A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, November 21, 2019
Sebastien.... NHC Forecasts Smooth, Naked Sebastien to Become a Hurricane.
Okay at least we can see our TS from outer space.
Up close it's really attaching to that rope...
...that's gonna pull it up, up and away
Pretty sure different regimes at the NHC could each handle #Sebastian differently. Caught on a rope. Going out to sea. Could put on a show temporarily & it’s forecast to be a #hurricanepic.twitter.com/QW1ln9U5g5
June Too Soon. Tropical Miami History. South Florida and the Weather Always Connected. Are Hurricanes Good or Bad? It's ALL a Matter of Perspective... Back When It Was Like Walmart Delivered... Or Amazon Prime Pirate Style
There are no hurricanes today in the Atlantic Basin.
There are no hurricane in the EPAC.
There's a chance the EPAC may fire up soon.
There's long range talk the Atlantic will spark up in July.
Not talking July 1st but sometime after July 4th.
Hopefully after July 4th as beaches need the revenue.
Hate to see July 4th Weekend get ruined.
Again this year hurricanes close in are a concern.
It's a "normal" sort of year.
Quiet in June while SAL dances in the Atlantic.
Shear is there....
...and the trade winds have not kicked in yet.
Waves look healthy.
The High is healthy.
Now is the time to prepare.
It's also a good time to learn up on Hurricane History.
That's a way of saying...
Learn from History or you'll be sorry ;)
Also today's post is about perspective.
History is written from the perspective of the subject.
Sometimes hurricanes are good.
Sometimes hurricanes are horrible.
Sometimes freezes are disasters.
Sometimes freezes are the start of something wonderful!
Speaking of history. I spent the day reading and reviewing the situation.
Inspiration comes from many places when you are a writer and sometimes the best inspiration comes from your favorite books that too often sit on the bookcase staring back at you wondering why you don't pick them up and read them a bit. I have many bookcases yet my main one is filled with my most loved books and that's saying a lot as I love many books. I also worked as a librarian and had my first shot at books weeded and seeded from the collection! My bedroom bookcase is packed tight with the various topics of my life arranged carefully as the top shelf is my "must take with me if I ever have to leave fast favorite can't live without books" and no I am not kidding. It's a mix of history, plays and literature by various authors as well as some much loved Non-Fiction such as "The Nine Nations of America" and a book I mention often about Commodore Ralph Munroe who was one of the first people to love and write about Miami. I mention that book often as it's filled with tropical descriptions of early Miami filled with many references to it's very tropical weather. In 1953 Helen Muir wrote a book titled "Miami, U.S.A" and it's pretty much a bible for any Miami historian to own as nothing really much has changed about the reasons why people move to Miami, why they stay despite the humidity and why they love it so much. Funny how a book from 1953 is as timely today as it was when it was written even though the density and design of Miami has changed exponentially. The Nine Nations of America is as relevant today as it was when written back in the 1970s. He nailed the culture, demography and character of the U.S.A. region by region with his own boundaries which still exist including the problems of the old Foundry, Ecotopia and the Islands where he corrected placed South Florida vs Tallahassee and Jacksonville that are in Dixie. He updated the book but to me the first book is as true today as it was when it was written. Helen Muir updated her book over time as well but she nailed the Miami spirit be it people living by the bay in the 1880s or my son walking along the sea wall in Miami Shores staring out at the water, the clouds, the sky and feeling the breeze as the water laps against the sea wall at high tide. http://www.waymarking.com/waymarks/WMXXTN
You can update a book, but the main premise over time is what sells and makes it a classic. The Great Gatsby has had many different cover photos over time and multitudes of books have been written to explain what they think F. Scott Fitzgerald meant in his short novel but the book itself remains supremely one of the best books written on many levels. But this is about weather and Miami and hurricanes so let's move on to the book in question and why I'm writing and trying to explain to you how Miami is intricately connected in every way from the beginning with weather. Helen Muir was a writer, a reporter that did incredibly, deep detective work in her research for this book ... enough to make Lois Lane proud.
Early Downtown Miami and the Miami River.
Read the previous post for more about this trading post!
The thin line in the background is a sandbar...
... now known as Miami Beach.
One of her first references to the early settlers of Miami who lived in small settlements along the bay along the narrow rock ridge that didn't flood and made travel from place to place possible is shown below. Understand it was life back before planes flew to Miami and before trains rolled into Miami; back when the only way you could get there realistically was a schooner on it's way to Key West that put into port briefly to drop off mail by the Brickell Family Trading Post. In 1891 when my Great Great Grandfather was becoming an American Citizen or more so a "Citizen of Key West" Julia Tuttle "the Mother of Miami" was just moving permanently to the small town on the banks of the Miami River. Miami was just a dream in Julia's mind and she was determined to lure some wealthy investor down to Miami along with the railroad and her investor of choice became Henry Flagler and he did indeed extend the railroad down to Miami opening up Miami for business beyond the day to day life of a trading post. Conchs sailed over from the Bahamas and Crackers made their way down sometimes over land along the beach side using small boats to Miami from Georgia and the Carolinas, but once the railroad chugged into town Miami was on it's way to becoming a real metropolis of the future.
"The land on which these people lived was a rock ridge, a rim of rock with the sea on one side and the watery expanse of the Everglades on the other. The land was a mere backdrop for the action which took place on the water". She goes on to describe the beauty of Biscayne Bay, the Florida Reef and tales of early pirates and wreckers. Yes wreckers in Miami not just Key West as wreckers were all the rage back in the day. The book continues on up to the early 2000s, but it's description of early Miami life and the weather is as good as it gets.
Note how Miss Helen refers to hurricanes early on in the book as more a matter of luck and bounty than danger and disaster. Also note Miami used to be very Southern with a touch of the Bahamas running through it and yes danger and disaster did come eventually in 1926. with the Great Miami Hurricane.
"Hurricane weather was a pure lark. A good hurricane would wash in plenty of wreckage: cheese and candles, soap and bags of flour, fine old wines and whisky. The popular wreck cry was "Providence, bad machinery and whisky, and worse navigation sent us one." While the men were "off wrecking" the women got together for company. The preferred wreck was one that brought "canned foods, dry goods, household furniture and baby carriages" and the one they cared for the least was a ship loaded with stuffed olives."
Yes the early settlers who built their homes often with drift wood had wish lists for things the sea might toss up after a passing hurricane or small tropical disturbance blew providence their way. Back before the train and planes and roads that brought Model T Fords to Miami there was a schooner that went down to Key West if someone was ill or needed to catch a ship somewhere else. Miami was remote and a hurricane brought the world to you back then and still can though wrecking has gone out of style. Whether it's Floating Grouper or before that Rum Running or Smuggling Guns to Cuba to help with the Cuban War of Independence (that my Great Uncles I believe did when they were very young) South Florida has always been a place where things show up one way or the other and often a close call from a passing hurricane could toss up anything from a Grand Piano to a Baby Bassinet or food to eat or fabric to make clothes from or well you just never knew until you found it walking along the shore. Today after any big storm you see fleets of men usually holding devices sifting through the sand for someone's lost treasure.
It's all a matter of priority and how you look at life. Jack Stark an incredible writer wrote an article about the 1926 Hurricane and his experiences in Hurricane Andrew as he lived through both of them. One of the better points he made from the 1926 Hurricane was that life went back to normal a lot faster after that hurricane than after Hurricane Andrew. The bigger a city is, the more complex it is - the harder it is to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. I read old articles in my "hurricane file" from the South Florida Historical Museum today. Incredible, truly as in the old days when people writing long meant fluid, descriptive passages describing the ocean, the waves, the wind and the sound of the howling wind. More on that later this week but it's worth noting this passage from that article below.
"I walked the beach shoreline the afternoon before the storm, joining many others lured there by the huge waves coming in like layers of suds on green beer. Newly arrived to live in Florida, I watched in awe as red snappers and groupers were tossed ashore at my feet to flop around on the wet beach. These were reef dwellers, some of them living three miles offshore." Note when the reef dweller fish (really fish not Square Groupers) get tossed at your feet as a storm surge is delivering foamy surf and a nonstop strong wind in your face you better have prepared to ride out the Major Hurricane where you live and pray you judged the situation accurately or have plans to get out of Dodge damn fast. I've only seen that happen a few times and it was either late in the afternoon before Hurricane Andrew arrived or when Hurricane Floyd was passing by just off shore sending sea foam like I've never seen all over the beach. Note after the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane Miami Beach was covered from the Collins Avenue to Alton Road in several feet of sad that needed to be removed, dug up and at one point the famous elephant Rosie was put to use dragging a contraption behind her to drag the sand back to the ocean. Again I'll remind you over and over Miami Beach was a sandbar covered with mangroves, swamps and a beach on the ocean side.
The moral of this story is if any kind of grouper gets tossed up in huge quantities on Miami Beach there was usually a storm out there somewhere....
Again it's all about perspective and how one horrible, tragic, historically terrible event ends up being the reason someone, somewhere made money or history. The winter of 1894-1895 was considered the Great Freeze as freezing weather complete with snow and ice made it most of the way down the Florida Peninsular. It was kind of chilly up there in Daytona Beach and near Tampa citrus trees froze as solid as the frozen orange juice you find in the freezer in Publix. While most of Florida suffered through one of the coldest winters in recorded history Miss Julia Tuttle, a lovely, smart, cultured widow who seemed to have a great business head and knew how to flirt sent Henry Flagler a box of oranges with blossoms still in tact that had not frozen down in Miami which I've already pointed out is really part of the Islands vs the Continental United States. Officially it's the U.S.A. but in all other ways it's the Caribbean Island capital and it's most beautiful city in my opinion. South of the Lake the climate is different from the rest of Florida as it's Subtropical and Henry Flagler agreed finally to make a deal with Miss Tuttle who is forever known as the Mother of Miami.
For decades after Miami was dotted with little Fruit Stands to lure the tourist into buying fresh fruit for their vacation and to sign up to ship fresh fruit to their relatives as a present for the holidays or just a reminder that "while you were shoveling snow I got to vacation in Miami and thought to send you some oranges" and now you know the rest of the story. Yes, Miami had orange groves back then and every family I knew had at least one citrus tree in their yard when we were growing up. We had an orange tree at my Grandma Mary's house that was a pain in the ass to climb and a kumquat tree my cousin and I used to use as it provided us with greenish orange pellets to throw at each other until someone came out of the house and screamed "leave my kumquats alone!!" Years later in SW Miami we had a Key Lime tree, really a real Key Lime tree not a lemon tree nor a lime tree but a real honest to goodness Key Lime Tree; we made cold limeade often that was refreshing and much easier to make than a Key Lime Pie...
So yes everything is a matter of perspective. To early Miami people who lived along the rock ridge near the Bay hurricanes could bring a bounty so great that people actually had wish lists for what they hoped to find after a wreck. And the Great Freeze was as horrible as it gets but for Miami it was the golden chalice or liquid gold as it convinced Henry Flagler to extend his railroad to Miami and help build Miami into the city that so many people love. Yes, people love to complain about Miami and it's crime or it's construction or it's congested highways or how it will one day become the next Atlantis yet all media outlets know that an article about Miami sells way better than say Cleveland Ohio where many early Miamians came from to escape freezing winter and breathe the healthy air and feel the beneficial breeze from Biscayne Bay.
Perspective in life is everything.
Thank you for reading along today as I take some time writing about things I love of a tropical nature. There are no hurricanes today and rather than write empty meaningless blogs saying over and over that it's June and the shear is too strong and the Saharan Dust is visiting the Caribbean taking up most of the Atlantic as it does every June and MJO may come to our basin in early July and yes the waves are strong but the shear is still strong and nothing is happening I'd rather write a bit and hope your learn a lot.
Note.........for those who were wondering it seems fronts continued to play a role in the weather as the year progressed and 1895 was indeed a busy enough hurricane season. You can see where the storms traced the High Pressure tugged North by fronts still on the move deep into the Hurricane Season.
You can see the high.
You can see the interaction of cold fronts.
That's what it is usually all about.
Where the High ends.
Where and when cold fronts tug at tropical weather.
Something to think about........
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for real time updates.
Ps... After the 1926 Hurricane when the UM was first founded.
Yes as a child I saw hail like that in the picture above.
The hail covered the whole school yard and turned it white!
It was as close as I got for many years to real snow.
More dangerous than snow as it falls hard not softly.
What's your favorite weather to follow?
WATERSPOUT! Every time I see a water spout I am in awe— big reason I got into meteorology (saw them on Lake Michigan as a kid)— yesterday
Brooke Suzanne and her daughter on spring break on Anna Maria Island, Florida got to see one. It stayed over the ocean thankfully. pic.twitter.com/q7izg6prlD
I love when meteorologists share why they love weather.
How it began and with what kind of weather.
My family owned property on Anna Maria Island back in the 1920s when they were promoting it and Holmes Beach during the Real Estate Boom of the Roaring 20s. Love of weather is in the genes it seems as I heard my Great Great Grandfather loved to watch the thunderstorms form out on Tampa Bay from his front porch. Beautiful spit of land it is but if another Tampa Bay Hurricane like the 1921 hurricane comes through it would do tremendous damage on the scale of Hurricane Michael to that beautiful sliver of beach in what looks like a tropical paradise.
Okay so I'm a hurricane person.
Love snow, thunderstorms and hail.
But hurricane is where it's at for me.
Born and bred in Miami.
My father went to University of Miami...
...home of the Hurricanes.
Nuff said.
So let's talk Hurricane Season 2019.
This is a very good graphic below of the current state of the oceans on Planet Earth. Remembering that things change and evolve over time so what is cool now will warm up in August and September to some degree as we saw last year after the media hooplah over a good observation made on how the MDR was cool this time of year and that could help us have an easier hurricane season months later. The problem in America (where most of us live) is it's not about where they form but where they make landfall. When the Gulf of Mexico or the water close in along the East Coast is bubbly a weak storm can intensify rapidly as it is moves towards landfall. The 1935 Great Labor Day Hurricane, Michael, Katrina and Andrew are prime examples of storms that intensified in our part of the world not out in the MDR where many that do intensify fast and then turn into Fish Storms swimming up into the MDR bothering no one... heard from never more.
Oceans are regarded as the memory of the Earth's climate system. That's why we keep a close eye on them 🌊
Here's an update:
1️⃣ El Niño
2️⃣ Atlantic warm pool
3️⃣ Ningaloo Niña
4️⃣ Pacific warm pool
5️⃣ New Zealand marine heatwave
6️⃣ Cooler deep tropical Atlantic
7️⃣ Indian warm pool pic.twitter.com/Cw61BaDP9X
So my concern with this map is obviously #2 and that is something to think on more than El Ninos far out in the ocean or cool pools of water on the other side of the globe. But as I love maps I do love to watch weather everywhere and our atmospheric patterns connect so I'm always watching the water vapor loop or some such loop watching it all evolve.
Great progression of weather systems.
Yesterday's hail storm is gone moving Eastbound.
Another system may form and hug the coast.
Maybe.
I know this because Cranky said so.
And Dabuh has been pointing it out.
And, I'm watching the models and the loops.
Maybe.
Patterns repeat.
If this pattern persists we could have Subtropicals form close in.
Or Tropical Storms forming close in...
Whenever I think on 2012 I always remember
Alberto and Beryl.
Media was filled with "early season development....
...does not mean a busy season"
They were wrong.
After Alberto and Beryl I remember Sandy.
It was a busy season.
Never judge a hurricane season....
.... until it's in the rear view mirror.
Divide the image of the 2012 Hurricane Season in half.
The systems that formed close in and made landfall.
And the ones that formed in the MDR.
Yes two made it to landfall.
The rest swam out to sea.
But it was a dangerous season for this part of the tropics.
Something to think on as we move towards June 1st.
Or storms that form before the start of the Hurricane Season.
The end is often concealed in the beginning.
But we don't see that until we look back.
2012 started early.....
.... and ended late.
If you aren't into baseball you might want to read a book.
Great book by one of the earliest, best ecologists around.
Back at the turn of the century... the last one.
Ralph Munroe built sailboats.
He built the first real home in Coconut Grove.
He recorded weather events in his journals.
He knew Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay well.
He sailed everywhere....
...he told them not to build the Overseas Railroad the way they did.
He told them it would be catastrophic in a hurricane.
It's a great read, you can get lost for days in that book.
I know because I do often as I own it.
It's on my top shelf where my favorite books are kept.
Have a great day and hope things evolve for you today the way you want them to....
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Instagram and Twitter ... follow me there for real time updates.
Ps.... nice song stuck in my head now .. I'm not really a Joni Mitchell person. I'm more a Melanie and Judy Collins type from that era though currently love Maren Morris ;) but she understood seasons and lyrics and words and music so posting the song. Her voice is too high for me. Love the lyrics.
Waiting on Tornado Season... Winter Leaving Slowly... Hurricane Season 34 Days Away. Ever Try to Understand Storm Chasers?
It's that time of year when we switch over from worrying on winter storms to wondering where the Spring storms are and when the Hurricane Season will really get going. Many are calling for an active early part of the Hurricane Season that being June/July/August with the possibility of a May named storm forming. You can see from the loop above that "cold fronts" are still moving down towards South Florida. Severe weather for now is not showing it's face across the US in any real way.
Note winter has for the most part departed.
TWC has almost sounded apologetic of late regarding the lack of tornado chasing coverage. That may change in the next week or so but for now there has been a curious lack of tornadoes to talk about. In the realm of time everything has it's season. Baseball begins, then we watch our storm chaser friends chase tornadoes, then as the NFL Draft gets underway we count down the days until the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. There are 34 days to go; I know there are 34 days to go because my friend who has a count down going told me so. To everything there is a season and I'm sure at some point we will be watching those storms clashing on the plains somewhere as one unmovable force meets another and the winds begin to spin up into Twisters. It's just a matter of time....
Also it's just a matter of time that people will need hurricane supplies on hand. Should you have a jar of Jerusalem Artichoke Relish someone gave you that you can't figure out what to do with... hold onto it because it will spice up your hurricane picnic as you eat the remains of what was in the fridge once the power is out come September... Personally I stock up on cans of premade Cuban Coffee for my caffeine addiction in case the power goes out. To each his own.
And know that when the weather is quiet in one part of the world it is often raging somewhere else. In Israel this past week friends who made Aliyah from Miami were posting one video after another of what looked like Miami May Monsoons. Thunder, lightning and flash flooding both in the city and out in the Negev in areas that are known for flash flooding. People died, dams collapsed, rivers ran wild and weather doesn't pay attention to politics when it comes to who lives or who dies. Weather is an equal opportunity provider of tragedy.
My suggestion to you is to assess your needs be it Severe Weather, Tornadoes or Hurricanes and stock up on what you can to help you survive. And, as always stay in top of late breaking weather be it an App or the old school weather radio or even asking Alexa. As for me I'm addicted to Mikes Weather Page and www.spaghettimodels.com.
And, if you are finding yourself missing tornado coverage you may want to read a good book that explains how the mind of a storm chaser or meteorologist works. The how and why and just when it happens that a person falls in love passionately and obsessively with some form of weather. Whether you are obsessed with hurricanes or hail or tornadoes the process is the same in the way you fall in love and begin to follow the weather even if it means chasing the weather as some of us have done. Spoiler Alert once you do it .... you may be hooked for a life time and you may indeed also become hooked on weather.
I read the book on my way to Seattle and I have to tell you it was my fastest trip to Seattle ever. Time which seems to hang still on a long set of flights unless you are the type to fall asleep and I am not.... moved fast the way an approaching line of storms roll across the Plains or the way a squall in the outer bands of a strong hurricane races across a city warning people it's time to hurry up and finish preparations because the hurricane is almost here. It's a good read. I'd recommend it personally to a psychologist as it is as much about how the human brain works as it is about barometric pressure and dry lines and humidity.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... I didn't know Tim Samaras but I knew of him from his friends and his incredible pictures and impressive life work. I watched the funeral and pondered on how one minute you're wishing Carl Young happy birthday and suddenly he along with Tim and his son were gone with the wind. That's true. And, we've all wondered when someone would actually die in a storm that they were chasing while standing at the beach on rocks with the wind ripping at you trying to see in the middle of a strong squall. We've been lucky or maybe that was just dumb luck hard to say. I will say that a life lived fully and shared with people who you enjoy being with is.... well a life well lived.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
