes and notebooks scattered about my bed.
I decided to stay in today.
Note the red on the Maple Tree....
It's budding.
Rain not snow is falling.
Though some flakes and sleet fell last night.
Feels like the high 20s or low 30s out there today.
I don't go out in that weather unless I'm in NY.
I'm in Raleigh. Staying in bed.
I'll do some Yoga for exercise ;)
So I am home in my Carolina home and that's good, because I got here in time to watch Spring try to sneak in before the actual start of even meteorological Spring. That happens when the temperatures are very warm for a week or two in early February and Mother Nature gets all discombobulated and decides to allow the first few blooming trees of Spring to bloom a bit early. There are some white pear blossoms and that bright pink purple blossom that's part of the magnolia family but looks more like an orchid. The maple tree had the slightest reddish blush on it when I went to Miami and I came home to small little red buds unfolding fast to bring it back to it's normal red color that looks Christmas like against the dark forever green Carolina Pine trees. A neighbor behind me has his fireplace going I suppose trying to stay in Winter mode just a little bit longer. I like my fake fireplace with different color flames dancing about as the warm air comes out from down below and takes the chill out of the room and makes me feel cozier.
I've always been that type of person with dual lives, dual loves, two best friends and multiple interests so I don't feel conflicted over loving Carolina and also calling Miami my home and a city I love. I am who I am and I don't make excuses or pretend and own up to who I am and what you see is really what you get... though some here know me way better than others and possibly better than I know myself!
Last night we had a really short bout of winter weather as in "winter precipt" as in SLEET!
Sleet came down to the ground.
Like shards of glass under the street light.
Covering the windows of the cars....
... with fake promises of snow.
And then it began to rain again.
RDU had traces of snow.
I think I saw some mixed in with the rain.
Hard to say and too cold outside to linger.
Amazing how ten minutes of sleet...
...looked like icy crystals on the glass.
Too far away from Hurricane Season to bore you with endless stories of hurricane history but I warn you they are coming. I'm putting together my "favorite" hurricanes to discuss and thoughts on what this coming hurricane season may bring. But really what is in an early season forecast? I wonder, because almost everyone forecast a very cold, wintry winter in the East ... East of the Appalachians and this winter has been all West Coast Winter Storms and East Coast blasts of moisture rushing in from the Gulf of Mexico with storms training over the beach towns that Hurricane Michael took aim at ...... and if that is not some sort of pattern I don't know what is.
My son in Miami calls this "look" in Raleigh that "dead winter look" whereas I call it "I can see the sky I love it" look. I love looking through the lacy branches of the trees with the sky beyond peeking through everywhere that turns into a solid green canopy of verdant, Carolina green scenery. Winter allows you to see what's underneath it all and it allows you to see the beauty of each branch and the shape and form of the tree and it's trunks reaching up into the Carolina sky that today is gray not blue. Tomorrow is another day.
So this Wintry Stew is shown below. You get the feel and taste of the winter buffet being presented for lunch today along most of the East Coast. Spoiler Alert New York is finally getting the snow they have been wishing for all winter. Complaints will follow soon I am sure. DC and adjacent Baltimore getting snow and I'm not following Virginia's weather but sure they got more than Raleigh got of snow. Boone got snow and that's where the snow should fall obviously. Raleigh is like Camelot... it snows magically at midnight then disappears as if it was never really there. It's also snowing in Blowing Rock but I'm not there I'm in Raleigh getting rain, rain and rain.
WXBRAD @ Instagram and Twitter.
One of the region's best weather people.
I often joke I'm moving to Charlotte just because of him!
Charlotte is on my short list of places to move.
Then my Granddaughter Charlotte could come visit me.
That's her Daddy's office view. You could have that view too if you bought a place in paradise to use all year or just as a winter hideaway. Miss Charlotte lives in a tropical paradise. Where do you live? Or more so . . . are you happy where you live? Where would you want to live? Are you one with your environment or do you feel like a fish out of water wishing you were in Biscayne Bay or near Pawley's Island?
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm