Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Hail, Waterspouts and Thoughts on the 2019 Hurricane Season. Will It Have An Early Start Along the SE Coast This Year? Maybe...



Great picture of yesterday's Fake Snow in Florida.
Thanks Mike.... you're an angel!
Why is he an angel? So many reasons.

Note this Tweet on yesterday's low off the FL coast.
And remember it while reading later in this blog.
It's relevant possibly to this coming hurricane season.



Yes as a child I saw hail like that in the picture above.
The hail covered the whole school yard and turned it white!
It was as close as I got for many years to real snow.
More dangerous than snow as it falls hard not softly.

What's your favorite weather to follow?



I love when meteorologists share why they love weather.
How it began and with what kind of weather.

My family owned property on Anna Maria Island back in the 1920s when they were promoting it and Holmes Beach during the Real Estate Boom of the Roaring 20s. Love of weather is in the genes it seems as I heard my Great Great Grandfather loved to watch the thunderstorms form out on Tampa Bay from his front porch. Beautiful spit of land it is but if another Tampa Bay Hurricane like the 1921 hurricane comes through it would do tremendous damage on the scale of Hurricane Michael to that beautiful sliver of beach in what looks like a tropical paradise.

Okay so I'm a hurricane person.
Love snow, thunderstorms and hail.
But hurricane is where it's at for me.
Born and bred in Miami.
My father went to University of Miami...
...home of the Hurricanes.
Nuff said.

So let's talk Hurricane Season 2019.

This is a very good graphic below of the current state of the oceans on Planet Earth. Remembering that things change and evolve over time so what is cool now will warm up in August and September to some degree as we saw last year after the media hooplah over a good observation made on how the MDR was cool this time of year and that could help us have an easier hurricane season months later. The problem in America (where most of us live) is it's not about where they form but where they make landfall. When the Gulf of Mexico or the water close in along the East Coast is bubbly a weak storm can intensify rapidly as it is moves towards landfall. The 1935 Great Labor Day Hurricane, Michael, Katrina and Andrew are prime examples of storms that intensified in our part of the world not out in the MDR where many that do intensify fast and then turn into Fish Storms swimming up into the MDR bothering no one... heard from never more.



So my concern with this map is obviously #2 and that is something to think on more than El Ninos far out in the ocean or cool pools of water on the other side of the globe. But as I love maps I do love to watch weather everywhere and our atmospheric patterns connect so I'm always watching the water vapor loop or some such loop watching it all evolve.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Great progression of weather systems.
Yesterday's hail storm is gone moving Eastbound.
Another system may form and hug the coast.
Maybe.



I know this because Cranky said so.
And Dabuh has been pointing it out.
And, I'm watching the models and the loops.
Maybe.

Patterns repeat.
If this pattern persists we could have Subtropicals form close in.
Or Tropical Storms forming close in...
Whenever I think on 2012 I always remember 


Alberto and Beryl.
Media was filled with "early season development....
...does not mean a busy season"
They were wrong.

After Alberto and Beryl I remember Sandy.
It was a busy season.
Never judge a hurricane season....
.... until it's in the rear view mirror.


Divide the image of the 2012 Hurricane Season in half.
The systems that formed close in and made landfall.
And the ones that formed in the MDR.
Yes two made it to landfall.
The rest swam out to sea.
But it was a dangerous season for this part of the tropics.


Something to think on as we move towards June 1st.
Or storms that form before the start of the Hurricane Season.
The end is often concealed in the beginning.
But we don't see that until we look back.
2012 started early.....
.... and ended late.

If you aren't into baseball you might want to read a book.
Great book by one of the earliest, best ecologists around.
Back at the turn of the century... the last one.
Ralph Munroe built sailboats.
He built the first real home in Coconut Grove.
He recorded weather events in his journals.
He knew Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay well.
He sailed everywhere....
...he told them not to build the Overseas Railroad the way they did.
He told them it would be catastrophic in a hurricane.
It's a great read, you can get lost for days in that book.
I know because I do often as I own it.
It's on my top shelf where my favorite books are kept.



https://www.amazon.com/Commodores-Story-Ralph-Middleton-Munroe/dp/0935761004

Have a great day and hope things evolve for you today the way you want them to.... 

Besos BobbiStorm 
@bobbistorm on Instagram and Twitter ... follow me there for real time updates.

Ps.... nice song stuck in my head now .. I'm not really a Joni Mitchell person. I'm more a Melanie and Judy Collins type from that era though currently love Maren Morris ;) but  she understood seasons and lyrics and words and music so posting the song. Her voice is too high for me. Love the lyrics.


yes the seasons they go round and round.... 
baseball season gives fans something to do...
and chasers chase tornadoes on the Plains
soon the Hurricane Season appears in view.













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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:17 AM 20 comments